The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 The New Economics of Real Estate IREM San Diego Chapter 18 2010.

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The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 The New Economics of Real Estate IREM San Diego Chapter Annual Economic Forecast Breakfast December 9, 2010 Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Chief Economist Fermanian Business & Economic Institute Point Loma Nazarene University

Key Topics  Economic Backdrop  Key Segments Apartments Industrial Office Retail  The New “Normal” for Real Estate The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010

Economic Backdrop

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 U.S. Real GDP Posts Moderate Rebound 4 th quarter, percent change over prior year

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Consumer Prices Still Subdued 4 th quarter, percent change over prior year

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 San Diego to See More Jobs in 2011 December, change from previous year, thousands

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Interest Rates to Eventually Rise Quarter-end, percent

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Banks Still Restrict Real Estate Lending Net percentage tightening or relaxing terms Looser Tighter Source: U.S. Federal Reserve survey

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Key Commercial Real Estate Sectors

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Commercial Real Estate Prospects San Diego, Scale 0 to 10 AbysmalFairExcellent

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Strengths  Sharp Drop in Building  Job Growth  Military Demand  “Uncoupling” Weaknesses  Home Ownership More Attractive  “Shadow” Housing Inventory Apartments

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 San Diego Apartment Vacancy Rates Healthy Percent, year-end Source: Rentalowner; FBEI

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Strengths  Inventory Rebuilding  Foreign Trade  No New Supply  Technology Firms Weaknesses  Maturing 5-year leases  E-Commerce and Point-to-Point Shipping Industrial

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Industrial Vacancy Rates Peak Percent, annual average Source: Costar; FBEI

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Strengths  Minimal New Space  Job Gains in Professional Services  Health Care Expands Weaknesses  Companies Cut Costs  Outsourcing Jobs  Government Demand Drops Office

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Office Vacancy Rates High Percent, annual average Source: Costar; FBEI

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Strengths  Little New Supply  Consumer Spending rises  Retail Profits Improve  Location Matters Weaknesses  E-Commerce  Tenant “Poaching”  Fringe Retail Strips, Older Malls, Empty Box Power Centers Retail

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Retail Vacancy Rates Slowly Subside Percent, quarterly Source: Costar; FBEI

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 New Economics of Commercial Real Estate

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Long-Term Changes  Technology and E-Commerce  Social Media  Investors Greater Role  Foreign Demand  Environmental Standards  Technology and E-Commerce  Social Media  Investors Greater Role  Foreign Demand  Environmental Standards

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Temporary Changes  Low Interest Rates  Double-Digit Unemployment  Rent Declines  Management of Distressed Properties  Low Interest Rates  Double-Digit Unemployment  Rent Declines  Management of Distressed Properties

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 Remaining Unchanged  Cyclicality  Cost Control and Efficiency Vital  Capital/Debt Ratios Important  Tenant Relationships Key  Value Good Employees  Integrity Counts  Cyclicality  Cost Control and Efficiency Vital  Capital/Debt Ratios Important  Tenant Relationships Key  Value Good Employees  Integrity Counts

The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute – business & economics in action © FBEI 2010 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute at Point Loma Nazarene University Educational, Business & Economic Resources for the San Diego Region  Research & White Papers  Business Plan Writing  Strategic Retreats  Economic Consulting  Public Speaking  Internships  MBA Program at Mission Valley Campus

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