Chapter 4 The HR Forecasting Process

Learning Outcomes Identify the three different categories of HR Forecasting activity and their relationship to the HR Planning Process State the considerable advantages that accrue to organizations from instituting effective HR forecasting procedures Discuss the rationale for giving special attention to specialist, technical, and executive personnel groups in the HR forecasting process Describe the relevant time periods for future estimates of HR demand and supply Identify the various steps in the process of determining net HR requirements and terminology describing type of outcomes

Why is Strategic HR Planning important to Organizations? Because it attempts to balance between the work that needs to be done and the workforce that performs the tasks to do the work Insufficient work and too many employees lead to inefficiencies and lower productivity Employees may become bored and unmotivated and engage in counterproductive behavior

Why is Strategic HR Planning important to Organizations? On the other hand, too much work and an insufficient number of employees lead to higher overtime and wages expenses, while at the same time increases the stress and fatigue of the overworked employees Both scenarios will result in an ineffective organization that might compromise its ability to meet its goals and objectives

Forecasting Activity Categories There are three forecasting categories: Transactional-Based forecasting: Focuses on tracking internal change instituted by the organization’s managers Event-Based forecasting: Concerned with changes in the external environment Process-Based forecasting: Not focused on a specific internal organization event, but on the flow or sequencing of several work activities

Benefits of HR Forecasting Reduces HR Cost Increases organizational flexibility Ensures a close linkage to the macro business forecasting process Ensures that organizational requirements take precedence over issues of resource constraint and scarcity (HR Supply and HR Demand)

Human Resource Supply and Demand Human Resource Supply: The source of workers to meet demand requirements, obtained either internally (current members of the organization’s workforce) or from external agencies Human Resource Demand: The organization’s projected requirement for human resources

Key Personnel Analyses conducted by HR Forecasters Specialist/Technical/Professional personnel Employment equity-designated group membership Managerial and executive personnel Recruits

5 Stages of the Forecasting Process Identify organizational goals, objectives and plans Determine overall demand requirements for personnel Assess in-house skills and other internal supply characteristics Determine the net demand requirements that must be met from external, environmental supply sources Develop HR plans and programs to ensure that the right people are in the right place.

Organizational Factors affecting HR Forecasting Corporate mission, strategic goals Operational goals, production budgets HR policies Organizational structures, restructuring Worker KSAOs, competencies, expectations HRMS level of development Organizational culture, climate, job satisfaction, communications Job Analysis: workforce coverage, current data

HR Forecasting Time Horizons Current Forecasts: up to to one year Short-run Forecasts: From one to two years Medium-run Forecasts: From two to five years Long-run Forecasts: For five or more years

Outcomes of Forecasts Prediction: A single numeric estimate of HR requirements associated with a specific time horizon and set of assumptions Projection: Incorporates several HR estimates based on a variety of assumptions

Outcomes of Forecasts Scenario: A proposed sequence of events with its own set of assumptions and associated program details Contingency Plans: Implemented when severe, unanticipated changes to organizational or environmental factors completely negate the usefulness of the existing HR forecasting predictions or projections; like a backup plan

Steps in Determining net HR Requirements Determine HR demand Ascertain HR supply (includes internal supply and external supply) and skills inventory- personal database record on each employee Determine Net HR requirements Institute HR programs: HR shortage and HR surplus

HR Shortage or HR Surplus HR Shortage: Demand > Supply HR Surplus: Supply > Demand

Dealing with Surpluses Job Sharing: Occurs when two or more employees perform the duties of one full-time employees Attrition: The process of reducing an HR surplus by allowing the size of the workforce to decline naturally Hiring Freeze: A prohibition on all external recruiting activities

Dealing with Shortages External Recruitment: Finding employees from outside the organization

End of Topic