A presentation developed by the National Academy of Sciences based on its report Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2009): National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

The Climate is Changing Temperatures are rising Sea levels are rising The ocean is acidifying Climate change is reflected in water cycle changes and in extreme weather Temperature rise, indicated by color (red=higher rate of increase). Earth’s surface temperature has risen ~1.3˚ F since Image courtesy of the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere & Ocean, University of Washington. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Ecological Impacts Living things are intimately connected to their physical surroundings. Ecosystems are affected by changes in: –temperature –rainfall/moisture –pH – salinity (saltiness) – activities & distribution of other species – …many other factors National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Ecological Impacts As a result of climate change, species and ecosystems are experiencing changes in: –ranges –timing of biological activity –growth rates –relative abundance of species – cycling of water and nutrients – the risk of disturbance from fire, insects, and invasive species National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Ecological Impacts As a result of climate change, species and ecosystems are experiencing changes in: –ranges –timing of biological activity –growth rates –relative abundance of species – cycling of water and nutrients – the risk of disturbance from fire, insects, and invasive species National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Range Shifts Species are relocating to areas with more tolerable climate conditions. Range shifts particularly threaten species that: –cannot move fast enough –depend on conditions that are becoming more rare (like sea ice) Plant hardiness zone maps, 1990 and Most zones shifted northward in this period. Map courtesy of the National Arbor Day Foundation. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Ecological Impacts As a result of climate change, species and ecosystems are experiencing changes in: –ranges –timing of biological activity –growth rates –relative abundance of species – cycling of water and nutrients – the risk of disturbance from fire, insects, and invasive species National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Timing of Biological Activity Some seasonal biological activities are happening days earlier than several decades ago: –Trees blooming earlier –Migrating birds arriving earlier –Butterflies emerging earlier Changes in timing differ from species to species, so ecological interactions are disrupted. European pied flycatcher chicks are now born later than the caterpillars they eat. Images used under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Global Changes, Local Impacts Although climate change is global, the ecological impacts are often local. What’s happening in your backyard? National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Impacts in Western Mountains Wildfire, Drought, and Insects: Complex Interactions Climate change increases the risk of fire in areas where decades of total fire suppression have resulted in buildup of dead fuels. Wildfire increasing in frequency, size, season length: –Longer, more intense summer droughts stressing trees –Stressed trees are more susceptible to attacking beetles, which leave standing dead fuels in their wake A wildfire in Bitterroot National Forest, Montana. Image courtesy of John McColgan, USDA Forest Service. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Impacts in Western Mountains Effects on the American Pika Climbing to higher elevations in response to warming Many populations now isolated on “mountaintop islands Pika images courtesy of J. R. Douglass, Yellowstone National Park; Aerial image courtesy NASA. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Impacts in Western Mountains Changes in Trout Habitat Earlier springs, warmer summers reducing stream flows as mountain snow melts off earlier in the season Some streams reaching temperatures lethal to trout (>78˚F) Image courtesy USGS. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Impacts on the Pacific Coastline Shifting Ranges of Checkerspot Butterflies Edith’s checkerspot: range has shifted northward and to higher elevations over 40+ years Quino checkerspot: first endangered species for which climate change is officially listed as a threat and as a factor in the plan for its recovery Image courtesy of Dr. Gordon Pratt, National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Impacts on the Pacific Coastline California Wine Industry: Unwelcome Changes? Climate change affects managed ecosystems like vineyards and farms just as it affects natural ecosystems Future warming unlikely to help wine growers in California’s premium wine regions: some areas projected to become “marginal” by 2100 National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Impacts on the Pacific Coastline Changes in the Water Shift in species ranges: many species moving northward Mysterious dead zones along Washington and Oregon coastline: cause undetermined but potential links to climate change Scientists retrieve a water sample for research on a recurring “dead zone” off the coasts of Washington and Oregon. Image courtesy of Oregon State University. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

The Role of Human Beings Causes of Climate Change It is very likely that most of the climate change in the current era is the result of human activities. –Human activities have increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. –These gases trap heat and cause the Earth to warm. Figure adapted from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group 1 Contribution to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Figure SPM.5. Cambridge University Press. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

The Role of Human Beings Rate of Climate Change Climate change in the current era is expected to be extremely rapid compared to transitions in and out of past ice ages. Ecosystems are more vulnerable to changes that happen rapidly. A scientist holding an ice core—a sample taken from polar ice caps or mountain glaciers. Ice cores reveal clues about climate changes in Earth’s past. Image courtesy USGS National Ice Core Laboratory. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

The Role of Human Beings Compounding Factors Human activities have many other effects on ecosystems. These effects compound the effects of climate change, making it more difficult for ecosystems to adapt. –Pollution –Habitat fragmentation –Invasive species – Overfishing – Manipulation of water sources – …and much more National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

The Role of Human Beings Improving the Outlook Changes in activities at the personal, community, and national levels can affect the rate of future climate change and species’ abilities to adapt. Some of the areas where changes in human activities could help species adapt include: –Approaches to agriculture –Water management practices –Energy sources and use –Transportation –Pollution remediation –Biological conservation –…and much more National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

The climate challenge is large and complex. But it is very likely that many people, working from many angles, can help address climate change and its ecological consequences. National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council

Acknowledgments This presentation was developed by the National Academy of Sciences based on its report, Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2009). The report, its companion booklet, and this presentation were produced with support from the United States Geological Survey. Ecological Impacts of Climate Change was authored by the following National Research Council committee: National Research Council Staff ANN REID, Study Director FRANCES E. SHARPLES, Director, Board on Life Sciences ANNE FRANCES JOHNSON, Communications Officer AMANDA CLINE, Senior Program Assistant CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Chair, Carnegie Institution for Science DONALD F. BOESCH, U. of Maryland Center for Environmental Science F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN III, University of Alaska PETER H. GLEICK, Pacific Institute ANTHONY C. JANETOS, University of Maryland JANE LUBCHENCO, Oregon State University JONATHAN T. OVERPECK, University of Arizona CAMILLE PARMESAN, University of Texas TERRY L. ROOT, Stanford University STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Stanford University Unless otherwise noted, all images in this presentation are © JupiterImages, These images were purchased for use in this presentation and may not be reproduced without permission from the owner. For more information, visit National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council