OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Economic and Revenue Outlook Budget Kickoff Meeting March 15 th, 2016Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Mark McMullen Josh Lehner

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Economic Overview 2

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Oregon Full-Throttle Growth 3

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Migration Flows have Returned 4

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Strong Wage Gains 5

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Growth has Returned to Rural Oregon 6

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Risks 7

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Global Weakness Hits Oregon 8

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Housing Costs Rising 9

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Public Policies 10

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The Long Run 11

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Big Picture, Long Run Outlook 12

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Demographics and Budget Drivers 13

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Generations in Oregon 14

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Demographic Changes 15

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Budgets and Demographics 16

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Demographics and the Business Cycle Impacts Higher Education 17

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Oregon Women Prison Intakes

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Women – Preliminary Forecast

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Male Person Crime Intakes: Demographics Are Not Everything

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS All Male Inmate Forecast

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Revenue Outlook 22

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Revenue Outlook 23

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Personal Income Tax Collections Remain Healthy 24

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The Tricky Part 25

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 26 Personal Income Tax Forecast $ billions, 4 quarter moving sum

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Corporate Taxes Turn Down 27

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Don’t Look at Us, DHS Has Your Money 28

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Vehicle Miles Traveled Rebounds 29

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Economic Growth Drives Liquor Sales 30

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Smoke ‘Em If You Got ‘Em (Pt 1) 31

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Smoke ‘Em If You Got ‘Em (Pt 2) 32

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Lottery Revenues Booming Again 33

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Yet Still Smaller Share of Income 34

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 35 Biennial Revenue Growth

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 36 Reserves

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Contact (503)