Aiming Higher Renfrewshire 16 June 2016 Paul Zealey, Skills Planning Lead

Regional Skills Assessments A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing evidence Partnership between SDS, SE, SFC and SLAED Launched November 2014 – SE Operating Area Purpose: Support SFC and Regional Colleges in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

What They Tell US ThemeContentData Sources Economic Performance  Gross Value Added (GVA)  Productivity  Earnings  Business Base  ONS Regional Account  Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings  UK Business Count  General Register For Scotland  Scottish Enterprise  SG BERD Database Profile of the Workforce  Industrial Structure  Regional Selective Assistance  Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES)  SG Growth Sector Database  Scottish Enterprise  Annual Population Survey People & Skills Supply  Population  Population Projections  Labour Market  Qualifications  Mid-Year Population Estimates  General Register Office for Scotland  Annual Population Survey  2011 Census  Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD)  SDS  DWP  Claimant Count  SG NEET Database  BRES & Working Futures Deprivation  Inequality Data  SIMD  Scottish Household Survey  ONS Working & Workless Households  SG School Meals Dataset Education & Training (MAs)  Modern Apprenticeships  Employability Fund  SDS Education & Training (FE/HE)  School Provision  College Provision  University Provision  Graduates  SG Pupil Census & Projections  SFC  2011 Census  HESA Graduate Destinations Survey Skills Mismatches  Recruitment & Work Readiness  Skills Gaps  2013 UKCES Survey Employment & Skills Outlook  Sectoral Outlook  Occupational Structure and Replacement Demand  Demand for Qualifications  Working Futures,

Business base 5,410 businesses in Renfrewshire (2014) 2.6% year on year increase 14% of business base is Professional, Scientific & Technical 11% retail 11% construction Arts, entertainment and other services and business services both important and above Scottish average

Workforce 75,400 people in employment 6% year on year increase 15% of all jobs in health 12% production 11% business services Numbers of jobs in transport and storage; motor trades and Arts, entertainment and recreation all above Scottish average

People and Skills Supply ILO Unemployment in Renfrewshire decreased, from 6,700 in 2013/2014 to 4,900 in 2014/2015. ILO Unemployment in the region is now in line with the Scottish and UK averages, at 6% Youth unemployment fell by 49% in Renfrewshire, from 848 to 436, between 2014 and 2015, a much greater rate than the 34% fall in Scotland 18,800 people in Renfrewshire (17%) are work limiting disabled, higher than the Scottish total of 15% School leavers entering Higher Education decreased to 42% in 2014/15, down from 44% in 2013/14, but still above the Scotland average of 38% 10% of those Renfrewshire aged between years have no qualifications (9% in Scotland)

Education and Training In 2014/2015, there were 990 MA starts in Renfrewshire, a 7% increase on the 925 starts in 2013/2014 The most popular frameworks for starts were in business and administration, hospitality, freight logistics, retail, customer service, engineering, social services (children and young people) and healthcare There were 28,123 students at West College (across all three campuses) in 2013/14, an increase from 24,330 the previous year Hairdressing, beauty and complementary therapies (14% of courses) and care (13%) were those most taken up, both above the Scottish average. Engineering is the third most popular choice (10%), in line with the proportion in Scotland as a whole. 88% study FE, 12% HE

Education and Training 8,146 students were studying at the University of the West of Scotland in 2013/2014, a 2% increase from the previous year. 29% of HEI students are from the region There were 3,109 HEI graduates from the region in 2013/14 (4% of all Scottish graduates), increasing from 2,000 in the previous year Just over half of graduates (51%) went into full-time work, below the Scottish average (61%) Graduates were most commonly employed in the public sector - human health and social work (26%) and wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (9%) – both above the Scottish averages of 16% and 7% respectively.

Sectoral Outlook The greatest employment increases over the coming decade are expected to come from information technology (24%) and health & social work (16%) Forecast net employment change Glasgow City Region. Source: Working Futures

Occupational Structure and Replacement Demand Expansion and replacement demand by occupation Glasgow City Region. Source: Working Futures All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100 and percentage calculations have been carried out on the unrounded figures

Demand for Qualifications Glasgow City Region. Source: Working Futures All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100 and percentage calculations have been carried out on the unrounded figures

Looking forward 50,000 new jobs forecast for city region over 10 years Largest area of job growth within city region by proportion forecast to be in information and communications technologies Largest area of job growth within city region by number forecast to be in health and social care 350,000 replacement jobs forecast for city region over 10 years High levels of replacement demand including in traditionally important areas such as production Increasing professionalisation of workforce and requirement for higher level qualifications

Key Considerations How can Renfrewshire best position itself within a growing and vibrant city region? How can Renfrewshire continue to grow its business and employment base, particularly in more creative and knowledge-based sectors, and how can the supply of skills meet this demand? How can employer demand for skills in customer services and in other growing sectors such as business support and administration best be met given skills gaps in some of these occupations and sectors? Is the balance of provision right to meet the future needs of employers? Is enough being done to take account of both expansion and replacement demand?

Paul Zealey Skills Planning Lead Skills Development Scotland do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/ Further Information