ALADIN forecast experience in Croatia Lovro Kalin, Meteorological and Hydrological Service Many thanks to: Marija Mokoric, Tanja Trosic, Martina Tudor,

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Presentation transcript:

ALADIN forecast experience in Croatia Lovro Kalin, Meteorological and Hydrological Service Many thanks to: Marija Mokoric, Tanja Trosic, Martina Tudor, Stjepan Ivatek-Sahdan, Antonio Stanesic, Natasa Strelec Mahovic, Tanja Renko...

ALADIN at DHMZ Main source for the operational forecast at National Service (along with ECMWF) Particularly for short-range AL32T3 for 8 km run, AL36T1 for 2 km NH run 4 runs (00, 06, 12, 18) ECMWF boundary conditions

Survey... Very good wind forecast Particularly for bora Not so skillfull at open sea (sirocco) Temperature forecast bad at extremes (and sudden changes) Exceptionally high Hit Rate for inversions Even overestimating (False Alarms) Overestimating the precipitation

temperature forecast...

May 2014 flood

One of the worst in the modern history Affected Bosna and Sava river catch 2 dead in Croatia tens in Serbia and BH thousands of houses destroyed the rescue was partly efficient Pointed to numerous deficiences in the rescue authorities

Sava River Satelite image NASA AQUA spectroradiometer MODIS, 19. May 2014 (combination visible and infra-red channels 7,2,1)

Sava River Copernicus GIO Emergency Management Service

Sava River Copernicus GIO Emergency Management Service

Sava River Copernicus GIO Emergency Management Service

Sava River Copernicus GIO Emergency Management Service

Comparison of measurement (purple line) to ALADIN forecasted mean and maximum wind speed of ALADIN/HR 8 km resolution and DADA 2 km resolution (00 and 12 runs) for Gradište and Zagreb.

Vertical profile...

Meteo-Alarm WARNINGS ISSUED FOR 15. MAY 2014.

Case summary Extreme rain spell Rainy period in the past – wet soil Well predicted by met. models – warnings on extreme precipitaition issued deep and unusually stationary cyclone over SE Europe (Bosnia and Herzegovina) Flood was ‘inevitable’

2014 freezing rain From Jan 31 st to Feb 5 th dsdf Croatia and Slovenia Damage 450 mil HRK = 60 mil EUR (Croatia) Was not forecasted at all?! (Croatia)