Safe Speed presents... Driver quality - The essential foundation of all road safety

2 Why were British roads the safest in the world? What’s wrong with driving in India? Or Belgium? There are, of course, various reasons. But British drivers have been on average the best in the world. It’s about standards of driving, or DRIVER QUALITY

3 Modern UK road safety trends Much lower reductions in risk vales than expected; deaths not falling; HES rising ‘Engineering’ improvement continue at a pace (vehicles, roads, medical, post- crash rescue) Traffic growth is at an all-time low Pedestrian activity continues to decline Something is going wrong

4 Deadly loss of trend

5 Driver quality is in sharp decline Anecdotes abound Personal experience is clear Explains the ‘loss of trend’ I’m going to explain what’s gone wrong, why it’s gone wrong, how it’s gone wrong and what we need to do about it.

6 Shifting the balance The loss of responsibility is being perilously ignored as regulation increases.

7 Road risk values... Are unequal from country to country Are unequal between men and women Are unequal across the population Are unequal from young to old Are unequal from year to year Changes are unequal from country to country All because driver quality is NOT constant - it’s variable

8 Driver quality......Has been WRONGLY regarded as ‘unreachable’ or ‘too difficult’...Is in sharp decline …MUST be brought centre-stage in road safety …lacks a good working definition Neglect of driver quality is costing British lives.

9 What happens if a driver closes his eyes? Within about 20 seconds he will crash. Why? Because he stops managing risk. Clearly it’s extremely important to safety that drivers keep their eyes open. Road safety utterly depends on drivers managing risk. It underpins everything else. It comes with experience.

10 Safety record One fatality per 100 million miles 1 in 1,000 crashes ends in a fatality Crash risk is not spread evenly across the population These figures include the reckless, the worst drivers and the least experienced. The safety record is amazing. It’s a great strength that we must fully understand and build upon.

11 Crash risk distribution

12 Safe Speed estimates 80% of road dangers come from the worst 20% of drivers > 70% will never experience an injury crash in a lifetime The median quality driver has less than 20% of the average crash risk The median quality driver poses a fatality risk of <1 in 500 million miles (800mkm) That’s amazing.

13 Defining driver quality The ability of a driver to consistently stay out of trouble by managing road risks effectively. The inverse of crash risk is also a useful definition. A better quality driver always has a lower crash risk. In fact if a better driver didn’t have a lower crash risk then our definition of ‘better driver’ would be inadequate.

14 The learning curve

15 The learning curve Vulnerable to influence It would be reckless to assume that the national average learning curve is always going to be the same - but that’s what the road safety industry is doing. Driver quality comes with experience. In many ways and in many views driver quality and experience are the same

16 Crash contributory factors 9% involve ‘breaking a rule’ 90% involve a road user error 9% involve environment 90% of crash contributory factors are road user quality issues. Most of the ‘breaking a rule’ crash contributory factors are also a road user error.

17 Policy effects Driver quality is not a ‘constant’ The process of skills acquisition depends upon beliefs and attitudes Beliefs and attitudes depend on culture Culture is heavily influenced by policy Therefore policy changes the rate and extent of skills acquisition and thus average driver quality

18 How policy influences crash rates... Good safety culture is key - exactly as it is in industrial health and safety

19 Is modern policy improving driver quality? No. Decidedly no. ‘Rules’ targets are far too prominent ‘Skills’ targets are largely forgotten ‘Beliefs’ targets are ignored ‘Culture’ targets aren’t even considered ‘Responsibility’ targets are lost in a sea of blameworthiness All the messages from policy are wrong

20 Key driver skills Concentration; sufficient vigilance Distraction management Effective observation; hazard perception Risk recognition and assessment; a sense of danger Attitudes to risk Sense of responsibility Safe drivers are skilled risk managers These key skills are largely subconscious

21 Threats to Driver Quality Vulnerable to false beliefs Vulnerable to ‘lack of interest’ Vulnerable to poor priorities Vulnerable to lack of understanding Vulnerable to inaccurate information Vulnerable to ‘low targets’ But most of all: vulnerable to bad policy

22 Good drivers are vulnerable ‘Forced’ alterations to the behaviour of low crash risk drivers are likely to increase their crash risk. That’s because their learned behaviour was already reasonably optimal. Policies intended to target bad driving frequently alter the behaviour of good drivers too.

23 Consequences Policy makers must consider the effect of their policies on average driver quality Improving average driver quality is the fundamental objective of driver-focused road safety policy Policies that encourage ‘rules compliance’ in isolation may have strong negative impacts on average driver quality

24 The context In the last 15 years the poor UK road safety performance has mainly been due to declining driver quality under the influence of poor road safety policy. Driver quality changes will dominate the progression of UK road safety in the next 20 years Never again must driver quality be ignored or taken for granted. For all our sakes.

25 Further information: The Safe Speed road safety campaign Thanks for listening

26 Driver quality Good driver Good concentration Good observation Good risk recognition Good risk response Low risk acceptance Manages risk to a low level at all times Bad driver Poor concentration Poor observation Poor risk recognition Poor risk response High risk acceptance Fails to manage risk adequately

27 The accident triangle 3,000 fatal 30,000 serious 300,000 injury 3,000,000 damage only 30,000,000 near misses? Road safety has much to learn from industrial health and safety Human factors are key

28 Road safety... Is massively dependent on routine ‘not crashing’ behaviours Looking at crashes for policy ideas risks gross neglect of fundamental strengths If you shut your eyes for just 20 seconds while driving… Driver quality is ‘taken for granted’ but it is extremely perilous to do so.

29 Managing risk Risk = speed*surprise / space All drivers use this model continuously and subconsciously in real time Quality of risk management is a variable Risk acceptance thresholds are variable Change one parameter and we should expect risk compensation (that’s why speed enforcement hasn’t worked)

30 ‘Bad drivers’ are key Policies that concentrate on the worst 20% of drivers are likely to have the biggest effects. Bad driving comes in many forms and can be recognised from crash records and by skilled roadside observation. Attempting to recognise bad drivers by rules violations is inadequate at best, and may represent a dangerous distraction for the rest of us.