Presented by Cognitive Bias Exploring what goes on between your ears Dan Neumann Agile and Beyond 2016

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Dan Neumann If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me. agilethought.com slideshare.net/DanRNeumann neumanagementllc.com/blog/

Imagine…

Anchoring Over-Weight the First Information Make Decisions while Anchored Especially a problem under pressure Planning Poker Silent Writing Start with “Why” Sleep on it

Two Categories 6 Ego Bias Information Bias

Imagine…

Optimism Bias Generally believe ourselves to be less prone to certain events. 8

Optimism Bias and Selective Updating Representative of Group 1: Learns the actual chance is 50% 9 “ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality” Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011 Representative of Group 2: Learns the actual chance is 10% Believes chance of cancer is 30% New Belief: 33% New Belief: 22%

10 “ How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality” Tali Sharot, Christoph W Korn & Raymond J Dolan. NATURE NEUROSCIENCE, November 2011 It’s Biological

Combat: Make The Processing More Complex “Beyond Budgeting” Estimate Budget Expected outcome 11

Debiasing: Multiple Explanation 1.“Consider the Opposite” 2.Consider any Alternative 3.Alternative Plausibility 12

Related to Planning Fallacy Planning Fallacy: We underestimate future tasks. Address Planning Fallacy with Reference Class Forecasting

Availability Bias We judge how important (or how likely) something is by how easy it is to think of an example In particular, vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples stick. 14

Combating Availability Bias Research Beware the most recent/memorable Personas Experiments 15

Two Categories 16 Ego Bias Information Bias Anchoring Optimism Availability

Illusory Superiority The “Above Average” Bias 17 NOTE: Don’t call it Lake Wobegon Effect: Image:

Attribution Bias 18 MyYour Success Failure *Not true of all cultures Innate AbilitiesCircumstances Bad LuckIncompetence

Dunning-Kruger Effect 19 UnskilledHighly Skilled Self- Assessment Side-Effect OverestimatedUnderestimated Overconfidence Frustration with Others

Moderating Ego Bias Create Safety “Regardless of what we discover, we understand and truly believe that everyone did the best job they could, given what they knew at the time, their skills and abilities, the resources available, and the situation at hand.” --Norm Kerth Project Retrospectives: A Handbook for Team Review

Moderating Ego Bias Model Getting Feedback Evaluate the work, not the individual Bring Data Broaden your perspective

In-Group/Out-Group Bias Positive characters ascribed to their own group Negative characteristics ascribed to other groups Especially when competing for resources! 22 Mitigation Strategies: Get a broader definition of “my group” Address the resource scarcity

Choice-Supportive Bias Highlight positive attributes of our selection Downplay positive attributes of alternatives 23 Mitigation Strategies: Regular Reviews Engage with outsiders

Confirmation Bias (a.k.a.,“Myside Bias”) Seek information that supports our beliefs or hypotheses Co-opt Ambiguity 24 Mitigation Strategies: Additional Opinions Seek to disprove “Yes, and…”

Social Desirability Bias Over-report “good” behavior Underreport “bad” 25

Hawthorne Effect People tend to behave differently when they are being observed. 26 Use it for Advantage: Video during meetings Sprint Reviews

Agony by wallsdontliewallsdontlie Poison and Vomit by Thomas HawkThomas Hawk

What about the bias against creativity? Beware Uncertainty! Promotes negative attitudes toward creativity Makes creativity hard to recognize 95% made explicit statements about supporting Creativity Experiment showed high correlation to words like “Vomit” “Poison” and “Agony” 30 Mueller, Jennifer S.; Melwani, Shimul; and Goncalo, Jack A., "The Bias Against Creativity: Why People Desire But Reject Creative Ideas" (2011). Articles & Chapters. Paper

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We discussed: Anchoring Optimism Bias Availability Bias Illusory Superiority Attribution Bias Dunning-Kruger Effect In-Group/Out-Group Choice-Supportive Confirmation Social Desirability Hawthorne Effect Bias Against Creativity 32

Summary of Strategies Show your cards all at once: Planning Poker Silent Writing Start with “Why” Sleep on it Make the issue more complex (e.g., Beyond Budgeting) Multiple Explanation Reference Class Forecasting Research Experiments Personas Create Safety Model Getting Feedback Bring Data Evaluate the work, not the individual Broaden your perspective Broaden the definition of “My Group" Address the sense of resource scarcity Review your choices. Include outsiders Create additional options Yes, And Take advantage of Hawthorne Effect Reduce Uncertainty to allow for Creativity

Dan Neumann If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me. agilethought.com slideshare.net/DanRNeumann neumanagementllc.com/blog/

Blind Spot Bias Survey of 600 Americans, 85% thought they were less biased than the average American When one sees the impact of biases on the judgment of others, but fail to see the impact of biases on one’s own judgment 35

Dan Neumann If you have questions or would like more information, feel free to contact me. agilethought.com slideshare.net/DanRNeumann neumanagementllc.com/blog/