Market Forecast Update September, 2010 Kenneth Kruse Marketing Council - Committee Days Chicago, IL
2 Market Update Contents Construction Market Forecast Summary Total Construction by Building Type US Cement Consumption Precast Snap Shot Selected Building Types Parking Details Bridges Details “I do not always use concrete But when I do,I use Precast!’
3 Market Forecast Summary 2009 was awful.Worst construction market decline in 80 years!!! -25% Overall Construction, Starts dropped to 1997 levels Cement Consumption, Most severe volume decline in history! 2010 the market should pick up slightly +10 % Overall Construction Starts This is based on residential and infrastructure rebounding 2 nd half of 2010 Commercial will continue to contract (-8%) Precast concrete production flat (0%) 2011 the market will be on the up swing +23% Overall Construction( MH) +13.4% (PCA) +11.6% GIPrecast concrete production +5% !
4 Construction Snap Shot 2010/2011 US lows - pull North America down Canada’s Residential and Stimulus / Infrastructure project pace picks up Mexico’s forecast is positive: New projects announcing regularly
5 US & Canada Construction Snap shot
6 US Total Construction Projections -Starts ($Billions) McGraw-Hill CMFS The Construction Outlook for 2010 to 2014 is projected to be; US Total Construction ($ Billions) % -7 % -14 % -25 % +10% +23% +26% +13%+1 The housing market hit rock bottom in 2009 at -31%. Down 70% from 2005 peak ! Every major forecasting service is still projecting a 2011 rebound.
US Construction Starts 1980 – 2009 Actual Forecast
Forecast by Key Sectors
Forecast by Building Type
Continued
US Residential Forecast Units (000s)
12 US Forecast Global Insights August 2010
13 Turning the corner? Although residential building and infrastructure is expected to see an uptick in 2010,nonresidential work will continue to struggle for at least another year.
14 US Housing Comment The MH forecast for single family starts will begin to rise 28% percent to 555,000 units in 2010 after a trough of 434,000 units in 2009 This is still 74% lower than the peak of is forecasted for 810,000 SF units ( +46%) By comparison, the average level of single-family starts over the past 15 years was 1.2 million units per year. NAHB 6/9/2010
15 Residential PIP $ B 2009A, 2010 & 2011 F GI
16 Portland Cement Consumption PCA August 2010 The 26.6 % contraction in cement consumption for 2009 was the largest decline in over 20 years ! But for 2010, PCA is forecasting an increase in cement consumption of approximately 5.0% Forecast is for a 13.4 % increase in US cement consumption
17 Cement Consumption by Sector – 2009 Portland Cement Association Precast - Prestressed 10.3% Other 5% Ready Mixed – 73.4% CMU, Pavers, SRWs – 11.3% 115,000,000 Metric Tons
18 US Ready Mix Production Snap Shot 70 % of Concrete Production in US 2010F 0% 256 M yd32011P + 4% 269 M yd3 Lost almost 100 M yd vs 2009 Lost 200 M cy3 from 2005 to 2009 Provided as a Reference to Precast production
Ready Mix Market YTD NRMCA July 2010 Provided as a Reference to Precast production
/2011 RM Market Producer Survey Producer Survey projection; flat 2010 concrete production and + 5% for 2011
Portland Cement Consumption Thousand Metric Tons % % % % % %
22 Cement US PCA August 2010
Regional Cement Consumption
24 Cement Consumption by Region PCA June 2010 YTD ( from 8/23/2010 report)
25 Precast /Prestressed Snapshot
26 PCI Type Sales 2009 * Schools and Universities are combined in “Education” construction
27 Calculated Market Share by Precast Segment * Schools and Universities are combined in “Education” construction
28 Primary Segments of Precast Construction Industry Sales (Percent) 2009 Other includes Stores, Hospitals, Multifamily, Religious, sport complexes, Government, Hotels and Residential
Outlook Key Non-Residential Precast Segments Starts in Square Feet
30 US Non Residential Forecast by Building Type ($ Value)
/2011 Outlook Infrastructure Schools
32 Parking Garages Forecast MSF
33 Parking Garages by Major US Areas Short Term 2009, 2010, 2011 $B
34 Parking Garages by Regions 2010 to 2014 P $B
35 Top Parking Garage Construction By State Top 10 States for Parking Garage Construction 1)California 2)New York 3)Texas 4)Illinois 5)Ohio 6)Florida 7)District of Columbia 8)Pennsylvania 9)Washington 10)Virginia
36 Bridge Projections
37 Bridge Projection
38 Bridge Projections by Region
39 So what about the Precast/Prestressed Market ? Year% GrowthPCI Type Sales ($B) 20063% % % %$ *0%$3.4 *PC/PS slower to rebound due to product mix and rate of response Based on current data 20115% % % %4.6
40 Opportunities for 2011 & Beyond 2011 the US market will be on the up swing +23% Overall Construction( MH) +13.4% (PCA) % (GI) +5% Precast concrete production Opportunities in Sustainability!
41 Questions or Comments