COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO 2015 P ROTOTYPE S OFTWARE F OR D ETERMINATION O F L ANDSLIDE S TATISTICS Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogelogica, IRPI Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, CNR Mauro Rossi

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO L ANDSLIDE H AZARD Landslide hazard is the probability of occurrence in a specified period and within a given area of a potentially damaging landslide of a given magnitude. The definition incorporates the concepts of location (where?), time (when, or how frequently?) and magnitude (how large?). (Guzzetti et al. 1999, 2005)

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO L ANDSLIDE H AZARD (Guzzetti et al. 1999, 2005) H L = P (M L ) × P (T L ) × P (S L ) Considering the three probability as independent: Probability of landslide size (M L ), a proxy for magnitude Probability of temporal (T L ) occurrence of landslides Probability of spatial (S L ) occurrence of landslides (landslide susceptibility)

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO SW L ANDSLIDE S TATISTICS Prototype software for determination of landslide statistics from inventory maps  Investigation on the variations of the statistics of populations of landslides in different physiographical, climatic and geographical settings, through the exploitation of landslide inventory maps.  Landslide size (area or volume) extracted from inventories and used to establish empirical density distributions.

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO SW L ANDSLIDE S TATISTICS Medium and large areas: power-law (‘fat’ or heavy tail) Medium and large areas: power-law (‘fat’ or heavy tail) Landslide Inventory Gives underlying frequency- area distribution

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO L ANDSLIDE S IZE D ISTRIBUTIONS

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO 2015 Landslide area, A L (m 2 ) Probability density, p(A L ) SW L ANDSLIDE S TATISTICS PDF: P(a L )CDF: P(A L ≤a L ) CDF=1CDF=0.5

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO S OFTWARE S PECIFICATION For the three probability densities the software estimates:  The values of the distribution parameters  The uncertainty of the parameters The software is coded in R (Open Source software environment for statistical computing and graphics The software has a twofold interface with different functionalities

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO S OFTWARE I NTERFACES The software can be used exploiting:  an R script interface (BATCH) requiring a local execution  a Web Processing Service (WPS) accessible using a GIS client BATCH WPS

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO SW L OGICAL S CHEMA The software has three main components devoted to the:  data input preparation (I)  probability density estimation (II)  output generation (III)

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO I NPUT D ATA P REPARATION WPS link accessible at Download of files from

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO P ROBABILITY D ENSITY E STIMATION

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO O UTPUT P REPARATION

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO In the basic version (WPS) for each parameter the tool gives  an estimate of its value: “Estimate”  the standard error “Std. Err.”  the estimated error variance “t_value”  the correlations among the parameters “Pr(>|t|)” B ASIC SW O UTPUT

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO A DVANCED SW O UTPUT (1/3) The advanced version (BATCH) of the SW integrates the following additional features:  the bootstrapped parameter uncertainty estimation, for the statistical comparison of the estimated probability distributions;  the bootstrapped Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (KS test) to serve as a “goodness of fit” test providing a measure of the suitability of the different distribution types,  a different version of the cumulative density function calculation,  an improved use of shapefiles, allowing the automatic landslide size calculation,  an improved output version, allowing the calculation of the probability density.

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO A DVANCED SW O UTPUT (2/3) PERCENTILEALPHABETATROLL 1% % % % % % % For each distribution type (DP, DPS, IG) estimated with different statistical approaches (HDE, KDE, MLE) the advanced version provides uncertainty plots and tables.

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO A DVANCED SW O UTPUT (3/3) DISTRIBUTION BOOTSTRAP SAMPLES KS_DKS_PVALUEKS_PVALUE_BOOT HDE_DPS HDE_DP HDE_IG KDE_DPS KDE_DP KDE_IG MLE_DPS MLE_DP MLE_IG The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test provides a measure of the suitability of the different distribution types. Lowest D and highest p_values identify the most appropriate distribution

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO T EST S ITES Umbria test site  Umbria region  Collazzone area  Ivancich (Assisi)

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO A VAILABLE DATA GEOLOGICAL AND LITHOLOGICAL MAPS, realized by visual interpretation of stereo aerial photographs and field survey acitvity 1:10,000 scale (available in shapefile format). MULTI-TEMPORAL LANDSLIDE INVENTORY MAP realized by interpretation of different set of stereo aerial photographs, 1:10,000 (available in shapefile format). EVENT LANDSLIDE INVENTORY MAPS, realized mainly through field survey acitvity 1:10,000 scale (available in shapefile format). LANDUSE MAP, realized using ortho-photo maps, 1:10,000 scale, update year 2000 (available in shapefile format). DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL, resolution 10m x 10m, realized by interpolation of digital contour line at 1:10,000 scale, (available in geotiff).

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO C OLLAZZONE STUDY AREA Area about 80 km 2

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO A VAILABLE DATA 1941   1997  1985  1977  1954  Multi-temporal landslide inventory map including shallow and, deep-seated slides. Stereo-aerial photographs taken between 1941 and Event landslide inventory maps in the period between

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO C OLLAZZONE R ESULTS For each inventory in the study area, we estimate the parameter for the three distribution using three different estimation method

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO P OTENTIAL A PPLICATIONS The software for determination of landslide statistics is suitable for:  Landslide inventory comparison and evaluation  Estimate of landslide magnitude  Landslide hazard assessment  Hazard scenario analysis

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO 2015 LAMPRE W EBSITE D5.3 Code of the “Prototype SW for landslide statistics” Report/UserGuide of the “Prototype SW for landslide statistics”

COSTARICA EVENTO DE DISEMINACIÓN Y CAPACITACIÓN | ENERO SW T RAINING Software training  Configuration  Running Post LAMPRE support through:  direct communications  short visits  mail exchange  web conferences  web seminar