Deutscher Wetterdienst Long-term trends of precipitation verification results for GME, COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE Ulrich Damrath.

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Presentation transcript:

Deutscher Wetterdienst Long-term trends of precipitation verification results for GME, COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE Ulrich Damrath

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Overview  Verification using „Fuzzy“ methods  Example for the FSS and he upscaling HSS for January and July  Time series for special thresholds and window sizes  Consisency of precipitation forecasts using the CRA method (update)  current state

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2008: Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation, observation and GME

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2008: Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation, observation and CEU

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2008: Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation, observation and CDE

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2008: FSS Monthly average of precipitation: 68 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2009: FSS Monthly average of precipitation: 30 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2010: Frequency distribution of precipitation Observation, GME, CEU and CDE

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2010: FSS Monthly average of precipitation: 44 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation July 2007 (Observation and GME)

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation July 2007 (Observation and CEU)

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Accumulated frequency distribution of precipitation July 2007 (Observation and CDE)

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification July 2007: FSS Monthly average of precipitation: 120 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification July 2008: FSS Monthly average of precipitation: 88 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification July 2009: FSS Monthly average of precipitation: 108 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification July 2010: Frequency distribution of precipitation Observation, GME, CEU and CDE

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification July 2010: FSS Monthly average of precipitation: 78 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2008: HSS(UPS) Monthly average of precipitation: 68 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2009: HSS(UPS) Monthly average of precipitation: 30 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2010: Frequency distribution of precipitation Observation, GME, CEU and CDE

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification January 2010: HSS(UPS) Monthly average of precipitation: 44 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification July 2007: HSS(UPS) Monthly average of precipitation: 120 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification July 2008: HSS(UPS) Monthly average of precipitation: 88 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification July 2009: HSS(UPS) Monthly average of precipitation: 108 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification July 2010: Frequency distribution of precipitation Observation, GME, CEU and CDE

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification July 2010: HSS(UPS) Monthly average of precipitation: 78 mm

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, choice of windows and thresholds

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, ETS UPS GME VV:06-30

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, ETS UPS CEU VV:06-30

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, ETS UPS GME VV:06-18

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, ETS UPS CEU VV:06-18

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, ETS UPS CDE VV:06-18

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, FSS GME VV:06-30

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, FSS CEU VV:06-30

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, FSS GME VV:06-18

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, FSS CEU VV:06-18

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Fuzzy verification: Time series, FSS CDE VV:06-18

Entity-based QPF verification (rain “blobs”) by E. Ebert (BOM Melbourne) Verify the properties of the forecast rain system against the properties of the observed rain system: location rain area rain intensity (mean, maximum) ObservedForecast CRA error decomposition The total mean squared error (MSE) can be written as: MSE total = MSE displacement + MSE volume + MSE pattern Configuration for the current study: - “Observations”: forecasts: hours - Forecasts : forecasts: hours and forecasts: hours

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Consistency of precipitation forecasts: Parts of error decomposition Autumn 2009 Dark :forecasts h Light:forecasts h

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Consistency of precipitation forecasts: Parts of error decomposition Winter 2009/10 Dark :forecasts h Light:forecasts h

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Consistency of precipitation forecasts: Parts of error decomposition Spring 2010 Dark :forecasts h Light:forecasts h

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Consistency of precipitation forecasts: Parts of error decomposition Summer 2010 Dark :forecasts h Light:forecasts h

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Consistency of precipitation forecasts: Parts of error decomposition Summer 2010 Dark :forecasts h Light:forecasts h

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow Summary  Fraction skill score and upscaling ETS are considered. Both scores are relatively high correlated.  Fuzzy verification in general shows best results for low precipitation values and large window sizes  For some months best results can be seen for precipitation amounts around 2 mm (12 h) -1  CEU and CDE models have nearly the same quality and are better than GME especially during summer times.  A positive long term trend of precipitation quality can be seen for low precipitation values and large window sizes. No clear trend is visible for high precipitation values for any window size.  Results for the check of consistency of precipitation forecasts lead to the expected (but proved) results that for high thresholds the inconsistency is most obvious. During winter time pattern errors are dominant. During summer times displacement errors are prevailing.

Long-term Trends of Precipitation Verification Results for COSMO-EU: Ulrich Damrath COSMO GM Moscow One conclusion  Forecasters sometimes really like CDE.  But the future is CDE-EPS!