TRENDS, IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY RESPONSES 1 Climate Change.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Framework Convention on Climate Change n Basis for all negotiations since 1992 n Ratified by 186 Countries n Ratified by United States n Commits all Parties.
Advertisements

1 Achieving the 2ºC target in the Copenhagen Accord: an assessment using a global model E3MG Terry Barker Presentation to the Institute for Sustainable.
Carbon Emissions. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration Atmospheric increase = Emissions from fossil fuels + Net emissions from changes in land use.
Climate Change - International Efforts. Direct Observation of Climate Change Source: IPCC 4AR.
Climate Change Policy of Brazil. Introduction Brazil has: –6% of world’s surface –27% of world’s population –1.3% growth rate –5.5 million square kilometers.
Global Warming and the Kyoto Protocol Amy Braun Liliana Lavalle.
Fossil Fuel Economy Current economic system is based on the extensive use of fossil fuels in production 87% 87% of world energy production – Petroleum:
The Economics of Global Warming
Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and Civil Engineering Dr Stuart Parkinson
Paul V. Desanker Head, LDC and CB & Outreach Units, UNFCCC Secretariat Bonn, Germany The UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol and its mechanisms IFAD 1 st CLIMTRAIN.
Basic Climate Change Science, Human Response and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Prepared for the National Workshop.
Kyoto Protocol and Beyond
Sciencephotolibrary. UNFCCC COP and MOP outcomes – a brief history and current status Parliament 27 th October 2011 Dr Guy Midgley Chief Director South.
Global Warming & the Kyoto Protocols. The topic of global warming inspires heated debates among world leaders. The topic of global warming inspires heated.
International cooperation Part IV. The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Session 7.
International cooperation Part IV. The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Session 7.
Think, pair, share Individually, you have 5 minutes to think about possible management strategies for global warming Now share your ideas with you neighbour.
Global Air Quality: Policies for Ozone Depletion and Global Warming Chapter 13 © 2004 Thomson Learning/South-Western.
Should the U.S. ratify it? Daniela Sol 21 Oct PROTOCOL.
Introduction to Climate Change: - global warming - basis steps in a clean development project - connection of CDM with European Trading Scheme Wim Maaskant.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: An Overview Ko Barrett Deputy Director NOAA Climate Program Office 7 February
Brief Overview of Legal Framework: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol M.J.Mace Climate Change and Energy Programme, FIELD LDC Workshop Nairobi, Kenya 2-3 November.
Origins of the CDM - Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol Capacity Development for the Clean Development Mechanism (CD4CDM) Project 2 nd National Workshop.
SHIFTING POWERS AND INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE NORMS Dr Rowena Maguire.
Climate Change: Responses By Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh 8-9 April 2008 Dhaka.
History of the Climate Negotations Jennifer L. Morgan WWF September 2005.
AGEC/FNR 406 LECTURE 21 Atmospheric Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide,
Initiation to Carbon Trading The Educational Game International Institute of Industrial Environmental Economics Environmental Management and Policy - Batch.
EU Climate Action EU – Central Asia Working Group on
Mitigation of Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Cradles of civilization. Were the ancient people stupid? Ancient view of nature Industry revolution:
Climate Change Climate Change vs. Global Warming Global Warming Long-term rise in Earth’s temperature (a few degrees) Increase in greenhouse effect.
Global Climate Alteration: A Survey of the Science and Policy Implications D. Warner North (presenter), replacing Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University,
Climate Change Pre-Quiz 1.What is the “greenhouse effect”? 2.What are examples of greenhouse gases? 3.Is climate change natural or human- made? How do.
Directorate General for Energy and Transport Advanced fossil fuel boiler technologies for reaching the goals of the Kyoto protocol OPET-Seminar Celje,
The Kyoto Protocol and Copenhagen Climate Change Conference
1 All Island Environmental Health Forum Tomorrow’s Environmental Health Developments in the International Climate Change Agenda Owen Ryan Department of.
Kyoto Protocol IDC3O3 Ms. Nguyen.
Overview on CDM By Ann Gordon Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment 14 th July 2011.
1 Economics 331b Spring 2009 International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Economics, Law.
National and Global Initiatives IB SL. International Policy The 1988 Toronto conference on climate change called for the reduction of CO 2 Emissions by.
The Green Climate Fund: Challenges and Opportunities Some thoughts on how the Green Climate Fund could close the Energy Justice gap Martin Hiller, Energy.
Newton Paciornik BRAZIL Policy Goals and Common Metrics Implications Bonn, 04 April 2012 Workshop on common metrics to calculate the CO 2 equivalence of.
The Kyoto Protocol’s Flexibility Mechanisms. Major Issues in Implementing Flex Mechs Supplementarity Additionality – Baselines – Additionality – Leakage.
THE UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (FCCC) Historical Aspects: In 1990 the UN General Assembly established a Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee.
Introduction to International Climate Change Law Prof. Tracy Hester Environmental Law Fall 2015 Houston, Texas October 13, 2015.
Kyoto Protocol. What is Kyoto protocol?  UN held a conference on environment (known as Earth Summit) in Brazil in ’92.  A treaty called United Nations.
Global Warming - 2 The difficult issues PowerPoint 97 PowerPoint 97 To download: Shift LeftClick Please respect copyright on this material.
The Politics of Climate Change. Climate change What prevents the international community from responding effectively to climate change? 4/16/2008Hans.
Mitigation of Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Cradles of civilization. Were the ancient people stupid? Ancient view of nature Industry revolution:
© dreamstime CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.
REDD+ negotiations and key milestones from Cancun to Durban Geneva, 9 May 2011 Clea Paz-Rivera, UN-REDD Secretariat.
Brief Overview of Legal Framework: UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol M.J.Mace Climate Change and Energy Programme, FIELD LDC Workshop Montreal Canada November.
Climate Change Mitigation and Complexity Agus P Sari Country Director, Indonesia EcoSecurities.
Equity and Global Climate Change Developing Countries and the Climate Change Challenge Alistair Maclean, Australian Embassy.
Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing. Global Mean Surface Air Temperature.
A Brief History of REDD + Regional REDD+ Coordination Unit Tigray Regional State,Mekelle Sep 3 & 4/2015 MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND FOREST NATIONAL REDD+
Introduction to International Climate Change Law
ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Conference of Parties to United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC): 21st Session (COP21) H.N.K.T.Dulani Assistant Director Climate.
Our Changing Atmosphere
National and Global Initiatives
1 Summary for Policymakers
KYOTO PROTOCOL.
1 Summary for Policymakers
1 Summary for Policymakers
Kyoto Protocol.
2.5 Can we slow climate change?
1 Summary for Policymakers
TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections
History of climate change
Presentation transcript:

TRENDS, IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY RESPONSES 1 Climate Change

Learning Objectives 2 At the end of this topic you should be able to: Outline the trends in GHG emissions over time and identify the major emitters by region and country Discuss the drivers of GHG emissions Understand, why the problem of climate change is difficult to remedy for individual nations Discuss the most effective global strategies designed to alleviate the problem of climate change

Climate Change Definition 3 The UNFCC (2014) defines climate change as ‘ a change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’

Climate Change 4 Greenhouse gases (Co2, CFCs, nitrous oxide, methane) absorb the infra-red radiation from the earths surface and trap the heat, raising the temperature of the earths surface How severe is the problem? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report, 2014 – Assessment Report 5

IPCC Report ‘science now shows with 95% certainly that human activity is the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid 20 th century’ most of the observed increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations’ (p.10) ‘predicts an average global rise in temperature of 3.7 C to 4.8C by 2100 without mitigation efforts

Summary IPCC (2014) 6

Potential climate changes impact 7

Trends in CO2 Emissions Co2 Emissions

GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.

Trends in GHG emissions 10 From global emissions increased by 61%. Global GHG emissions increased to 36bn tons of CO2 in 2013 and are predicted to grow by a further 2.5% annually This is about 65% more fossil-fuel emission that 1990, when international climate negotiations began with the aim of reducing emissions Growth of global emissions since 2009 has been slower than in the period Global emissions are expected to grow to almost 45bn tons by 2019 According to the IPCC, if this trend continues, this could lead to global average temperature increases of between 3.2C and 5.4C by 2100

Trends in Co2 emissions: 11 Two thirds of Emissions come from less developed countries that account for 80% of the global population Top 6 emitters are China (20%), the US (16%), EU- 27 (11%), India (6%), Russia (5%) and Japan (4%) Many countries in the OECD in 2013 achieved emission reductions including EU-28 (-1.8%) and Australia (2%)Why?

Top Emitters by Region (tonnes co2) 12

Co2 Emissions per capita

Per Capita Emissions 14 In 2011, per capital Co2 emissions in China increased by 9% to 7.2 tonnes (similar to EU 7.5 tonnes). Emissions grew at just 4.2% in 2013 US was largest CO emitter at 17.3 tonnes per capita. Concentration of Co2 emissions has increased from 356 to 392 ppm since 1992 If current global emissions continues, in just two decades we will have reached a global increase in temperature of 2.C

Top Ten Emitters By Country,

Global Co2 Emissions by Country 16

GHG Emission Drivers 17 Growth in Emission levels are driven by  Economic Growth  Population Growth  Energy Intensity of Growth (Energy/GDP)  Emission Intensity of Energy Growth in economic output and population are the two main drivers for increasing GHG emissions and outpace emission reductions from improvements in energy efficiency

GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population; long-standing trend of decarbonisation of energy reversed.

Carbon Intensity of Energy is increasing Between 2000 and 2010 increased use of coal relative to many other energy sources has reversed a long standing trend of gradual decarbonisation of the worlds energy supply Increased use of coal, especially in developing Asia, is increasing GHG emissions Without policy efforts to reduce GHG emissions the fundamental drivers of emissions growth are expected to persist despite major improvements in energy supply and technologies Without policy action the IPCC (2013) estimate that GHG emissions will be somewhere between 750 and 1300ppm by 2100

Results even if GHG are stabilised? 20 Global warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised

21 The temperature will increase long after emissions are reduced

Policy Objectives 22 The common goal of UNFCC is to limit the global temperature increase to 2’C To achieve the atmospheric concentration levels can be no more than 450ppm According to the IPCC to achieve this will require between a 40 and 70% cut in emissions by 2050

Climate Change Mitigation 23 UNFCC (2014) defines climate change mitigation as ‘ a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases’ ‘Ultimate goal of mitigation is preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system within a time frame to allow ecosystems to adapt, to ensure food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’ (UNFCC, 2014)

International Agreements 24 International Cooperation is necessary to significantly mitigate climate change (Global commons problem) According to the IPCC 2014 report international cooperation has produced “agreement regarding a long term goal of limiting global temperature increase to no more than 2C above preindustrial levels, but the overall level of mitigation achieved to date by cooperation appears inadequate to achieve this goal”

The Kyoto protocol: International Agreements on Climate Change 25 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 1992 Kyoto Protocol agreed in December, 1997 and set legally binding emission targets and was opened for signing in January, 1998 Became effective when enough countries signed the agreement and represented at least 55 per cent of the total C02 emissions (2005) Called for a 5 per cent reduction in average annual emissions below 1990 levels 187 signatories (US not ratified) covering 64% of global CO2 emissions Kyoto Agreement has 2 commitment periods: and

Implementation Mechanism 26 Three Mechanisms (1) Emissions Trading (2) Joint Implementation (3) Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) Emissions trading is the primary tool used to fulfil emission targets

Emissions Trading 27 Biggest benefit of emissions trading is that it offers participating countries a way to meet their targets cost effectively and in a flexible way Emissions trading encourages the mobilisation of private capital Encourages technical innovation And should reduce the long run cost of controlling climate change /nov/26/kyoto-protocol-carbon-emissions /nov/26/kyoto-protocol-carbon-emissions really-been-successful/ really-been-successful/

Evaluating Climate Change Policies 28 Four Criteria Environmental Effectiveness Aggregate Economic Performance Distributional Impacts Institutional Feasibility

Was Kyoto Agreement effective? 29 Environmental Effectiveness?  The aggregate emission countries (38 Annex 1) have reduced emissions by 9.2% below the Kyoto Protocols below the 5.2% target but this was due to global economic recession and countries in transition  Environmental effectiveness reduced due to Participation issues (US not participating)

Was Kyoto Protocol Effective? 30 Economic Performance Were the three market based instruments cost effective and did they maximise social benefit In theory the emissions trading should have reduced abatement costs by 50% in practice there were too few trades Joint implementation- should have improved cost effectiveness but tended to be limited to a few countries Clean Development mechanism effectiveness is limited because of additionally of projects, emission leakage and price decreases

Was Kyoto Protocol Effective? 31 Distributional Impacts were limited due to a concentration of projects in a limited number of countries Also non-annex 1 countries saw cumulative increases in GHGs that were very significant

Was Kyoto Protocol Effective? 32 Institutional Feasibility Ratified by 191 countries (plus the EU). Participation dropped in the second commitment period ( ) Issues with enforcement and weakness of sanctions

Successor to Kyoto –Copenhagen UN Climate change Conference, Copenhagen, 2009 Expectation that treaty to succeed Kyoto Protocol would be adopted Copenhagen accord recognized the scientific case for keeping temperatures below 2C But DOES NOT contain commitments to reduce emissions to achieve this objective Pledges funds to help developing countries adapt to climate change The accord was not formally adopted but just ´noted´ by countries

Durban Platform, UNFCCC Durban Durban platform agreed decision to adopt by 2015 ´a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the convention applicable to all parties´ and to come into effect and ´be implemented beginning in 2020’ Also agreed to a temperature taget by international communities and pledges for emission reductions. Problem: Still significant gap even if all pledges are filled which make it less likely to reach 2C target

The 2015 International Agreement 35 Negotiations launched in 2011 at the Durban Climate Conference for a new international climate change agreement that covers all countries will be adopted in 2015 and implemented from 2020 Agreement set to take the form of a legally binding instrument and binding commitments on emission reductions The EU, a few other European countries and Australia have joined a legally binding second period of the Kyoto Protocl which runs until ndex_en.htm ndex_en.htm

Summary 36 Very difficult to control pollution when it is a global problem There is still significant scientific uncertainty regarding the pace of climate change Cost effective policies to reduce global emissions will be adopted more quickly by countries Effective policies require participation by a strong majority of countries if the problem of climate change is to be controlled

Reading 37 OECD (2012) Environmental Outlook to 2050, Chapter 3 IPCC 2014 Report chapter 13 IPCC 2014 Report technical summary Field & Field (2013): Environmental Economics: An Introduction, ch. 20 pp Olivier et al (2013)Trends in Global Co2 Emissions:2012 Report.European Commission Green et al (2007), Climate Change: Caps V Taxes, Environmental Policy Outlook No.2 Kettner et al (2008) Stringency and Distribution in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme: First Evidence. Climate Policy, 8, pp likely-that-human-activity-is-driving-climate-change-panel- finds.html?pagewanted=all -likely-that-human-activity-is-driving-climate-change-panel- finds.html?pagewanted=all Embedded links (short articles)