PUBLIC OPINION, PARTICIPATION, AND VOTING CHAPTER 8

What is Public Opinion?  Definition—the distribution of individual preferences or evaluation of a given issue, candidate, or institution within a given population. Distribution Distribution Individual preferences Individual preferences Universe or population Universe or population  Public Opinion can show a Consensus  Public Opinion can be Polarized

Scientific Polling  A scientifically valid and dependable poll must meet certain requirements. Sample appropriate group. Sample appropriate group. Sample must match the population Sample must match the population Random samplingRandom sampling Quota sampling.Quota sampling. Neutral questions Neutral questions People contacted so none eliminated. People contacted so none eliminated. Must understand the margin for error. Must understand the margin for error.

Behind the Numbers  To understand public opinion, must know more than percentage who hold a particular opinion. Latency Latency Salience Salience Intensity Intensity

How We Acquire Our Opinions Political Socialization  Political Socialization. Starts in childhoodStarts in childhood What is most important in shaping?What is most important in shaping? Nationalism. Nationalism. People form their opinions and values in groups and in relation to groups. People form their opinions and values in groups and in relation to groups.

Important Sources of Political Socialization  Family Most important determinant of political opinions Most important determinant of political opinions Teach attitudes rather than specific opinions Teach attitudes rather than specific opinions  Schools Patriotism and nationalism. Patriotism and nationalism. Expose children to opinions of others Expose children to opinions of others  Mass Media People tend to choose media outlets that mirror their own views. People tend to choose media outlets that mirror their own views.

Public Opinion and Public Policy  Stability of a person’s opinions and political values.  Factors that lead to major changes.  Public opinion shapes behavior of politicians. Delegates Delegates Trustees Trustees  Election calendar and public opinion

Awareness and Interest  Most people are not that interested in politics.  Public falls into three groups Attentive Public—25% Attentive Public—25% Part-time Citizens—40% Part-time Citizens—40% Nonvoters—35% Nonvoters—35%

Translating Opinions Into Action  Many people consider politics private and don’t like to talk about it.  Less than 1/4th try to influence the views of others.  Fewer than that work for candidates.  Only 13% contribute money to candidates.  But, small groups can have a big influence.

Voting  Most common way in which American’s express themselves politically.  Who determines voter eligibility?  History of voter eligibility.  Post Civil War expanded to include Blacks—15th Amendment Blacks—15th Amendment Women—19th Amendment Women—19th Amendment 1924—Indians given citizenship and right to vote. 1924—Indians given citizenship and right to vote Voting rights act 1965 Voting rights act 26th Amendment—Age reduced to th Amendment—Age reduced to 18.

Voter Registration  Defined  Tends to discourage and reduce voting. Why?  Most other democracies have automatic registration.  Progressive era reform. Purpose?  Registration is determined by state law—all states have but North Dakota.  Deadline restrictions under Federal law  Registration and party affiliation.

National Voter Registration Act (Motor Voter Act)  Purpose of the Law  Provisions Mandated that states offer voter registration to anyone renewing vehicle registration or license. Mandated that states offer voter registration to anyone renewing vehicle registration or license. Required forms be available in all public government offices. Required forms be available in all public government offices. Also required states to offer registration by mail. Also required states to offer registration by mail.  Benefit to either party?  Affect on voter turnout.

Absentee and Early Voting  All states have absentee voting  31 states allow early voting  Impact of early voting on campaigns

Voter Turnout  Because Americans hold so many elections voters tend to pick and choose which ones to vote in.  Some Terms— Presidential elections. Presidential elections. General election. General election. Primary election. Primary election. Midterm elections. Midterm elections. Off-year elections. Off-year elections.

Voter Turnout  Turnout is highest in presidential general elections.  Turnout higher in general elections than primary elections and higher in primaries than in special elections.  Turnout is higher if there are federal elections at the same time than if purely state or local.  Turnout is higher in state elections than in local elections.  1960 turnout was 63% but has declined steadily since then, although voting turnout has gone up the last two elections.

Voter Turnout

Why is Turnout so Low (Not in Text)  Laziness  Apathy  Cost of voting is high  Lack of candidate appeal  Lack of candidate competition

Who Votes  Education  Income  Ethnicity  Race

Voter Mobilization  Getting out the vote  Playing to the base  Playing to independent voters

How People Vote  People tend to vote on the basis of three factors: Party, issues and candidates  Voting on the Basis of Party Most people vote for candidates from the party with whom they identify Most people vote for candidates from the party with whom they identify The number of Independents has gone up dramatically since The number of Independents has gone up dramatically since /3 of independents are partisan in their voting behavior 2/3 of independents are partisan in their voting behavior Pure independents; 10% of the population. Pure independents; 10% of the population.

Voting Choices  Voting Based on Candidate  Candidate-centered era of politics?  What Americans want in a candidate?  Important to be “main stream” McGovern and Goldwater McGovern and Goldwater

Which Quality Mattered Most in the 2004 Vote Source: 2004 Exit Polls from Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International at

Voting on the Basis of Issues  Issues are less important than party and personality in determining votes.  Reasons: Candidates obscure their positions. Candidates obscure their positions. Candidates typically hug the political center Candidates typically hug the political center Only a minority of voters have enough interest in or knowledge of the issues. Only a minority of voters have enough interest in or knowledge of the issues.  Wedge issues  When do issues become the most important factor?  Voters are more likely to make issues important retrospectively  Most important issue in most elections?

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COUNTING VOTES  Counting the vote is an imperfect process,  There are always judgment calls that have to be made. Was an absentee ballot effectively filled out according to the state law? Was an absentee ballot effectively filled out according to the state law? Should a provisional ballot be allowed? Should a provisional ballot be allowed? Was a vote on a paper ballot clearly for a particular candidate? Was a vote on a paper ballot clearly for a particular candidate?  In most elections the margin of victory is greater than the number of disputed ballots.  Election law is primarily state law, meaning that the laws differ in each state.