Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: Space Research Building (North Campus) Winter 2014 April 1, 2014

Class News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 Something I am playing with – Assignment – ed –Posted Politics of Dismissal Entry Model Uncertainty Description

The Current Climate (Released Monthly) Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.Climate MonitoringNational Climatic Data Center – State of the Climate: Global

Outline Climate Problem Solving Interface –Salience Challenge Translational Information –Description Synthesis –Structured approach to science – policy interface – interface with user and educational communication Chapter 12: Advancing Climate ModelingChapter 12: Advancing Climate Modeling

Structure of Problem Solving ( )

Skill Set Analysis –Distinguish between facts and inferences Evaluation / Judgment –What is the quality of the knowledge? Synthesis –How do pieces fit together?

Generation and reporting of scientific knowledge

Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY EXPERIMENT Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary Problem Solving Unification Integration Refereed Journals Assessments

Peer Review: Understanding Science BerkeleyUnderstanding Science Berkeley Authors Often: Chooses amongst Editors Recommends Reviewers Provides names of Collaborators Provides names of Competitors Editors: Often volunteer from community Approved by publisher Professional society Commercial publisher Recuses himself / herself if prejudiced Reviewers: Anonymous Recuses himself / herself if prejudiced

Peer Review Standard in Science, Social Science, and Academics –Part of the checking – or validation process –Designed to provide checks and balances to human behavior – supports objectivity –Slow from submission to publication  many months  years –Attacked as closed and prejudiced (East Anglia hack )East Anglia hack –Current efforts to shake it up, open it up, speed it up

Peer Review New efforts at “Open Review” –American Geophysical Union ExperimentAmerican Geophysical Union Experiment –Open Review Chronicle for Higher EdOpen Review Chronicle for Higher Ed Some links to peer review –Cracking Open Scientific Processes, 2011Cracking Open Scientific Processes –European Peer Review, 2011European Peer Review –Future of Peer Review, 1997Future of Peer Review –Peerless Science: Peer Review and the U.S. Science Policy, 1990Peerless Science: Peer Review and the U.S. Science Policy

Peer Review The world, as a whole, does not follow a peer review process –Reports –Analysis –News –Self Interests New models of publication –MediacommonsMediacommons

Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY EXPERIMENT Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary Problem Solving Unification Integration Refereed Journals Assessments

Assessment Bringing together knowledge to evaluate that knowledge as a body of work relevant to some specific subject or application. –What can we say about climate change? –What are the gaps in knowledge? –How certain are we? –Reconcile conflicting information? How the scientific community communicates with policy makers

Some Assessments USGCRP (US Global Change Research Program) Scientific AssessmentsScientific Assessments –National Climate Assessment (current)National Climate Assessment –First National Climate Assessment (2000)First National Climate Assessment –Synthesis and Assessment ReportsSynthesis and Assessment Reports Climate Change Science Program –National Academy of SciencesNational Academy of Sciences –Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (The assessment process) How is this information evaluated, integrated and transmitted to policymakers? U.S. Climate Change Science Program  U.S. Global Change Research ProgramU.S. Global Change Research Program  AssessmentsAssessments U.S. National Assessment National Academy of Sciences Study Process Published in refereed literature Scientist-authors are nominated by governments to assess the state of the science Draft documents are reviewed by experts who did NOT write the draft. // Open review as wellOpen review as well Draft revised Review by government officials // Final language // All agree IPCCIPCC CLIMATE REPORTS What we know + uncertainty

IPCC 2013 Process What is IPCC How are author’s selected?How are author’s selected? What literature? IPCC Review Process IPCC Approval IPCC Error Handling IPCC History Timeline

IPCC Report Process Note

A paper of interest Daniel Farber:Daniel Farber –Review of Climate Modeling Activities and why they should have legal standing.Review of Climate Modeling Activities and why they should have legal standing

Outline Climate Problem Solving Interface –Salience Challenge Translational Information –Description Synthesis –Structured approach to science – policy interface – interface with user and educational communication Chapter 12: Advancing Climate ModelingChapter 12: Advancing Climate Modeling

Usability of Information

Knowledge System Need to bring together disparate information and different points of view to develop strategies for applied problem solving Key to development of successful strategies: iterative process or co- development with information providers and information users Cash et al: 2002 Lemos & Morehouse, 2005 Dilling & Lemos, 2011

Knowledge System, Science Focused Two Points –This figure overstates the role of “science” in the knowledge systems –I choose not to draw a line between the two bubbles, as the relation between “science” and the application is not direct. Science & Research Applications

Heuristic Knowledge System Science & Research Applications Disciplinary Knowledge Disciplinary Knowledge Political Local Reality Budget Etc. These elements sit in a complex and changing relationship within any specific application, as well as across multiple applications.

Knowledge System, Science Focused Dilling & Lemos, 2011 Information brokers Collaborative group processes Embedded capacity Boundary Organizations Knowledge Networks Science & Research Applications Cash et al: 2002 Boundary Management Dual Accountability Boundary Objects

Knowledge System, Science Focused Dilling & Lemos, 2011 Information brokers Collaborative group processes Embedded capacity Boundary Organizations Knowledge Networks Science & Research Applications Cash et al: 2002 Boundary Management Dual Accountability Boundary Objects Cash et al: 2002 Legitimacy Credibility Salience

Credibility, Legitimacy, Salience Credibility is an attribute of scientific adequacy. Legitimacy is an attribute of objectivity, fairness, and a lack of political bias. Salience requires that information be relevant to the problem to be addressed.

Science-Policy Interface II: Salience Challenge Usable Science? Tang and Dessai (2012) –U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) –Bayesian probabilistic projections – highly quantitative uncertainty descriptions –Increases credibility and legitimacy –Reduces salience and usability Understanding and Interpretation Information required –Strategy to increase salience Tailoring to adaptation context or problem

To Support Iterative Co-development “Translation” Tag information (range of descriptors) Translate information across disciplinary boundaries Tailor information to be relevant to specific application Describe uncertainty Provide judgment on usability of information  Knowledge applied to real problems

Types of Translational InformationTranslational Information Model Output Digital Information Indices Downscaled GIS Formats Seasonality Fact Sheets Summaries Narratives What has happened? What will happen? What are the impacts? Guidance Judgment Assessments IPCC NCA Local Basic Data Applications Global Regional Local Observations Quality Assessment Homogeneity Images Figures Uncertainty Descriptions Risk Assessments

Challenges: Translational InformationTranslational Information What do we mean by the term? How do we generate? At scale? How do we manage? –Link to primary data and knowledge sources How do we re-use? How do we accelerate the use of climate knowledge in policy and planning?

Synthesis Structured approach based on model of knowledge system –Integrated, End-to-end system –Interfaces between different parts of system –Iterative process –Translational information to improve salience –  Scale up by developing translators and boundary organizations –Chapter 12: Advancing Climate ModelingChapter 12: Advancing Climate Modeling

Where do assessments sit in problem solving?

Problem Solving Figures

We arrive at levels of granularity TEMPORAL NEAR-TERMLONG-TERM SPATIAL LOCAL GLOBAL WEALTH Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales. Need to introduce spatial scales as well Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change

What is short-term and long-term? 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years ENERGY SECURITY ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime,... LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. Election time scales

What is short-term and long-term? 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years ENERGY SECURITY ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime,... LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. Election time scales

Structure of Problem Solving ( )

Skill Set Analysis –Distinguish between facts and inferences Evaluation / Judgment –What is the quality of the knowledge? Synthesis –How do pieces fit together?

Deconstructing how to think about projects. 1) Describe what is in the picture. What are the facts? Make an inventory of what is known. Make an inventory of what is not known. 2) Analysis: How credible is the information? What is the integrity of the reporting? How complete is the picture? Is there derived knowledge? … 3) Does it matter? Impact. Consequences. Relations Why? 4) What to do? Consequences? Options?

Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary Problem Solving Unification Integration Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition The details of the problem often de-correlate pieces of the problem. –What do I mean? Think about heat waves? This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based experts, and the ability to generalize. – For example --- Detroit is like Chicago. The consideration of the system as a whole causes tensions – trade offs - optimization

Development of International Approach to Climate Change IPCC established Kyoto Protocol Copenhagen Accord Framework Convention (UNFCCC) Scientific assessment Non-binding aim Binding emissions target Keep warming less than 2 C

Iconic and Fundamental Figures

Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN: ENERGY, HEATEARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

Sun-Earth System in Balance The addition to the blanket is CO 2 SUNEARTH EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE

Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas

Temperature and CO 2 : The last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.  Medieval warm period  “Little ice age”  Temperature starts to follow CO 2 as CO 2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years.

CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN

Radiation Balance Figure

Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)Trenberth et al. 2009

Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001) (-2.7, -0.6) (-3.7, 0.0) Climate Forcing