Market Forecast Update September, 2010 Kenneth Kruse Marketing Council - Committee Days Chicago, IL.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Keith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Advisor 2013 Texas Economic Outlook: Slightly Slower But Still Good to be in Texas.
Advertisements

Key Performance Indicators for the Junior Resource Sector: Q Update Prepared by Mike Doggett August 27, 2014.
The Impact of Changing Economic Conditions Since 2005 on the Forest Sector W. Brad Smith U.S. Forest Service Research & Development Washington, DC FIA.
Connect With Concrete Construction Outlook: 2008 Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA.
Count on Concrete Cement Outlook: 2009 Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA.
CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST June California Housing Market Outlook SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Georgia Construction Aggregate Association Management Workshop February 17, 2009 Daniel M Harrington.
Sales for the full year ended 31 December January 2010 Jean-Pierre Souchet - CFO Stéphane Bisseuil - Investors Relations.
Discussion Summary Structural Insulated Panel Production In North America: 2014 for Structural Insulated Panel Association Ft. Lauderdale, FL March 31,
MAQUILA SOLIDARITY NETWORK Prepared for the MFAF Americas Working Group Mexico Subcommittee August 19-20, 2010 Update on the Mexican garment sector.
British Columbia Economic Outlook Carol Frketich, BC Regional Economist.
ARKANSAS FRAMEWORKS BECCA WHERRY GREENBRIER, AR.
The Washington DC Housing Market: Trends and Outlook Housing Association of Non-Profit Developers December 11, 2014 Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Vice President.
CAR Commercial Forum Meeting – September 2013 (Chicago Metro) Robert Carrillo September2013.
World of Concrete Cement Outlook Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA.
The Revenue Outlook for the Commonwealth Transportation Fund A Presentation to the Commonwealth Transportation Board October 15, 2008.
Arizona Outlook ACMA Winter Conference February 5, 2009.
Distribution of Fuel By Sector: Past and Present Sustainable Air Quality Matt Fishman.
The Commercial Real Estate Outlook Patrick Newport U.S. Economist July 2010.
2008 McGraw-Hill Construction Outlook Cliff Brewis Senior Director Editorial McGraw-Hill Construction.
2011 Construction Market Forecast & Precast Detail Kenneth Kruse, FPCI,FCPCI March 18, 2011.
ECONOMIC AND HOUSING OUTLOOK David Crowe Chief Economist Blue Ridge Home Builders Association February 27, 2014.
The Race Is On! Which States and Vertical Markets Should IT Vendors Target for Growth? Jessica Goepfert Program Manager U.S. Vertical Research Juan Orozco.
The Impact of Changing Economic Conditions Since 2005 on the Forest Sector Richard W. Guldin and W. Brad Smith U.S. Forest Service Research & Development.
New England Outlook: Regional Economy and Residential Housing Industry Forecast Ross Gittell Professor, University of New Hampshire Vice President and.
Cement Outlook: Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA PCA Spring Board Meeting April 2010 Named Most Accurate Forecaster By Chicago Federal Reserve,
WHAT HAS CHANGED IN CERAMIC TILE DISTRIBUTION? April 18, 2011.
Digital Planet 2010 The Global Information Economy October 2010.
Growth Solutions Strategies and Asset Classes Well-Positioned for Capital Appreciation.
Cement Outlook Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA PCA’s Fall Board Meeting November 2011 Named Most Accurate Forecaster By Chicago Federal Reserve, 2009.
1 Value of Construction Put in Place (VIP) Recent Trends March 2006 (all-time high of $1.213 trillion) – July 2009 ($958.0 billion)
Cement Outlook: Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA PCA Fall Meetings September 2010 Named Most Accurate Forecaster By Chicago Federal Reserve,
Update of Stats SA Building Statistics Dr Johan Snyman Medium-Term Forecasting Associates STELLENBOSCH 20 January 2012 MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING ASSOCIATES.
The Effects of the Economy on Ceramic Tile Distribution November 10, 2011 Presented By: Donato Grosser D. Grosser & Associates, ltd 11 Broadway New York,
September ,000 Homes Sold In ,000 Homes Sold in SmartNumbers Predicts Normal Market Should Be 80,000 – 85,000 Sales. Expect To.
INVESTOR MANAGEMENT DAY – CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS 1.
U.S. Housing Outlook Presented By: Stanley F. Duobinis, Ph.D. President Crystal Ball Economics, Inc.
Cement Outlook Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA PCA Spring Meeting April 2012.
Connect With Concrete Cement Outlook: Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA Electric Power Conference.
The Northeast Natural Gas Market in 2030 LNG EXPRESS CONFERENCE Boston, Massachusetts September 21, 2006 William Trapmann Natural Gas Analysis Team Leader.
Distribution of Fuel By Sector: Past and Present Class Project ME Sustainable Air Quality Spring 2007 Matt Fishman Instructor: R. Husar.
U.S. Construction & Cement Outlook: 2006 NIRMMA February 6, 2006 Delray Beach, Florida Edward J. Sullivan Staff Vice President and PCA Chief Economist.
Connect With Concrete Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA.
CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST June U.S. HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK SERIES: U.S. Existing home sales of single-family homes and condo/coops SOURCE:
ASUTIL San Juan, Puerto Rico 2 September 2010 Angela Gittens Airports Council International.
WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY. West Virginia Coal Association Mining Symposium January 28, 2016.
Count on Concrete Cement Outlook: 2009 Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA.
Internationalisation Strategy Refresh Baseline data analysis Research Team Spring 2016.
September 14, 2009 Review of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy for Fiscal Year 2009 The Interim Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast for.
Lee Seung-Bok 14-15th November 2013 The 19th ASIA CONSTRUCT CONFERENCE 2013 Economy and Construction Industry - KOREA -
2015 COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTION TRENDS FOR MWCOG REGION John Kent Regional Planner Planning Directors Technical Advisory Committee June 17, 2016.
Count on Concrete Cement Outlook: 2009 Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA.
July 16, Atlas Copco Group Q2 Results July 16, 2004.
Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA
Houston’s Labor Market
Portland Cement Association United States’ Cement Outlook
Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist
Canadian Cement & Construction Outlook
Jose G. Peña, Professor and Extension Economist-Management
The Record-Setting Real Estate Cycle Chicago Market Overview
Global Precast Concrete Market Report Contact : Adding Value to Business © 2018, All Rights Reserved, Value Market.
Construction Market Report : Trends, Forecast and Competitive Analysis 1.
Global Siding Market Report : Trends, Forecast and Competitive Analysis 1.
Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA
Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist PCA
Cliff Brewis Vice President Operations Dodge Data & Analytics.
Global Siding Market Report : Trends, Forecast and Competitive Analysis 1.
Ed Sullivan Chief Economist, Group VP
The Outlook for Energy and Natural Gas Markets
Presentation transcript:

Market Forecast Update September, 2010 Kenneth Kruse Marketing Council - Committee Days Chicago, IL

2 Market Update Contents Construction Market Forecast Summary Total Construction by Building Type US Cement Consumption Precast Snap Shot Selected Building Types Parking Details Bridges Details “I do not always use concrete But when I do,I use Precast!’

3 Market Forecast Summary 2009 was awful.Worst construction market decline in 80 years!!! -25% Overall Construction, Starts dropped to 1997 levels Cement Consumption, Most severe volume decline in history! 2010 the market should pick up slightly +10 % Overall Construction Starts This is based on residential and infrastructure rebounding 2 nd half of 2010 Commercial will continue to contract (-8%) Precast concrete production flat (0%) 2011 the market will be on the up swing +23% Overall Construction( MH) +13.4% (PCA) +11.6% GIPrecast concrete production +5% !

4 Construction Snap Shot 2010/2011  US lows - pull North America down  Canada’s Residential and Stimulus / Infrastructure project pace picks up  Mexico’s forecast is positive: New projects announcing regularly

5 US & Canada Construction Snap shot

6 US Total Construction Projections -Starts ($Billions) McGraw-Hill CMFS The Construction Outlook for 2010 to 2014 is projected to be; US Total Construction ($ Billions) % -7 % -14 % -25 % +10% +23% +26% +13%+1 The housing market hit rock bottom in 2009 at -31%. Down 70% from 2005 peak ! Every major forecasting service is still projecting a 2011 rebound.

US Construction Starts 1980 – 2009 Actual Forecast

Forecast by Key Sectors

Forecast by Building Type

Continued

US Residential Forecast Units (000s)

12 US Forecast Global Insights August 2010

13 Turning the corner? Although residential building and infrastructure is expected to see an uptick in 2010,nonresidential work will continue to struggle for at least another year.

14 US Housing Comment The MH forecast for single family starts will begin to rise 28% percent to 555,000 units in 2010 after a trough of 434,000 units in 2009 This is still 74% lower than the peak of is forecasted for 810,000 SF units ( +46%) By comparison, the average level of single-family starts over the past 15 years was 1.2 million units per year. NAHB 6/9/2010

15 Residential PIP $ B 2009A, 2010 & 2011 F GI

16 Portland Cement Consumption PCA August 2010 The 26.6 % contraction in cement consumption for 2009 was the largest decline in over 20 years ! But for 2010, PCA is forecasting an increase in cement consumption of approximately 5.0% Forecast is for a 13.4 % increase in US cement consumption

17 Cement Consumption by Sector – 2009 Portland Cement Association Precast - Prestressed 10.3% Other 5% Ready Mixed – 73.4% CMU, Pavers, SRWs – 11.3% 115,000,000 Metric Tons

18 US Ready Mix Production Snap Shot 70 % of Concrete Production in US 2010F 0% 256 M yd32011P + 4% 269 M yd3 Lost almost 100 M yd vs 2009 Lost 200 M cy3 from 2005 to 2009 Provided as a Reference to Precast production

Ready Mix Market YTD NRMCA July 2010 Provided as a Reference to Precast production

/2011 RM Market Producer Survey Producer Survey projection; flat 2010 concrete production and + 5% for 2011

Portland Cement Consumption Thousand Metric Tons % % % % % %

22 Cement US PCA August 2010

Regional Cement Consumption

24 Cement Consumption by Region PCA June 2010 YTD ( from 8/23/2010 report)

25 Precast /Prestressed Snapshot

26 PCI Type Sales 2009 * Schools and Universities are combined in “Education” construction

27 Calculated Market Share by Precast Segment * Schools and Universities are combined in “Education” construction

28 Primary Segments of Precast Construction Industry Sales (Percent) 2009 Other includes Stores, Hospitals, Multifamily, Religious, sport complexes, Government, Hotels and Residential

Outlook Key Non-Residential Precast Segments Starts in Square Feet

30 US Non Residential Forecast by Building Type ($ Value)

/2011 Outlook Infrastructure Schools

32 Parking Garages Forecast MSF

33 Parking Garages by Major US Areas Short Term 2009, 2010, 2011 $B

34 Parking Garages by Regions 2010 to 2014 P $B

35 Top Parking Garage Construction By State Top 10 States for Parking Garage Construction 1)California 2)New York 3)Texas 4)Illinois 5)Ohio 6)Florida 7)District of Columbia 8)Pennsylvania 9)Washington 10)Virginia

36 Bridge Projections

37 Bridge Projection

38 Bridge Projections by Region

39 So what about the Precast/Prestressed Market ? Year% GrowthPCI Type Sales ($B) 20063% % % %$ *0%$3.4 *PC/PS slower to rebound due to product mix and rate of response Based on current data 20115% % % %4.6

40 Opportunities for 2011 & Beyond 2011 the US market will be on the up swing +23% Overall Construction( MH) +13.4% (PCA) % (GI) +5% Precast concrete production Opportunities in Sustainability!

41 Questions or Comments