Pennsylvania Electric Supply GHG Forecast 1 Victoria Clark Stockholm Environment Institute - US Center 5/29/09
Objectives Data Sources Assumptions Methodology Results Uncertainties Conclusions 2 Outline
Establish GHG emissions from the PA electric supply sector in the Base Year (i.e., 2007) Establish GHG emissions from the PA electric supply sector for the analysis period for mitigation options (i.e., 2008 – 2030) Quantify GHG emissions on both a consumption and production basis Identify key uncertainties and clarify outstanding issues requiring stakeholder input 3 Objectives
Electricity Consumption – Sector-specific sales from Joe Sherrick and Blain Loper PA Load Forecast – PJM Load Forecast Report, Jan PA AEPS requirements – PUC EPO Report, Aug 2007 net generation and primary fuel use for PA power stations from EIA 906/920 federal database Regional power pool characteristics from EIA’s AEO2009 modeling outputs using NEMS Energy Conversion, Oxidation, and GHG emission Factors – US EPA 2003 Global Warming Potentials – IPCC 2 nd Report Data Sources 4
Assumptions - PA Electricity Demand (GWh) Key Assumptions Growth rate (%/yr) Method: sector-specific sales from extrapolated based on trend Includes impact from all new DSM and DG resources from RPS 145,392191, % 5
Assumptions - AEPS Total Requirements Alternative energy requirements (% of sales) Tier 1 (includes solar PV and wood products)1.5%8.0% Tier 24.2%10.0% Total5.7%18.0% 6
Assumptions - AEPS Breakdown 7
Assumptions – Planned capacity additions and retirements (MW) 8
Assumptions – Net generation by utilities/non-utilities subject to Act 129 (GWh) 9
Assumptions – Project generation by utilities/non-utilities 10
Heat Rates 11 Power plant heat rate (Btu/kWh) Growth Rate (%/yr) Coal9,9799, % Nuclear10, % Natural Gas7,7437, % Oil11,30511, % Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)9, % Biomass10, % Landfill Gas (LFG)15, % Wind10, % Hydroelectric10, % Transmission and Distribution (T&D) Losses (%)6.62%6.60%-0.02% Fuel quality Coal & Oil: For assume equal to estimated 2007 shares Plant parasitic load On-site Losses assumed to be equal to the MAAC region for (based on EIA’s AEO2008),
In-state sales projection incorporates savings from DSM and DG Gross Generation –net generation adjusted upward to account for on-site parasitic load Electricity Exports – difference between total PA generation and PA generation needed to meet in-state demand Primary Energy Use – product of annual gross generation and average annual heat rate by plant type CO 2 e emissions – product of primary energy (mmbtu), emission factor (tGHG/mmbtu) and GWP (dimensionless) CO 2 e emissions (exports) – used PA system average 12
Fuel Gross Generation (GWh) Fuel use (Trillion Btu)Heat rate (Btu/KWh) Emissions (MMtCO 2 e) Coal117,2771,1709, Natural Gas15, , Other Gases1036, Petroleum1, , Nuclear77, , Hydroelectric2, , Geothermal0010, Solar/PV0010, Wind473510, MSW1,607169, Landfill gas193315, Biomass0010, Other wastes0010, Pumped storage , Exports59, Total215,6262,
14 Results – Gross Generation from PA Power Stations (215,626 GWh), 2007
15 Results – CO2e emission from PA Power Stations ( MMTCO2e), 2007
Growth rate (%/yr) To meet PA electricity demand 155,701204, % Exports to neighboring region 59,92480, % Total 215,626284, % 16 Results – Gross generation from PA Power Stations (GWh),
17 Results – Breakdown in gross generation from PA Power Stations (GWh),
18 Results – CO2e emissions from PA Power Stations (GWh), Growth rate (%/yr) To meet PA electricity demand % Exports to neighboring region % Total %
PA DEPCCS Difference Electricity Production [GWh] 274,795268, % Electricity Consumption [GWh] 186,860191,7382.6% Electricity Production [MMTCO2e) % 19 Forecasted GHG emissions in 2025 are about 25% less than the PA DEP estimate Difference is likely due to sales forecast and the role of renewable energy, DSM and DG Results – Comparison to DEP GHG forecast, 2025
EIA Data – All Power stations included, not just those that are required to comply with Act 129 In-State Production and Exports Statewide fuel mix, emission factors, conversion factors (heat input to electricity output) Resource Shares for penetration of renewable energy, DSM, and distributed generation (DG) 20
Preliminary analysis concludes GHG emissions of 126 MMtCO 2 e for total PA production- based generation in 2030 Secondary analysis will be based on Subcommittee input ◦ Specific Generation Data from Act-129 Power Stations ◦ AEPS breakdown by fuel type ◦ Statewide fuel mix, emission factors, conversion factors specific to PA power generators ◦ Assumptions about capacity additions and retirements