Steve Handschuh Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association National Automotive Service Task Force General Meeting Las Vegas Nevada November 03, 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

Steve Handschuh Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association National Automotive Service Task Force General Meeting Las Vegas Nevada November 03, 2009

© 2009 Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association

Topics to be Addressed Key Issues for the 2009/2010 U.S. Automotive Aftermarket Aftermarket Trends and Measures

Key Factors Driving the 2009/2010 US Automotive Aftermarket Dealership Closings New Vehicle Sales/Age Profile Miles Driven Unemployment Lack of Credit Recession - Economic Outlook

Dealer Closings As many as 3,000 by end of 2010 Independent Aftermarket (IAM) Impact: Roughly $23 billion of wholesale parts into IAM through OE dealers; $2-2.5 billion available due to closings As much as $5 billion in service work available to the IAM 5

Source: Wards Automotive, * - Year to Date SAAR New Light Vehicle Sales by Year

Aftermarket Sweet Spot Vehicles From 5 to 10 Years Old

DIFM Repair/Maintenance Cost by Vehicle Age Source: IMR Inc. Continuing Consumer Auto Maintenance Tracking Study

U.S. Automotive Aftermarket by Vehicle Age Source: Maintenance Data - IMR Inc. and Registration Data - R.L. Polk

Average Age of Light Vehicles in Use (Years) Source: Registration Data © R.L. Polk & Company

U.S. Light Vehicles in Use Source: R.L. Polk & Co. 242,081,704 light vehicles in use in 2008

Vehicle Miles of Travel Source: US DOT Every 1% decline in miles driven reduces aftermarket volume by approximately $500 million

U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor

Economic Outlook Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Aftermarket Growth % 2009F+1.8% 2010F+3.1% 2011F +3.3% 2012F +4.0% 2013F +5.0% 15

Size of the U.S. Automotive Aftermarket Source: AASA Automotive Aftermarket Status Report *= AASA Forecast

U.S. Automotive Aftermarket Five Year Outlook Source: AASA Automotive Aftermarket Status Report

Primary Components of the U.S. Automotive Aftermarket 2007 Source: AASA Automotive Aftermarket Status Report

Primary Channels of the U.S. Automotive Aftermarket 2007 Source: AASA Automotive Aftermarket Status Report and NADA Data

National Average Retail Price - One Gallon of Regular Gasoline Source: Energy Information Administration Every one penny change in prices at the pump moves $1 Billion into or out of vehicle owners’ pockets.

Average Gasoline Expenditures Percent of Median Household Income Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: BLS, Company filings, BB&T Capital Markets Indexed Aftermarket Comparable SSS vs. Gas Prices

Average Number of Repair Orders Each Month Source: IMR Inc.

Merger & Acquisition Activity Source – Capstone Financial Group, Data through September

Aftermarket M&A Deals (Strategic vs. Financial) Source – Capstone Financial Group, Data through September

Aftermarket M&A by type of business Source – Capstone Financial Group, Data through September

Issues Impacting Vehicle Repair Economy, unemployment=decrease in spending Improved vehicle reliability and longer service intervals Owners relying on vehicle service reminders rather than scheduled maintenance Service model: break-down repairs vs. preventive maintenance Increasing vehicle complexity requiring increased investments in tools, information and training Competent and qualified technicians Access to diagnostic and repair information Remote vehicle diagnostics Regulatory (environment, business) compliance Increased focus on ROI

Thank You!