Open House – April 30-May 1 2016 THE SIGNAL IN THE NOISE – STRONG EL NIÑO AND THE MID-ATLANTIC.

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Presentation transcript:

Open House – April 30-May THE SIGNAL IN THE NOISE – STRONG EL NIÑO AND THE MID-ATLANTIC

WHAT WE’LL COVER Patterns from last winter Forecast for the summer

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION NDJ : 2.30

WINTER TIME SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) A measure of the jet stream pattern over the north Atlantic.

NAO – POSITIVE PHASE L bye….

NAO – NEGATIVE PHASE L Uh oh….

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (5-Dec-2015)

TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES DURING STRONG EL NIÑO EVENTS (DEC-FEB) Above normal (50%): , , Near normal (17%): Below normal (33%): , Rank (strongest Los Niños): 1) ) ) ) ) )

TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES DEC 2015-FEB 2016

PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES DURING STRONG EL NIÑO EVENTS (DEC-FEB) Above normal (50%): , , Near normal (17%): Below normal (33%): , Rank (strongest Los Niños): 1) ) ) ) ) )

PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES DEC 2015-FEB 2016

STRONG EL NIÑO SNOWFALL

THIS WINTER FEATURED… A record warm December One enormous blizzard A few cold snaps, but overall well above normal temperatures

SUMMER 2016 OUTLOOK From CPC

SUMMER TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (MODEL FORECAST)

SUMMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FORECAST (MODEL FORECAST)

SUMMER PRECIPITATION FORECAST (MODEL FORECAST)

CPC FINAL SUMMER OUTLOOK WILL BE RELEASED IN MID-MAY

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER Climate headlines

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER Climate outlooks Climate patterns

OUR LOCAL CLIMATE PAGE

THINGS TO REMEMBER Last winter was abnormally warm with one big blizzard Trend for above normal temperatures may continue through summer : National climate forecasts / washington : Local climate information

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