DEVELOPING SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLMENT PROJECTIONS March 26, 2009 Prepared By: Judy Shoemaker, Planning Manager School District No Professional Development Workshop on School Facilities Management

WHY IT IS IMPORTANT? Almost everything in a School District’s World is enrolment driven…  How many pencils to buy  How many teachers to hire  How many buses to run  How many schools to operate  How much space to maintain  Determines operational budgets  Determines capital approvals

ENROLMENT PROJECTION KEY FACTORS Student Demographics Community Demographics Educational Considerations

STUDENT DEMOGRAPHICS Birth Rates Student Retention Rates (Cohort Survival Rate) In-Migration & Out-Migration Out of Catchment Enrolment New Registrations & Transfers Loss/Gain during school Year

BIRTHS Annual births available through local health authority Develop a history of births for your district The kids born this year will be entering your schools in 5 years

BIRTHS # of births to mothers resident within School District No.23 Example of birth data impact in the Central Okanagan 1995: High point - 1, : High point - 1, : Low point - 1, : Low point - 1, : Unprecedented jump to 1,622 children born! 2007: Unprecedented jump to 1,622 children born! 210 higher than higher than % increase from 2006

Is the increase in births a 1 year anomaly? (Did the power go out?) Female Age Distribution: Significantly more women of child bearing age from 2001 to 2006 Age % Age % Age %

Where do these women live? Schools with the greatest increase in women age 20-34: Anne McClymont +201 Anne McClymont +201 Rosevalley+172 Rosevalley+172 Shannon Lake+136 Shannon Lake+136 Watson Road+106 Watson Road+106 Dorthea Walker+94 Dorthea Walker+94 Black Mountain+88 Black Mountain+88 The only school with a large decrease in women of child bearing age: Bankhead-92 Bankhead-92

BIRTH RATE IMPACT 2009: Less than 50 students increase in : Less than 50 students increase in By 2011: Enrolments will remain stable until 2011 and then begins to increase. By 2011: Enrolments will remain stable until 2011 and then begins to increase. By 2018: enrolment will be higher than 2008 levels by approximately 2000 students. By 2018: enrolment will be higher than 2008 levels by approximately 2000 students. By 2018: K up 400, Elementary up 2,000, Middle flat, Secondary down 400. By 2018: K up 400, Elementary up 2,000, Middle flat, Secondary down 400. Secondary will decline as lower birth rates 1995 to 2003 pass through the system. Secondary will decline as lower birth rates 1995 to 2003 pass through the system.

CHANGE FROM 3 YEARS AGO WOMEN OF CHILD BEARING AGE

STUDENT RETENTION RATES Also known as grade to grade ‘Cohort Survival Ratio’  The cohort begins with a group of students starting in K and moving to Grade 1 the next year, Grade 2 the following year and so on.  The “survival ratio” is developed to see how this group of students grows or shrinks over time.  Enrolment patterns emerge that can be folded into projections by using the survival ratios as a multiplier. 100 students in one grade…. 100 students in one grade…. ….same cohort group has 102 students in next year ….same cohort group has 102 students in next year =102% retention rate =102% retention rate

STUDENT RETENTION RATES

A ‘weighted’ 3 year average generally provides reliable, predictable projections %3 Year Average = ( )/3 =107% % 3 Year Weighted Average 3 Year Weighted Average %((104x1)+(108x2)+(110x3)/6 =108% STUDENT RETENTION RATES

MIGRATION How many new students are moving into a school area and how many are moving out How many new students are moving into a school area and how many are moving out -shows up in the schools retention rates. -shows up in the schools retention rates. BCeSIS provides Withdrawal and Admissions Reports –Can break down how many are coming in from other district schools, from independent schools, from out of district, out of province and out of country BCeSIS provides Withdrawal and Admissions Reports –Can break down how many are coming in from other district schools, from independent schools, from out of district, out of province and out of country Example of use –Pattern of Independent School In- Migration at Grade 8. Increase retention rate accordingly for projections of students entering grade 8. Example of use –Pattern of Independent School In- Migration at Grade 8. Increase retention rate accordingly for projections of students entering grade 8.

MIGRATION TRENDS Significant increase in family mobility. In the Central Okanagan in 2008; 1658 Admissions (not including K’s or transitioning grades) and 1178 Withdrawals 1658 Admissions (not including K’s or transitioning grades) and 1178 Withdrawals 570 Admissions/withdrawals due to movement between SD23 schools 570 Admissions/withdrawals due to movement between SD23 schools 200 Admissions and 103 Withdrawals to/from Independent Schools 200 Admissions and 103 Withdrawals to/from Independent Schools Balance Out of District/Province/Country Balance Out of District/Province/Country

OUT OF CATCHMENT ENROLMENT Managing boundaries very difficult since School Act changed to allow parents & students their choice to attend any school they want …as long as space permits. Managing boundaries very difficult since School Act changed to allow parents & students their choice to attend any school they want …as long as space permits. Review where kids in catchment area attend Review where kids in catchment area attend Review where kids attending school come from Review where kids attending school come from

OUT OF CATCHMENT ENROLMENT Bankhead Elementary Where kids come from

Bankhead Elementary Where kids go to OUT OF CATCHMENT ENROLMENT

NEW REGISTRATIONS & TRANSFERS Schools enter all new registrations and transfer requests into a “Wait List” database Schools enter all new registrations and transfer requests into a “Wait List” database Each schools Wait List indicates if student is new to the district or a transfer from another school within the district. Each schools Wait List indicates if student is new to the district or a transfer from another school within the district. For final staffing projections, school projections are adjusted to reflect new registrations & transfers in or out. For final staffing projections, school projections are adjusted to reflect new registrations & transfers in or out.

LOSS/GAIN DURING SCHOOL YEAR Compare schools Sept 30 th enrolment to February month end enrolment. Note loss or gain of students during school year. Compare schools Sept 30 th enrolment to February month end enrolment. Note loss or gain of students during school year. Compare to previous years. If greater loss than previous – retention rates likely to high. If much greater gain of students than previous years, retention rate likely too low. Compare to previous years. If greater loss than previous – retention rates likely to high. If much greater gain of students than previous years, retention rate likely too low.

KEY FACTORS COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHICS Knowledge of the area   Proposed Development –Municipal Referrals   Official Community Plans   Type of Housing & Housing Costs   Building Permits/Housing Starts   Geographic Barriers   Neighbourhood Attributes   Community Economic Indicators Student Yields by Area

Official Community Plans Will generally indicate the future potential housing areas, number of housing units & style of units supported in any given area. KNOWLEDGE OF THE AREA Proposed Development Get on the municipal referrals list for Rezoning, Subdivision and Development Permit applications Establish liaison meetings with city planners to learn about upcoming developments

AreaSFDMFD Clifton / Glenmore2, Glenmore Valley Inner City _4,157 S. Pandosy / Guisachan_1,842 Dilworth Hwy 97 / Springfield_1,653 Total Units 3,1829,007 Potential New Residential Units 20 Year Horizon CITY OF KELOWNA OCP EXAMPLE

KNOWLEDGE OF THE AREA Building Permits/Housing Starts Land saturation analysis Remaining potential for development Change in household composition. Neighbourhood ‘cycles’ –difficult to predict. Neighbourhood attributes –new recreation centre? Community Economic Indicators Geographic barriers Transportation barriers

STUDENT YIELD RATES Analyze new housing data by school catchment area. Analyze new housing data by school catchment area. Student yield factors can be established by comparing the number of students each year by the total number of building or occupancy permits issued. Student yield factors can be established by comparing the number of students each year by the total number of building or occupancy permits issued. Example: Student enrolment increased by 100 students at Central school. 200 single family building permits issued = estimated yield rate of.5 students per new household. Example: Student enrolment increased by 100 students at Central school. 200 single family building permits issued = estimated yield rate of.5 students per new household. Once yield factors are established –the number of new students per year can be projected by multiplying the yield rate by the number of projected new housing units. Once yield factors are established –the number of new students per year can be projected by multiplying the yield rate by the number of projected new housing units. Style and value of homes may vary yield rates I.e. Yield rates for single family homes is generally twice that of multi-family homes in the Central Okanagan. Also the higher value the house, the lower the yield rate. Style and value of homes may vary yield rates I.e. Yield rates for single family homes is generally twice that of multi-family homes in the Central Okanagan. Also the higher value the house, the lower the yield rate.

KEY FACTORS EDUCATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS Schools of Choice (Magnet Programs) Specialty Space Offerings In-school Community Programs Private Schools Identification of At Risk Students: Early Development Indicator

SCHOOLS OF CHOICE French Immersion –Single/Dual Track impacts French Immersion –Single/Dual Track impacts Traditional Schools Traditional Schools Trades & Dual Credit Programs Trades & Dual Credit Programs Culinary Arts Programs Culinary Arts Programs Sports Academies Sports Academies Fine Arts Specialties Fine Arts Specialties Baccalaureate Baccalaureate or other Enrichment Programs or other Enrichment Programs International Student Program International Student Program

IN-SCHOOL COMMUNITY PROGRAMS Strong Start Preschools Daycares After School Programs Community School Programs Recreation Programs

PRIVATE SCHOOLS What percentage of your total population attends independent schools? What percentage of your total population attends independent schools? It is increasing or decreasing? It is increasing or decreasing? What are the trends for the future? What are the trends for the future? Is there a new game in town? Is there a new game in town?

Early Development Instrument  A Population-based measure of early child development for communities  Research indicates the Early years are the most important developmental phase throughout life  Assessing Children’s readiness to learn  Physical health & well being  Social competence  Emotional maturity  Language & cognitive development  Communication and general knowledge

Early Development Instrument  Helps to show where there are large neighbourhood differences and vulnerability in the number of children healthy and ready for school  BC 1 st jurisdiction in the world to have a standardized tool for assessing ECD at a population level. By 2004, every K class in BC participated the EDI  Can be a powerful catalyst for influencing policy and programming decisions by providing population level data about the K children in a neighbourhood.  Purpose is to provide population based data about early childhood development to communities and government so they can put programs in to place to support healthy child development in all families -in the right areas.  No data, no problem, no action Alfredo Solari

Summary Table: Average Scores

Cross Checks Resulting projections can be compared against Baragar projections (an independent company) which uses a student percentage of total population projection methodology. Resulting projections can be compared against Baragar projections (an independent company) which uses a student percentage of total population projection methodology. Compared against Ministry of Compared against Ministry of Education projections. Education projections. Have each school principal Have each school principal review for reasonableness. review for reasonableness. Lean to the cautionary side. Lean to the cautionary side. Budgets are based on projections. Budgets are based on projections. Caution protects the School District. Caution protects the School District.

At the end of the day you want to know… What are the trends in your district?  Increasing, stable or declining enrolment; by school area and by the district as a whole. And have good, credible enrolment data to;  Determine capacity utilization factors  Identify future growth by area  Develop a business case for new space, renovations, consolidation space, renovations, consolidation or reconfiguration of schools or reconfiguration of schools  Reduce portable classrooms DESIREABLE OUTCOMES

Questions?