1 Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe Klimakonferanse Oslo 4 April Dr. Andreas Barkman Project manager GHG emissions and emission trading European Environment Agency

2 The European Environment Agency is the EU body dedicated to providing sound, independent information on the environment European Environment Agency

EEA member and collaborating countries Member countries Collaborating countries

4 The climate change problem - examples of potential impacts in Europe

5 European temperature projected to increase most in north and south (Mediterranean) Source: PESETA project, PRUDENCE; IPCC SRES A2 high emission scenario (change mean annual temperature relative to )

6 Precipitation projected to increase in northern, decrease in southern Europe; more frequent droughts and floods likely Source: PESETA project, PRUDENCE; IPCC SRES A2 high emission scenario (change mean annual precipitation relative to )

7 EEA work on GHG emission Compiles the EU GHG inventory and reporting under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Assesses progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets Assesses efficiency of polices and measures Analyse the application and effect of the EU ETS Provides GHG emissions data in useful formats

8 GHG trends in Europe ‘If you want to understand today, you have to search yesterday’

9 Total GHG emission by main sector 2005

10 Greenhouse gas emissions per capita (tonnes CO2 eq/year)

11 GHG emissions per GDP (EU27=100)

12 EU GHG emissions

13 Transport GHG emissions rise as transport volumes increases

14 Key messages: GHG emission trends EU27 per capita emission and per GDP emissions has decreased Variation among countries is large. EU27 GHG emissions has decreased by 7.9% Reasons: Domestic and EU wide polices and measures Liberalisation of energy market in UK (‘dash-for- gas’) Economic restructuring in the new Member states The German re-unification Transport is the only sector on EU level that has shown large increases in GHG emissions since 1990

15 GHG projections ‘ Predictions are difficult, especially of the future’

16 EU-27 emissions are projected to be 10% below 1990 with all measures in 2010

17 EU-15 is capable of reaching the Kyoto target……

18 ….but only through all measures, Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks

19 Key messages GHG projections EU-15 is capable of meeting its Kyoto target with some margin: IF existing domestic policies and measures fully delivers the envisaged reductions AND IF additional policies and measures are rapidly adopted and implemented AND IF removals from land use, land-use change and forestry are accounted AND IF the planned use of Kyoto mechanisms is fully implemented by Member States AND IF some Member States over deliver in line with their projections to compensate potential gaps by other Member States AND IF emission reductions currently projected for the year 2010 is achieved during the whole 5-year commitment period, 2008 until 2012 AND  CLOSE TRACKING IS CRUCIAL

20 ‘ From Kyoto through Bali to Copenhagen’

21 The challenges How to bring US, China and India onboard? How to find a fair split of efforts between developed and developing countries How to develop the toolbox to curb emissions Time is short

22

23 EU commitments 20% unilaterally by % in context global deal 60-80% by 2050 Carbon market as a key tool

24 EU GHG Target: -20% compared to % compared to 2005 EU ETS -21% compared to 2005 Non ETS sectors -10% compared to Member State targets, stretching from -20% to +20%

25 A global carbon market..EU vision Significant role of the carbon market already today – should be strenghtened post An environmentally more effective CDM should continue to play a role Carbon market is part of the solution but not a panacea – needs to be combined with other tools to further technology cooperation, financial flows and investment

26 Thank you for your attention! See for more information the EEA web site: Thank you for your attention! See for more information the EEA web site:

27 Mitigation in developing countries Toolbox: oNo commitments for least developed countries oSustainable development policies oEnhanced CDM oPerformance-based funding oSectoral approaches oQuantified emission limits Reaching development objectives will be imperative; mitigation and adaptation Reduce growth of emissions asap, and absolute reductions after 2020

28 ‘ Man is the only animal that makes bargains; one dog does not change bones with another dog’

29 The EU Emission Trading Scheme Why? Main instrument for reaching targets (KP/2020) Quantitative and absolute Must be reflected in GHG inventories and projections What? Establish links between EU ETS and GHG Inventories/projections Bring transparency in data and application How? Work under GHG MM and National Inventory System to establish robust links EUETS/total GHG and projections Art 21 reporting and analysis of CITL information Today EU ETS

30 Status EU ETS

31 Key messages: EU ETS NAP2 will cut CO2 emissions with ca 7% compared to 2005/6 EU ETS emissions EU ETS will contribute with ca 3.4% reduction for EU15 towards Kyoto targets (if EU ETS data is fully reflected in GHG inventories and registries) All emission reductions by installations under the EU ETS could, in theory, be achieved by using CDM and JI credits More harmonization and transparency is needed when it comes to the application of the EU ETS in MS

32 Total EU GHG emissions and the EU ETS EU ETS Non-EU ETS 40% 60%

33 CO2 emissions from households decreased by 1.7 % from 1990 to 2005, while the number of dwellings increased by 18 % EU15EU27

34 EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport increased by 26 % between 1990 and 2005 and are projected to be stabilised at current levels EU15EU27

35 Average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars were reduced by 12 % from 1995 to 2004, but progress is slowing down

36 For the Commission has enforced stricter caps about 7.0 % below verified emissions in 2005/2006

37 Projected use of Kyoto mechanisms (CDM, JI) by 12 EU MS is about 2.5% of -8% target (107.5 Mt) Member State Planned use of Kyoto mechanisms by government to meet its burden sharing target Projected emission reduction 2008– 12 through the use of Kyoto mechanisms [Million tonnes CO 2 -equivalents per year] Allocated Budget [EUR million] AustriaYes BelgiumYes DenmarkYes FinlandYes GermanyNo-23 IrelandYes ItalyYes LuxembourgYes NetherlandsYes PortugalYes SpainYes SwedenYes(1.2) a 25 EU-15Yes SloveniaYes< 0.6-