Sweden’s Energy Imports – Risks and Responses Fores – 29 April 2015 Samuel Ciszuk Senior Advisor Energy Security of Supply Unit Swedish Energy Agency

Market’s size and composition conditions the crisis management Gas: European to global Crude and fuels: Global Heating: Local to national Power: Nordic to European 2

Connections in the Nordic Region Nordics well connected Connection NO- UK expected around 2019

Net trade balances vary over time

Trade flows in the past three years Sweden likely to remain stable net exporter until nuclear shut-down gains momentum

Europe’s crude imports from Russia – Slightly falling trend 6 Sweden sources ~35-42% of crude imports from Russia OECD Europe sources ~36-38% of crude imports from Russia Russia exports ~71% of its crude to OECD Europe Declining trend

Europe’s imports of products from Russia – Slightly increasing trend 7 Russia incentivises growing product exports Netherlands – exemplifies European “liquidity”

Crude Infrastructure Bosphorus bottleneck 850 kbpd mmbpd through Baltic Druzhba, throughput rarely above 1.1 mmbpd

Sweden’s crude and products crisis management structure Sweden lives up to IEA’s 90 days of stock target (90 days of consuption) through industry held stocks model: –Stocks always well matched to demand –Rapid stocks-to-market response time Refining crisis could spread to Sweden –Weak European refining, strong growth in Russia, MENA (Gulf), South Asia and refining revival in US –Growing Russian product exports upends Sweden’s previous logistical (storage etc.) advantage between RU-ARA-North Sea –Demise of refining threat to both stockholding model and fuel quality leadership Overall crude/products supply risks shared with global market

Europe’s gas transmission network 10

The Swedish Gas Network – A Danish Appendix Sweden has a crisis management system based on the EU gas security of supply directive The system’s focus is the supply of protected customers and to protect the transmission network A order of priority for manual disconnection is developed in the case of shortages/disruption The SEA is the competent authority, issuing, or rescinding crisis level announcements Reliance on Denmark as net-exporter, but rising interconnectivity DK-DE “Europeanises” 11

Thank you Samuel Ciszuk Senior Advisor Energy Security of Supply Unit Swedish Energy Agency