Spring Bulbs for Schools Investigation results

The investigation... Since October 2005, school scientists across Wales have been keeping weather records and noting when their flowers open, as part of a long-term study looking at the effects of temperature on spring bulbs.

We continue to work in partnership with the Edina Trust who provide funding and support for the project and have extended its reach to schools in England and Scotland! 177 schools took part this year!

Participating schools planted Daffodil and Crocus bulbs in October and took weather readings from November to March. They entered their weekly weather records and the flowering dates and heights of their plants to the National Museum Wales website. The table below shows the rain fall and temperature recorded by Llanharan Primary School November 2015-March 2016.

The long term study… Our climate and seasons are changing. Over the next years (and hopefully longer) we want school scientists to show how climate change is affecting flowering times in spring bulbs. In the short term there is plenty for schools to study. This project is aimed at KS2 and draws on Numeracy, Literacy and Digital skills. The project compliments elements of the national curriculum for Science, Geography, Maths, Art and ICT. Educational resources are available on the project website: bulbs / bulbs /

Huge thanks! Professor Plant would like to thank all of the school scientists that kept and shared their records with us this year! You are all Super Scientists!

Schools to be awarded certificates  Colinsburgh Primary School  Bryn Celyn Primary  Coleg Meirion-Dwyfor  Condorrat Primary School  Corsehill Primary School & Nursery Class  Craigbank Primary School  Holytown Primary School  Howwood Primary School  Inchinnan Primary School  Ladywell Primary School  NPTC Group Newtown Campus  Our Lady & St. Francis Primary School  Pontrhondda Primary School  Rashielea Primary School  Ysgol Rhos Helyg  Rigside Nursery  Rogerstone Primary School  Saint Anthony's Primary School  St. Aidan's Primary School  St. Bridget's Primary School  St. Brigid's Primary School  St. Mark's Primary School  St. Mary's Primary School  St. Paul's Primary School  St. Brigid's Primary School  Swiss Valley C.P. School  Tongwynlais Primary School  Whitelees Primary School  Ysgol Coed y Gof  Ysgol Ffridd y Llyn  Ysgol Iau Hen Golwyn  Ysgol Mair  Ysgol Pencae To receive Super Scientist certificates and pencils.

Schools with special recognition: To be awarded certificates, pencils & sunflower seeds.  Arkleston Primary School  Beckford Primary School  Brisbane Primary School  Carnbroe Primary School  Castlepark Learning Centre  Dasfen Primary School  Glencairn Primary School  Hakin Community Primary  Kirkfieldbank Primary School  Lamlash Primary School  Mossend Primary School  Orchard Meadow Primary  Penygawsi Primary School  Shakespeare Primary School  St Athan Primary School  St David's RC Primary School  St Michael's RC Primary  St. Aidan's Primary School  St. Bernadette's Primary School  St. Columbkille's Primary School  St. Michael's CE Aided Primary  St. Oswalds V A School  Wellpark Children's Centre  Willow Lane Catholic Primary  Woodlands Nursery Centre  Ysgol Esgob Morgan  Ysgol Hiraddug

Highly commended schools: To be awarded certificates, pencils, sunflower seeds and surprise seeds.  Alexander Peden Primary School  Allensbank Primary School  Arkholme C of E Primary School  Asmall Primary School  Bacup Thorn Primary School  Barsail Primary School  Bent Primary School  Betws Primary  Bickerstaffe CE Primary School  Blackwood Primary School  Braidwood Primary School  Breckon Hill Primary School  Broad Haven Primary School  Burnside Primary School  Calderwood Primary School  Castlepark Primary School  Chapelton Primary School  Coedpenmaen Primary School  Coppull Parish CE Primary School  Darran Park primary  Drumpark Primary ASN School  Dykesmains Primary School  East Fulton Primary School  Glebe Primary School  Glengowan Primary School  Grange Primary School  Coedpenmaen Primary School  Hay on Wye Primary School  Henllys Church in Wales Primary  High Mill Primary School  Hudson Road Primary School  John Cross CE Primary School  Kelly Street Children's Centre  Lanark Primary School  Law Primary School  Llangors Primary School  Llanharan Primary School  Loch Primary School  Lynnfield Primary School  Maesycoed Primary School  Mellor Saint Mary CE Primary School  Milton of Balgonie Primary School  Murray Primary School  Nantymoel Primary  Netherburn Primary School  Newmains Primary School  Newport Primary School  Our Lady of Peace Primary School  Pirnmill Primary School  Rougemont Junior School  Silverdale St. John's CE Primary  St. Charles Primary School  St. Cuthberts RC Primary School  St. Joseph's Primary School  St. Paul's CIW Primary School  St. Peter's Catholic Primary School  St. Robert's Catholic Primary  Staining C of E Voluntary Controlled  Stanford-in-the-Vale Primary School  Stonehouse Primary School  Trellech Primary  Underbank Primary School  Ward Jackson Church of England  Wormit Primary School  Ysbyty Ifan  Ysgol Bro Tawe  Ysgol Deganwy  Ysgol Gynradd Gymraeg Llantrisant  Ysgol Gynradd Llandwrog  Ysgol Rhys Prichard  Ysgol San Sior

Runners-up  Ysgol Nant y Coed – Wales  Severn Primary – Wales  Abbey Primary School – Scotland  St. John the Baptist Primary School – Scotland  St. Nicholas' Primary School – England  The Blessed Sacrament Catholic Primary School - England To be awarded certificates, pencils & a gift voucher to be spend on outdoor projects.

Winners 2016 WINNERS 2016 Ysgol Pentrefoelas – Wales Biggar Primary – Scotland Carnforth North Road Primary - England Each will receive certificates, pencils and a class trip full of fun-packed activities!

Summary The following summary looks at key patterns and trends evident in the data recorded by schools over a 10 year period. Weather readings are taken between November and March each year, meaning that records for each year include readings from the November and December of the previous year. For example, when the report talks about results for 2006, it’s referring to data taken November 2005-March  You can download this data to study it yourself at:

UK & Welsh data Welsh schools have been collecting data since English and Scottish schools have been collecting data since We have produced two summary reports. The first looks at data collected from across the UK and compares readings from England, Scotland and Wales. The second looks at data collected from Wales

UK Results Summary

Which country was the warmest / coldest? We can see that England had higher overall temperatures between November and March, with an average of 9 ºC. Wales was second with an average temperature of 7 ºC and Scotland was the coldest of the three with an average of 4 ºC.

Which country had the most / least sunshine? We can see that England had more hours of sunlight between November and March, with an average of 68 hours. Wales comes second with an average of 59 and Scotland is third with an average of 52 hours.

Which country had the most / least rain? We can see from this graph that Wales was the wettest country between November and March, with an average rainfall of 233mm. Scotland was the second wettest with an average rainfall of 223mm and England was the driest with an average of 108mm.

We’ve looked closely at this years averages for temperature, sunlight hours and rainfall and compared results from England, Scotland and Wales. Now lets see how this years findings compare to those of previous years! Do you think the weather has been warmer or colder than last year? Have we had more hours of sunshine or less? Has it been wetter or drier? Lets find out…

This line chart shows average monthly temperatures for the period November-March in the years We can see from the chart that 2016 had the highest average temperatures for the period between November and January than any other year since UK wide records began! From January to March the results are more in keeping with those of previous years.

The bar chart shows the average annual temperatures for the period November-March for the years 2012 to We can see from this chart that 2016 was the second warmest year since UK wide records began, with only 2012 showing a higher average temperature.

This line chart shows average hours of sunlight for the period November-March in the years We can see from this chart that 2016 had the lowest hours of sunlight for the period between November and January than any other year since UK wide records began!

We can also see a sharp increase in sunlight hours between January and February, this is because as well as having the lowest November-January on record, 2016 has the highest February readings on record!

The bar chart shows average annual hours of sunlight for the period November-March for the years We can see from the chart that 2016 had the lowest average hours of sunlight since UK wide records began!

This line chart shows the average rainfall for the period November-March in the years We can see from this chart that 2016 had the highest rainfall for the period November-January than any other year since UK wide records began! 2016 also had the second highest rainfall for the period January-March, with only 2014 showing a higher reading for this period.

The bar chart shows average rainfall for the period November-March for the years 2012 to We can see that 2016 was by far the wettest year of the project, with an average rainfall of 158mm was the only year to come close with an average rainfall of 141mm. 2016

Flowers will open earliest in areas where it is both warm and sunny. Especially during the month of February. We would expect flowers to open earlier in England and Wales than Scotland, as these countries were warmer and had more hours of sunlight. But what effect did the rain have on our flowering dates?

Our results show that flowers opened earlier in Wales this year Plants may have flowered later in Scotland because it had the coldest temperatures and the least sunlight hours. Plants may have flowered earlier in Wales because it had good temperature and sunlight hours and high rainfall. Interestingly, although England was the warmest and sunniest country it had the least amount of rain. This may be why the flowers were later here than in Wales.

Our records show that spring 2016 had the second highest overall temperatures, the highest average rainfall and the least hours of sunshine since UK wide records began in was the only year to have later flowering dates than had the lowest temperatures and the second lowest hours of sunlight. Results table for the UK

Download the results yourself to… Visit:  Make graphs & frequency charts or calculate the mean.  See if the flowers opened late in schools that recorded cold weather.  See how temperature, sunshine and rainfall affect the average flowering dates.  Look for trends between different locations.

Welsh Results Summary

Welsh results table From this we can see that the average flowering dates for 2016 were slightly later than the overall average for the project. We can also see that 2016 had by far the highest average temperatures, the highest rainfall and the lowest sunlight hours than any other year.

This line chart shows average temperatures for the period November-March in the years We can see from the chart that 2016 had by far the highest temperatures for the period between November and December since the project began!

The bar chart shows average temperatures for the period November-March for the years 2006 to We can see from this chart that 2016 had the highest average temperature for this period since the beginning of the project at 6.7 ºC is close on its heels with an average temperature of 6.5 ºC and 2007 was the third warmest year with an average of 6.3 ºC. 2016

This line chart shows average hours of sunlight for the period November-March in the years We can see from this chart that 2016 had the least hours of sunlight for the period between November and January since the project began!

The bar chart shows average hours of sunlight for the period November-March for the years 2006 to We can see from the chart that 2016 had the lowest average hours of sunlight since the project began saw an average of 59 hours of sunlight, it is the only year in which the average hours of sunlight fell below 60 hours and 2014 were the only years in which the average hours of sunlight fell below 70 hours.

This line chart shows the average monthly rainfall for the period November to March in the years 2006 to We can see from this chart that 2016 had the highest rainfall for the period November-January since the project began! It had the second highest rainfall for the period January-March, with only 2014 showing a higher reading for this period.

The bar chart shows average rainfall for the period November-March for the years 2006 to We can see that 2016 was by far the wettest year of the project, with an average rainfall of 233mm. This is the only year to record an average above 200mm, with 2014 being the only year to come close with an average rainfall of 187mm.

We can see from this bar chart that although the weather this year was quite extreme, the average flowering date for 2016 does not stand out from those of previous years. This means that 2016 is close to the overall average flowering date for the project. That said, 2016 was still the fifth latest year for spring flowers.

How does the weather effect flowering times in the daffodil?

On average daffodils flowered later than last year. The bar chart shows that 2016 was the fourth latest year for daffodil flowers. However, there is not much difference between 2016 and most of the other years. This consistency shows that 2016 is close to the overall average flowering date of 11 th March.

Here we have a chart showing the effects of temperature on flowering dates for the daffodil. The height of the blue lines illustrates the temperature and where they are on the graph relates to the average flowering date for that year. The black line running across the graph shows the trend, this indicates the pattern we would expect to see from our results. The trend shows: As temperatures get lower daffodils flower later – but there are some exceptions. Can you spot them?

Q: What years don’t fit the trend? A: 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2014 Possible explanation: Although the temperature was at its highest in 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2014, the flowers did not open early. This is probably because the hours of sunshine remained low until March in those years.

The trend shows: As the hours of sunshine decrease daffodils open later – but there are some exceptions. Can you spot them?

Q: What years don’t fit the trend? A: 2007, 2009, 2011, 2006 & 2010 The average daffodil flowering date was the same in 2011 and 2014, even though 2011 was sunnier. This may be because the temperatures were very low in 2011 and quite high in and 2010 had high levels of sunshine but daffodils flowered later. This is probably because temperatures stayed low until March in both these years.

The average daffodil flowering date was the same in 2011 and 2014, even though 2011 was sunnier. This may be because the temperatures were very low in 2011 and quite high in also stands out on this graph as we would expect the flowers to have developed later considering how low the hours of sunshine were compared to previous years. However, 2016 had the highest average spring temperatures compared to previous years. If the temperature had also been low, then the flowers would have developed even later.

How does the weather effect flowering times in the crocus?

We can see from this bar chart that although the weather this year was quite extreme, the average flowering dates for the Crocus were close to the overall norm. Lets take a closer look at how temperature and sunlight hours may have effected this…

The trend shows: Generally, as temperature gets lower, crocus flowers open later – but there are some exceptions. Can you spot them? What might be the cause?

Q. What years don’t fit the trend? A. 2016, 2012 & 2014 Possible explanation: Although the average spring temperatures in 2016, 2012 & 2014 were high, the flowers opened later than expected. For 2012 this is likely because temperatures were relatively low until March. For 2016 and 2014 it is likely because sunlight hours were low for December and January and sharply increased in February and March.

The trend shows: Generally, when there is less sunshine the crocus flowers open later – but there are some exceptions. Can you spot them?

Q. What years don’t fit the trend? A. 2011, 1010 & 2009 Possible explanation: There was lots of sunshine in these years, but the temperatures were very low in 2011 and Although 2009 had high temperatures and hours of sunshine overall, it also had the lowest hours of sunlight recorded for February. These results show that although averages help to spot trends and analyse data, they can oversimplify the results. Sometimes we need to fill in the gaps by looking at the more complex tables.

Other years that stand out are 2008 and 2007, which both flowered on the 16 th of February even though 2008 had slightly more hours of sunshine. If you look back at the graph showing temperature, you will see that 2007 had slightly higher overall temperatures than and 2016 also have the same flowering date, even though the hours of sunshine were a lot lower in But, if you look at the graph showing temperature you will see that 2016 was slightly warmer overall than 2012.

Finding a trend is quite difficult but some things are clear…  Bulbs rely on both sunshine and warmth to flower.  The seasons are becoming more unpredictable as the planet warms.

Download the results yourself to… Visit:  Make graphs & frequency charts or calculate the mean.  See if the flowers opened late in schools that recorded cold weather  See how temperature, sunshine and rainfall affect the average flowering dates.  Look for trends between different locations.