The Stroop Effect
Mr Ahmed says that his gas bill is getting more expensive. Mrs Ahmed says it is actually getting cheaper. Below are their gas bills for a two-year period. Who do you think is right? Why? Time series Quarter Jan – MarApr – JunJul – SepOct – DecJan – MarApr – JunJul – SepOct – Dec Bill (£) The data is easier to visualise as a time series graph.
Time series graph
[As there are four separate periods in each year, a four-point moving average can be calculated.] Point 1: Mean of first four values ( ) ÷ 4 = Point 2: Mean of next four values ( ) ÷ 4 = Point 3: Mean of next four values ( ) ÷ 4 = Point 4: Mean of next four values ( ) ÷ 4 = Point 5: Mean of next four values ( ) ÷ 4 = Calculating Moving Averages Quarter Jan – MarApr – JunJul – SepOct – DecJan – MarApr – JunJul – SepOct – Dec Bill (£s)
The table below gives information about the number of TVs sold by Vision World in each quarter from 2010 to Plot the 4-point moving averages for this information (to 3 s.f.): Point 1: Mean of first four values ( ) ÷ 4 = 270 Point 2: Mean of next four values ( ) ÷ 4 = 289 Point 3: Mean of next four values ( ) ÷ 4 = 300 Point 4: Mean of next four values ( ) ÷ 4 = 314 Point 5: Mean of next four values ( ) ÷ 4 = 324 Your turn… Quarter Number of TVs
Time series graph
1.Decide the number of values to combine for the moving average. 2.Calculate the moving average values. 3.Plot time along the x-axis. 4.Plot the points in the middle of the period of time. 5.Join the points with a ruler. 6.Comment on the general trend. Is it going up or down? Moving Average summary
YearOlympic ChampionCountryResult 1948Jacques DupontFRA1: Russell MockridgeAUS1: Leandro FagginITA1: Sante GaiardoniITA1: Patrick SercuBEL1: Pierre TrentinFRA1: Niels FredborgDEN1: Klaus-Jürgen GrünkeGDR1: Lothar ThomsGDR1: Fredy SchmidtkeFRG1: Aleksandr KirichenkoURS1: José MorenoESP1: Florian RousseauFRA1: Jason QueallyGBR1: Chris HoyGBR1: Data for Moving Average Point 1 Then plot another line showing the three-point moving averages. Plot the following data as a time series