HOT TOWERS AND HURRICANE INTENSIFICATION Steve Guimond Florida State University.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
4. First look Initial analysis of contrasting timeseries (Figure 2) shows: Shorter timescales have a smaller range of mass fluxes with lower maxima and.
Advertisements

DYMECS: Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (NERC Standard Grant) University of Reading: Robin Hogan, Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein,
DYMECS: Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (NERC Standard Grant) University of Reading: Robin Hogan, Bob Plant, Thorwald Stein,
Hurricane Frances. MODIS view of Hurricane Frances (Note that eye is present but clouds at base of eye make it look cloudy throughout)
Sensitivity of High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations SCOTT A. BRAUN AND WEI-KUO TAO PRESENTATION.
Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): 2014 Results Dr. Scott Braun, HS3 PI Paul Newman, HS3 Deputy PI NASA Goddard Space Flight Center IHC, Jacksonville,
E. C. Meyers, G. M. McFarquhar, B. F. Jewett, S. W. Nesbitt University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 11 May 2010 Vertical Velocity and Microphysical.
Summary of NOAA's 2010 Hurricane Field Program (IFEX) Robert Rogers – 2010 HFP Field Program Director 1.
Modeling Generation and Nonlinear Evolution of VLF Waves for Space Applications W.A. Scales Center of Space Science and Engineering Research Virginia Tech.
AMS 28th Conf. on Hurricanes & Tropical Meteorology Orlando, Florida - 29 April 2007 Convection in the Genesis Phase of Ophelia (2005) Wen-Chau Lee*Michael.
Unstable Science Question 2 John Hanesiak CEOS, U. Manitoba Unstable Workshop, Edmonton, AB April 18-19, 2007.
Mesoscale Convective Systems Robert Houze Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Nebraska Kansas Oklahoma Arkansas.
USE OF HS3 DATA TO UNDERSTAND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTFLOW LAYER John Molinari, Kristen Corbosiero, Stephanie Stevenson, and Patrick Duran University at.
The DYMECS project A statistical approach for the evaluation of convective storms in high-resolution models Thorwald Stein, Robin Hogan, John Nicol, Robert.
Convective-scale diagnostics Rob Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division.
The Hurricane Weather Research & Forecasting (HWRF) Prediction System Next generation non-hydrostatic weather research and hurricane prediction system.
LINDSEY NOLAN WILLIAM COLLINS PETA-APPS TEAM MEETING OCTOBER 1, 2009 Stochastic Physics Update: Simulating the Climate Systems Accounting for Key Uncertainties.
On the relationship of in-cloud convective turbulence and total lightning Wiebke Deierling, John Williams, Sarah Al-Momar, Bob Sharman, Matthias Steiner.
10-15% of eye trajectories escape into the eyewall with more frequent escapes during passes with stronger mesovortices along the eyewall edge Escape trajectories.
Chris Birchfield Atmospheric Sciences, Spanish minor.
Electrified Simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005) with Comparisons to LASA Data Steve Guimond 1,2, Jon Reisner 2, Chris Jeffery 2 and Xuan-Min Shao 2 1.
Observed Vorticity Structure in Hurricane Rita (2005) Methodology Improvements Michael M. Bell National Center for Atmospheric Research/ Earth Observing.
The Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Karl (2010): Insights from New Remote Sensing Measurements Collaborators: Anthony Didlake (NPP/GSFC),Gerry Heymsfield.
Remote Sensing and Modeling of Hurricane Intensification Steve Guimond and Jon Reisner Atmospheric Dynamics EES-2 FSU.
Profilers & Surface Gauges NE Corner of Stuart Hwy & McMillans 2835-MHz Precip. Profiler: km 920-MHz Wind Profiler: km 50-MHz Wind Profiler:
Tropical cyclone intensification Roger Smith Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich Collaborators: Michael Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey,
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Size and Intensity to the Radial Distribution of Surface Entropy Flux Wang, Y., and Xu, 2010: Sensitivity of.
Hurricane structure and intensity change : Effects of wind shear and Air-Sea Interaction M é licie Desflots Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science.
Observed Inner-Core Structural Variability in Hurricane Dolly Yu-Fen Huang Hendricks E. A., B. d. Mcnoldy, and Wayne H. Schubert.
Richard Rotunno NCAR *Based on:
Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl (2010): Vorticity and Mass Flux Budgets 1. Motivation: Various studies have emphasized the importance of different.
Fluxes With input from: USCLIVAR Working Group on High-Latitude Fluxes: Ed Andreas, Cecelia Bitz, Dave Carlson, Ivana Cerovecki, Meghan Cronin‏, Will Drennan,
Hurricane Microphysics: Ice vs Water A presenation of papers by Willoughby et al. (1984) and Heymsfield et al. (2005) Derek Ortt April 17, 2007.
Methods for Introducing VHTs in Idealized Models: Retrieving Latent Heat Steve Guimond Florida State University.
Data assimilation, short-term forecast, and forecasting error
High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part II: Water Budget Braun, S. A., 2006: High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998).
Examining Vortex Rossby Wave (VRW) dispersion relations with numerical experiments Ting-Chi Wu MPO673 Vortex Dynamics Project final report 2011/04/28.
Towards parametrized GEC current sources for the CESM model FESD project meeting February 2014 Wiebke Deierling, Andreas Baumgaertner, Tina Kalb.
Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Global-Hawk-based data from tropical cyclones Jason Sippel, Gerry Heymsfield, Lin Tian, and Scott Braun- NASAs GSFC.
The University of Reading Helen Dacre The Eyjafjallajökull eruption: How well were the volcanic ash clouds predicted? Helen Dacre and Alan Grant Robin.
The Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Karl (2010): Insights from New Remote Sensing Measurements Anthony Didlake (NPP/GSFC),Gerry Heymsfield (GSFC), Paul.
Why is it important to HS3 science to estimate convective vertical velocity accurately? Ed Zipser and Jon Zawislak Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences University.
Steve Guimond. Main driver of hurricane genesis and intensity change is latent heat release Main driver of hurricane genesis and intensity change is.
Electrified Simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005) with Comparisons to LASA Data Steve Guimond 1,2, Jon Reisner 2, Chris Jeffery 2 and Xuan-Min Shao 2 1.
High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part II: Water Budget SCOTT A. BRAUN J. Atmos. Sci., 63,
Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Estimates of Hurricane Intensity Eric Uhlhorn (NOAA/AOML)
Electrified Simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005) with Comparisons to LASA Data Steve Guimond 1,2, Jon Reisner 2, Chris Jeffery 2 and Xuan-Min Shao 2 1.
Determining Key Model Parameters of Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane Guillermo(1997) Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Chen Deng-Shun 16 Apr, 2013, NCU Godinez,
Meeting the challenge of obtaining and interpreting observations of deep convection in tropical disturbances and hurricanes by Ed Zipser, Jon Zawislak,
Doppler Lidar Winds & Tropical Cyclones Frank D. Marks AOML/Hurricane Research Division 7 February 2007.
Understanding Convection in Relation to the Non-aerosol Environment ASR Science Team Meeting, Tyson’s Corner, VA, March 17, 2015 Robert Houze With help.
Science Questions What is role of hot towers in TC intensification and RI? Are they a cause of intensification or an effect? How does wind and temperature.
HOT TOWERS AND HURRICANE INTENSIFICATION Steve Guimond Florida State University.
Dynamics and predictability of the rapid intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) Erin Munsell Summer 2015 Group Meeting August 17 th, 2015.
1 Simulations of Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Guillermo with Data assimilation Using Ensemble Kalman Filter and Radar Data Jim Kao (X-2, LANL) Presentation.
Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by Organized Deep Convection Chanh Q. Kieu, and Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University.
INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY CHANGE IN HURRICANE ISABEL (2003) Shuyi S. Chen and Peter J. Kozich RSMAS/University of Miami J. Gamache, P. Dodge,
Impact of Cloud Microphysics on the Development of Trailing Stratiform Precipitation in a Simulated Squall Line: Comparison of One- and Two-Moment Schemes.
Shuyi S. Chen, Robert A. Houze Bradley Smull, David Nolan, Wen-Chau Lee Frank Marks, and Robert Rogers Observational and Modeling Study of Hurricane Rainbands.
Evolution of Hurricane Isabel’s (2003) Vortex Structure and Intensity
End of Semester Groupmeeting
Wallace A. Hogsett and Stacy R. Stewart
Hurricane Vortex X L Converging Spin up Diverging Spin down Ekman
Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 (TCS-08) ONR/NRL Funded Projects
A LATENT HEAT RETRIEVAL IN A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING HURRICANE
Studies of convectively induced turbulence
Comparison of secondary eyewall and principal rainband in Hurricane Rita (2005) Not a modeling study Several theories out there for secondary eyewall formation.
Scott A. Braun, 2002: Mon. Wea. Rev.,130,
Braun, S. A., 2006: High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part II: Water Budget. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, Gamache, J. F., R. A. Houze.
Use of NRL P-3 and ELDORA in TCS-08/T-PARC
Presentation transcript:

HOT TOWERS AND HURRICANE INTENSIFICATION Steve Guimond Florida State University

Motivation TC intensification is a complex, non-linear process governed by physics on a multitude of scales –Synoptic scale –Vortex scale –Convective scale –Hydrometeor scale Improving TC intensification (for wide range of applications including energy) hinges on better understanding of inner-core dynamics In nature, the occurrence of hot towers can often be linked to TC intensification (i.e. Guimond et al. 2009) But not always!

Motivation What are hot towers? How are they distributed? EYE

Latent Heat Updraft Background Vortex MicrophysicsHurricaneIntensificationRoadmap Eddy Heat and Momentum Fluxes Balanced response Adjustment Symmetric heating Asymmetric heating Adjustment Balanced response Adjustment Intensity and Structure Change Nolan and Grasso (2003)

Latent Heat Updraft Background Vortex MicrophysicsHurricaneIntensificationRoadmap Eddy Heat and Momentum Fluxes Balanced response Adjustment Symmetric heating Asymmetric heating Adjustment Balanced response Adjustment Intensity and Structure Change Nolan and Grasso (2003) Lightning Collisions & Charging

My Contribution Characterizing 4-D latent heating in RI Hurricane –Most estimates of latent heat in TCs are crude Satellite –Coarse (space/time) –Not enough information (no winds) –Airborne dual-Doppler retrieval 2 km x 2 km x 1 km x ~30 minutes Understanding inner-core dynamics that is triggered by hot towers –What spatial/temporal scales of heating does the hurricane “feel” ? –Implications for observing systems  lightning LANL network ~ 200 m resolution for VHF –Are small scale details of lightning/heating necessary to capture intensification or are bulk quantities sufficient?

Inner-Core Dynamics Balanced adjustment of hot towers at ~100 m vs. ~ 2 km and feedbacks onto vortex scale Dynamics heavily motivated by observations –Basic-state vortex using Doppler data Made stable to all wavenumber perturbations Made non-divergent by solving Poisson Unbalanced initially –Heating perturbations using EDOP data

Gravity Waves

EDOP Heating Pulse

Goal: Understand fundamental impacts of hot towers (HTs) on hurricane intensification (Convective and Vortex Scales) New version of latent heating retrieval –4-D distribution of heating in RI Hurricane (first time) Non-linear simulations addressing symmetric and asymmetric dynamics that result from HTs –Balanced adjustment of hot towers at ~100 m vs. ~2 km and feedbacks onto vortex scale Proxy for lightning = latent heat ? Help prove the value of lightning data in understanding/predicting dynamics of hurricanes –Physics on fine space/time scales are important –Role of the asymmetric mode Summary and Ongoing Work

Acknowledgments Gerry Heymsfield (EDOP and dropsonde data) Paul Reasor and Matt Eastin (Guillermo edits) Scott Braun (MM5 output) Robert Black (cloud particle processing) David Moulton (help with PDE code) References Roux and Ju (1990) Braun et al. (2006), Braun (2006) Gamache et al. (1993) Heymsfield et al. (1999) Reasor et al. (2008) Black (1990)

Peak Updrafts from EDOP Heymsfield et al. 2009

Inner-Core Dynamics Balanced adjustment of hot towers at ~100 m vs. ~2 km and feedbacks onto vortex scale

Latent Heat Updraft Background Vortex MicrophysicsHurricaneIntensificationRoadmap Eddy Heat and Momentum Fluxes Balanced response Adjustment Symmetric heating Asymmetric heating Adjustment Balanced response Adjustment Intensity and Structure Change Nolan and Grasso (2003) Lightning Collisions & Charging

Latent Heating Retrieval Based on Roux and Ju (1990) –Solve water budget with Doppler radar –Compute latent heat with vertical velocity & lapse rate Improvements to algorithm –Examine assumptions (uncover sensitivities) –Reduced uncertainties with ancillary data –Uncertainty estimates on final product