WFP Ukraine Market Update 9. -Macroeconomic overview -Food Access and other social indicators (utilities, financial sector, poverty etc.) -Food Availability.

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Presentation transcript:

WFP Ukraine Market Update 9

-Macroeconomic overview -Food Access and other social indicators (utilities, financial sector, poverty etc.) -Food Availability in NGCA -Food prices and market trends in the Donbas Content

Macroeconomic overview The Ukrainian economy is still struggling; however, some early signs of recovery were seen in the last two quarters of In February 2016, for the first time in 3 years, the y/y industrial production increased by 7.6% breaking a long trend of decline.

Inflation In March, inflation slowed to 20.9% y/y. Since the beginning of the year prices increased by only 1.5%, which is lowest value for this quarter in the last two years.

In February 2016, industrial production in Donetsk oblast increased by 26.9% and in Luhansk oblast by 149% compare to February The highest unemployment rates in Ukraine can be observed in the Donetsk and Luhansk GCA oblasts at the levels 13.6% and 15.4% respectively. Economic situation in Donetsk and Luhansk oblast (GCA)

Prices in NGCA are lower compared to those in National Ukrainian for all the services. For example, the cheapest tariff for electricity in GCA is around twice the price and for gas 3 to 5 times higher. This data suggests that subsidized utility tariffs in NGCA allow households to spend more on food. Utilities prices in NGCA Utilities

Price monitoring points

Staples are widely available for almost all the year. Beef is sparsely available during all periods. There is limited availability of pork and pork fat on the market. No significant differences in the food availability in Donetsk and Luhansk NGCA were identified. Trends Food availability in NGCA Commodity Calendar for Luhansk NGCA MarketCalendar for Donetsk NGCA Market JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar Rice Wheat bread Rye bread Wheat flour Pasta Buckwheat Potato Beef Pork Poultry Boil. sausages Eggs Butter Sunflower oil Pork fat Milk Sour cream Curd Cabbage Carrot Beetroot Onion Sugar Availability Key Widely Available (available in % of all monitoring shops) Not Widely Available (available in % of all monitoring shops) Sparsely Available (available in % of all monitoring shops) Not available (0-10%)

The central reason for food deflation can be explained by supply factors, which led to lower prices for raw food items. This was mainly caused by reduced export opportunities for domestic producers. Graph 4: Ukraine (National) value of food basket, UAH Food basket trends

Graph 6: Cost of Food Basket in NGCA

Price differences in GCA and NGCA (March 2016) CommodityGCANGCA Comparison (NGCA compared to GCA) Rice % Wheat bread10878% Rye bread10989% Wheat flour8782% Pasta10 100% Buckwheat grits302791% Potato67118% Beef % Pork % Poultry % Boiled sausages % Eggs % Pork fat % Butter % Sunflower oil % Milk % Sour cream % Curd % Cabbage10884% Carrot11983% Beetroot9890% Onion8897% Sugar % Food Basket (full) %

World Food Programme