Population Ecology and Conservation Population Ecology and Conservation A Conceptual Framework 2.1 UF-2015

What Is It That Wildlife Scientists Do? Science Science –Understand ecological systems –Learn stuff Management/Conservation Management/Conservation –Apply decision-theoretic approaches –Make smart decisions

Methods Required in Conduct of Science and Management Modeling Modeling –Project consequences of hypotheses (make predictions) Estimation/Monitoring Estimation/Monitoring –Estimate system state and model parameters Decision theory and dynamic optimization Decision theory and dynamic optimization –Make optimal state-specific decisions in face of uncertainty

Change in Animal Abundance: BIDE Model N t+1 = N t + B t + I t - D t - E t N t = abundance at time t B t = new recruits (births) entering pop between t and t+1 and present at t+1 I t = immigrants entering pop between t and t+1 and present at t+1 D t = deaths between t and t+1 E t = emigrants between t and t+1

Change in Animal Abundance: Express in Terms of Rates N t+1 = N t (S t + F t ) N t+1 /N t = λ t = S t + F t N t = abundance at time t λ t = rate of population change S t = survival rate, P[survive to t+1| alive at t] F t = fecundity rate, new animals at t+1 per animal at t

Focus on Vital Rates: Survival, Fecundity, Movement Population ecology Population ecology –All changes in abundance come about through the action of these rate parameters Population conservation/management Population conservation/management –Management actions that influence abundance must do so via 1 or more of these parameters Evolutionary ecology Evolutionary ecology –Determinants of fitness: survival and fecundity –Fitness defined as genotypic λ

State Variables for Use in Animal Populations and Communities Population – single species Population – single species –State variable: abundance –Vital rates: P(survival, reproduction, movement) Community – multiple species Community – multiple species –State variable: Species richness –Vital rates: rates of extinction and colonization Patch – single species Patch – single species –State variable: Proportion patches occupied –Vital rates: P(patch extinction/colonization)