Anthropogenic Radiative Forcing

Global Mean Surface Air Temperature

Emissions by Sector

Policy options: 2050 emission reduction targets All emissions trajectories lead to carbon neutrality

How much more carbon can we emit & still remain below 2°C threshold? Acceptable exceedance probability < 10%< 33% 2ºC58 GtC478 GtC Measured from year emissions: ~10 GtC Fossil Fuel Emissions Increasing by: 2.5% /year over

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC “… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” 194 Nations are Parties to the convention including Canada and the US The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Annex B (developed) countries agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 5.2% below 1990 levels by Canada’s target was 6% below 1990 levels. The US target was 7% below 1990 levels. 192 Nations are Parties to the Kyoto Protocol including Canada

26% below 1990 levelsGermany’s emissions: 27% below 1990 levels UK emissions: 2009: Canada’s emissions: 17% above 1990 levels 7% above 1990 levelsUS emissions: 4.5% below 1990 levelsJapan’s emissions: Annex B Countries will almost certainly meet collective target of 5.2% below 1990 levels by increase over 2009 Canada: 2.2% USA: 4.1% India: 9.4% China: 10.4% Australia: -9.0% Russia: 5.8% Japan: 6.8% Germany: 4.0% UK: 3.8%

If countries meet their voluntary targets under the Copenhagen Accord 1) 2°C warming is almost certainly broken 2) 3°C has a 50% chance of being broken this century 3) 4°C follows if emissions are not curtailed 114 nations have Taken note of the Copenhagen Accord "We agree that deep cuts in global emissions are required.... so as to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius" The 2009 Copenhagen Accord There is a profound disconnect between policy and science

The Solutions 3) Market Instruments 1) Technological2) Behavioural Three main categories

The Tragedy of the Commons Benefits of adding a cow to the pasture reaped exclusively by the farmer Costs of adding a cow to the pasture distributed amongst all farmers Always to a farmer’s advantage to add another cow to the field Collapse is inevitable

How do you avoid the collapse? 1)Regulate the number of cows a farmer is entitled to put on the land 2)Cap the number of cows allowed on the commons  Auction off the rights to put a cow on the land  Allow farmers to buy and sell permits 3)Put a head tax on each cow

An exciting age of innovation Science, Engineering and Technology will play a central role in the transformation of our energy systems The age of decarbonization of our energy systems

An exciting age of innovation Science, Engineering and Technology will play a central role in the transformation of our energy systems Green Building Electrification of transportation sector

Renewable Energy — Wind An exciting age of innovation Science, Engineering and Technology will play a central role in the transformation of our energy systems

Renewable Energy — Solar An exciting age of innovation Science, Engineering and Technology will play a central role in the transformation of our energy systems Record production on May 25, 2021

Personal Carbon Meter A technological solution aimed at behavioral change

Parallel policy paths for near & long term mitigation Steps taken to reduce their emissions would have immediate effects on global warming and would allow time for the turnover of existing energy infrastructure Gradual reduction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions within a cumulative emissions framework could allow for a smooth transition to renewable and zero- emission energy systems. Socioeconomic, cultural, and behavioral inertia preclude rapid transformation of global energy systems away from dependence on fossil fuel combustion. Shorter-lived greenhouse gases, such as methane, or aerosols, such as black carbon, both of which have much greater global warming potentials than CO2 can then be dealt with separately.

And so what is stopping us?

THE END