Three Schools of Presidential Evaluation 1

Presidential Evaluation: Some Questions 2 I. Do great crises encourage great presidential performance?  Do great times make for great leadership or great leaders make great times?  Madison, Pierce, Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Hoover vs. Lincoln, Wilson, FDR, Truman  Skowronek’s “Political Time” Presidency: “Has Obama called for united America too soon to make politics of reconstruction?”

Presidential Evaluation: Some Questions 3 II. A bias in favor of assertive and energetic presidents?  John Quincy Adams, Coolidge, Taft suffer in this context  How is an energetic president different from an imperial presidency?  LBJ, Nixon, and George W. Bush (?)

Presidential Evaluation: Some Questions 4 III. Performance in office vs. Achievements over a life-time?  Grant: a great general but a weak president  Madison: a superb constitutional architect yet an average president  Hoover: successful cabinet member but far less successful as a president  Carter: a Nobel Prize winner, yet low marks for his presidency

Presidential Evaluation: Some Questions 5 IV. Can we objectively compare presidents from different eras?  Leadership is truly contextual.  Seldom are different presidents facing with the same situations.  (Ex) Jefferson and Polk praised for adding vast areas to the territory of the United States, yet recent presidents cannot duplicate those feats.

Presidential Election 6  The “chief factors” influencing how people vote in presidential elections  Party Orientation (Party ID)  Policy Preferences  Retrospective judgments on the performance of the incumbent or their political party  The way people perceive the integrity, character, and judgment of the candidates

Speaking of characters, do they matter? If so, how so? If not, why not?  James Barber’s theory of presidential character  Important thing for voters in selecting a president not primarily positions on issues and the record of the candidate, but who the candidate is as a person Ex) In 1972 election, George McGovern (active-positive) vs. Richard Nixon (active-negative) The need to screen candidates in the modern world – costs are much higher of choosing wrong!!! Barber successfully predicted the fall of Nixon based on his character. 7

James Barber: Presidential Character I “Presidential character” = Not just personality (which is made up of style, world view, and character), but, essentially interacts with the external climate of expectations and creates the dynamics of presidency  Style is how the president behaves with regard to rhetoric, people, and work.  Sometimes, determined in early adulthood by the “first independent political success.”  Richard Nixon’s Senate race in 1950  Nixon called his opponent, Helen Douglas, the “Pink Lady” and won the election and became the VP in

James Barber: Presidential Character II  Two dimensions of personality  Energy that president puts into the job (active/passive) “Does he work hard?”  Affect toward the job (positive/ negative) “Does he like the job of presidency?”  Creates the “two by two” typology.  According to Barber,  Active-positives are the best.  Active-negatives are the ones to avoid. 9

According to Barber, “different characters pursue different goals.”  That’s why and how we can choose a better president by understanding presidential character (Barber).  Active-positive presidents: they want to achieve results  Active-negative presidents: they aim to get and keep power  Passive-positive presidents: they are after love (02:05)  Passive-negative presidents: they emphasize their civic virtue 10

Personality and Preference: Explaining Presidential Character 11

Barber’s Presidential Psychology 12

Psychological approach  The lack of fit between (near) great presidents and “active-positive” types? Ex) Washington, Reagan, Eisenhower, Wilson, Lincoln  Is personality all that matters?  Hoover & the Great Depression  Wilson & the World War I  LBJ, Nixon & the Vietnam War 13

Who gets nominated and elected? I 14  Presidents are usually middle-aged white male Protestant lawyers of European lineage from larger states !!!  All but one (JFK) were Protestants.  About half have been lawyers and served in Congress  Twelve were generals (From Washington to Ike)  A presidential candidate must be at least 35 years old, must have lived within the United States for 14 years, and must be a natural-born citizen

Who gets nominated and elected? II 15 Vice presidents  7 VP became presidents between 1789 and 1900  Adams, Jefferson, Van Buren, Tyler, Fillmore, Johnson, Arthur  7 VP became presidents between 1901 and 2004  TR, Coolidge, Truman, LBJ, Nixon, Ford, Bush 41

Who gets nominated and elected? III 16 Incumbent presidents  Won 24 convention renominations between 1836 and 2004  Some pledged to serve a single term (Polk, Fillmore, Pierce, Buchanan)  Sometimes vulnerable to challenges within their own party Reagan vs. Ford in Kennedy vs. Carter in 1980

Who gets nominated and elected? IV 17  Department Secretaries  Favored only in the congressional caucus system  Since 1830s, only 5 cabinet secretaries viable contenders  Only Taft (Secretary of War) in 1908 and Hoover (Secretary of Commerce) in 1928 elected to president  Governors  Have done well in winning presidential nominations  4 in the 19 th century (Polk, Hayes, Cleveland, McKinley)  6 in the 20 th century (Wilson, FDR, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and Bush 43)

Who gets nominated and elected? V 18 Senators & House members  Only two in the 20 th century (Harding & JFK) were elected directly from the Senate.  2008 election as an exception = two sitting senators’ race  In 1964 and 1972, a sitting senator defeated by a huge margin  Voting records and the anti-Washington mood of the voters  Only one House member has been elected president = James Garfield in the election of 1880

Presidents’ home states: Ohio and New York as critical states at the turn of the 19 th Century America 19