Causal truthmakers vs Causal interpretations Federica Russo Philosophy, Kent

Background Joint work with Alessio Moneta on the causal interpretation of econometric models Two ideas Work out the details of the distinction statistical model vs causal model Complement methodological arguments with philosophical considerations about ‘interpreting an econometric model causally’

interpreting What’s interpreting an econometric model causally?

Examples of causal claims (in economics/econometrics) Keynesian economics – Employment is a function of demand, not supply Keynesian policy – Government actions can change unemployment, by intervening on fiscal deficit (e.g. tax cuts) and monetary policy (e.g. interests rates) Friedman’s monetary theory – Price inflation and money supply are (causally) related Phillips’ curve – The lower the unemployment in an economy, the higher the inflation rates …

Interpreting causal claims (in economics/econometrics) Find what makes the causal claim true Interpreting a claim is finding its truthmaker(s) Establish whether the causal model valid Interpreting a claim is an epistemic activity

truthmakers The philosophers’ hunt for truthmakers … that is, what makes a causal claim true Difference-makers Probabilistic, Counterfactual, Manipulation Mechanisms Physical processes Complex-system mechanisms 6

Anything wrong with the hunt? Conceptual analysis in philosophy of causality What explicates the concept of ‘causality’ What makes causal claims true What is causality, metaphysically Conceptual analysts Failed to distinguish between evidence and concept Lost on the way scientific practices Forgot the notion of validity 7

interpreting What’s interpreting an econometric model causally? An epistemic activity …

In the footprints of epistemic theorists Evidence and concept Evidential pluralism: difference-making and mechanistic considerations Conceptual monism: causation is an inferential map Causality: an epistemic category to interpret the world rather than a physical relation in our ontology 9

Interpreting Interpreting in causal terms … valid … is deciding whether a model is valid or not Making successful inferences Not merely dependent on the physical existence of mechanisms Mechanisms have explanatory import Mechanistic and difference-making evidential components are tangled 10

The causal interpretation is model-dependent Causal conclusions depend on the statistical machinery from which they are inferred and on background knowledge used in model building Not a bad thing after all Causation is not a ‘all or nothing’ affair Nor a ‘once and for all’ affair 11

Concluding thoughts how to interpret The hunt for truthmakers does not answer the question of how to interpret models causally validity The causal interpretation of models is a matter of validity, rather than truth The issue arises outside economics too – the argument can therefore be generalised