1 Glen Sweetnam Energy Information Administration Houston, Texas November 16, 2007 Outlook for North American Natural Gas Demand.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Washington, DC June 20, 2006 International Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030.

Advertisements

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis American Gas Association Legislative Forum May 1, 2012| Miami, FL.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Reference Case AEO2014 Early.

California Energy Commission North American Market Gas-trade (NAMGas) Model: Key Drivers and Structure 2015 Integrated Energy Policy Report California.

Slide title Industrial Natural Gas Demand. Slide title The factors affecting EIA’s industrial natural gas consumption forecast  GDP;  Employment; 

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis The U.S. Natural Gas and Shale Production Outlook for North American.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for U.S. shale oil and gas IAEE/AEA Meeting January 4, 2014.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Oil and Gas Outlook For Independent Petroleum Association of America.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Energy Outlook For Baltimore Chartered Financial Analyst Society.

International Energy Outlook 2013

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2015 AEO2015 Rollout Presentation Center for.

Annual Energy Outlook 2015 For Columbia University

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Net energy analysis: a policy analysis perspective Net Energy Analysis.

James M. Kendell Energy Information Administration The Aspen Institute June 28, 2008 Aspen, Colorado Global Gas Outlook.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis International Energy Outlook 2014 For Columbia University Center on.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis The U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Production Outlook for PRG Energy Outlook.

WORLD OIL AND NORTH AMERICAN NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK November 2006.

Natural Gas Outlook National Association of State Energy Officials State Heating Oil and Propane Conference August 30, 2004 William Trapmann Energy Information.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis US Extractive Industry Overview: Oil, Gas, and Coal United States.

Economic and Environmental Impacts of Increased U.S. Natural Gas Exports Kemal Sarica Wallace E. Tyner Purdue University July 28-31, 2013 ANCHORAGE 32.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. For Council.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Lower oil prices and the energy outlook For Alaska Oil & Gas Association.

SHORT - TERM NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK National Association of State Energy Officials State Heating Oil and Propane Conference August 7, 2006 Barbara Mariner-Volpe,

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis IEA and EIA: Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Transformation of the U.S. energy landscape Georgetown Energy and.

Rising Food and Energy Prices October 2 nd, 2008 Corvallis, Oregon A. Michael Schaal Director, Oil and Gas Division Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

1 EIA’s Electricity Forecasting for the U.S. and the South By: Marilyn Brown, Matt Cox, Alex Smith, and Xiaojing Sun Georgia Institute of Technology July.

Natural Gas Markets and Reliability of the Electric Power Industry William Trapmann, Energy Information Administration Natural.

International Energy Outlook 2010 With Projections to 2035.

1 Status of and Outlook for Coal Supply and Demand in the U.S. Imagine West Virginia Spring 2010 Board of Governors Meeting April 13, 2010 Scott Sitzer.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus for Flame 2012 April 17, 2012.

Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Energy Information Administration December.

1 Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Georgetown University March 17, 2008 International Energy Outlook: The Future of Energy.

The Outlook for Electricity Supply and Demand to 2035: Key Drivers

The Outlook for Energy Markets.  World oil markets have become increasingly tight since  Global demand growth, fed by worldwide economic growth,

Natural Gas Outlook North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB) Annual Meeting September 17, 2003 Barbara Mariner-Volpe, Energy Information Administration.

Natural Gas Update: EIA NARUC Winter Meeting Barbara Mariner-Volpe, Energy Information Administration February 23, 2003.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for Energy Markets for U.S. Chamber of Commerce October 15,

The Northeast Natural Gas Market in 2030 LNG EXPRESS CONFERENCE Boston, Massachusetts September 21, 2006 William Trapmann Natural Gas Analysis Team Leader.

Energy Information Adminisration’s Outlook On Natural Gas Arkansas Public Service Commission “The Future Supply And Price of Natural Gas” June 3, 2003.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Natural Gas Markets: Recent Changes and Key Drivers for LDC Gas Forum.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the.

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies December 14, 2009 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis International Energy Outlook 2013 for Center for Strategic and International.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Prospects for U.S. Oil & Natural Gas for The Aspen Institute: Global.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Key Drivers Affecting the Outlook for Renewables For US Power & Renewable.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Lower oil prices and the energy outlook May 2015 Ottawa, Canada By.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Reference Case AEO2014 Early.

Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Early Release Energy Information Administration.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2015 United States Energy Association USEA Executive.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Natural gas and oil: U.S. outlook and global implications for World.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. For American.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis AEO2012 Early Release Rollout Presentation Paul H. Nitze School of.

The Future Electricity Fuels Mix: Key Drivers

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. for FLAME.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for coal and electricity for National Coal Council November.

Natural Gas Outlook The Tennessee Regulatory Authority Natural Gas Symposium August 19, 2003 Roy Kass Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Natural Gas Demand: New Domestic Uses and LNG Exports Natural Gas.

Understanding the Impacts of Incremental Gas Supply on the Flow Dynamics Across the North American Grid Canadian Institute Vancouver, BC November 20, 2006.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis International Energy Outlook 2016 For Center for Strategic and International.

ENERGY & CLIMATE ASSESSMENT TEAM National Risk Management Research Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research.

Figure 1. Emission Levels, Reference Case Projections for 2010 and 2020, and Target Caps for Electricity Generators Target 0 2,000 4,000 6,000.

EIA’s April 2005 Analysis of Modeled NCEP Recommendations

World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030

Current Power and Energy Landscape

International Energy Outlook:

Biofuel Demand Projections In the Annual Energy Outlook

The Outlook for Energy and Natural Gas Markets

North American Energy Outlook

Presentation transcript:

1 Glen Sweetnam Energy Information Administration Houston, Texas November 16, 2007 Outlook for North American Natural Gas Demand

2 Outlook for Natural Gas Demand Key Assumptions Reference Case Projections Two Wildcards –Gas for Power Generation –Industrial Gas Consumption

3 Average Annual GDP and Population Growth for Selected Regions, Source: EIA, IEO2007

4 World Oil Prices in Three World Oil Price Cases, HistoryProjections Source: EIA, AEO2007 $ 59 $ 100 $ 36

5 World Oil Prices in Three World Oil Price Cases, HistoryProjections Source: EIA, AEO2007 $ 95 $ 157 $ 58

6 Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three Cases (2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet) HistoryProjections High oil price case $7.63 Low oil price case $5.06 Reference case $5.98 Annual Energy Outlook 2007

7 North American End-Use Energy Consumption 26%49%24%41% Percent Change Source: International Energy Outlook 2007

8 North American Marketed Energy Use by Resource Liquids Natural Gas Coal Renewables Nuclear HistoryProjections 39% 9% 23% 7% Share of Regional Total 23% 41% 24% 20% 8% Source: International Energy Outlook 2007

9 North American Natural Gas Consumption, 2004 and 2030 Source: International Energy Outlook 2007 Percent Change % 54% 136% 17%

10 U.S. End-Use Natural Gas Consumption 9%35%17% Percent Change Source: Annual Energy Outlook % 48%

11 Canadian End-Use Natural Gas Consumption 14%20%72%42% Percent Change Source: International Energy Outlook %

12 Mexican End-Use Natural Gas Consumption 162%158%92% Percent Change Source: International Energy Outlook %

13 North American Net Electricity Generation United States Canada Mexico Total North America Percent Change % 44% 46% 133% Source: International Energy Outlook 2007

14 North American Net Electricity Generation by Fuel Type Source: International Energy Outlook 2007

15 U.S. Gas Consumption by Sector (trillion cubic feet) Transportation** Industrial* Residential Commercial Electric Power Projections History * Includes lease and plant fuel ** Includes pipeline fuel Annual Energy Outlook 2007

16 Canada Gas Consumption by Sector (quadrillion Btu) Transportation Industrial* Residential Commercial Electric Power * Includes lease and plant fuel Source: International Energy Outlook 2007

17 Mexican Gas Consumption by Sector (quadrillion Btu) Transportation Industrial* Residential Commercial Electric Power * Includes lease and plant fuel Source: International Energy Outlook 2007

18 Scenarios Examined by EIA to Assess Impact of Climate Change Initiatives on U.S. Natural Gas Markets Reference Case = EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 S. 280 Core Case = Provisions implemented under the Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007 RefNB = Reference Nuclear and Biomass Case. Holds nuclear and biomass to their reference case level through 2030 RefNB+noCCS = Reference Nuclear and Biomass plus no Carbon Capture and Sequestration Case. Adds the limitation that coal with CCS cannot be deployed before 2030 RefNBLNG+noCCS = Attempts to simulate a price scenario that assumes an OPEC-like natural gas cartel. In addition to the generation technology restrictions in the RefNB+noCCS case, LNG imports are held at the reference case level

Refer- ence S. 280 Core RefNBRefNB+ noCCS RefNBL NG+ noCCS Natural Gas Generation (bkwh) ,2591,6711,540 Total Natural Gas Use (tcf) Natural Gas for Generation (tcf) LNG Supply (tcf) CO2 Permit Price ($/ton)n/a $47.90$53.10$61.20$61.80 Natural Gas Price at Henry Hub ($/mmBtu) $8.60$6.44$6.12$6.73$7.17$7.55 U.S. Natural Gas Indicators Under Various Climate Change Initiatives Source: EIA, Supplement to: Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 280, the Climate Stewardship And Innovation Act of

20 Industrial sector accounts for largest percentage of total U.S. natural gas consumption. Business operations of industrial sector consumers are sensitive to large, sustained swings in the price of natural gas. Annual average price to industrial consumers was $3.59/MMCF in 1997 and $7.88/MMCF in 2006 (nominal). U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 2006 Overview: Natural Gas Consumption in the Industrial Sector

21 The Composition of Industrial Natural Gas Consumption: 2002 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS)

22 NAICS Code Industry Subgroup 1994 Natural Gas Consumption (Bcf) 1998 Natural Gas Consumption (Bcf) 2002 Natural Gas Consumption (Bcf) 311Food Paper Petroleum and Coal Products Basic Chemicals1037ª Resins and Plastic Materials c Agricultural Chemicals Nonmetallic Mineral Products419 b Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Other TOTAL6,6357,2316, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS)

23 The Puzzle: Industrial Natural Gas Demand not Correlated with Industrial Production Index

24 Conclusions High level of uncertainty regarding gas use in the power generation and industrial sectors In last 10 years, U.S. industrial gas consumption has declined despite growth in output Policy measures designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could have a significant impact on U.S. gas consumption — gas use could be as low as 24 tcf or as high as 30 tcf in 2030.

25 Glen Sweetnam Periodic Reports Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2007, February 2007 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007 Special Analyses “Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2007 “Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook