Modeling Fantasy Football Quarterbacks Myles Wallin Kyle Zeberlein MAY 4, 2016 CELEBRATION OF LEARNING AUGUSTANA COLLEGE

Goals ● Predict fantasy football points scored off quarterback stats for each game played in 2015 NFL season ● Aggregate weekly predictions and make a full season prediction ● Rank quarterbacks for the season based upon their full season prediction

Fantasy Point Breakdown ●.04 points per yard passing ● 4 points per touchdown thrown ● -2 points per interception/fumble ●.1 points per yard rushing ● 6 points per touchdown rushed

Criteria ● General Formula ● Greater than 47 games started ● Non-Rookie, 1-3 years starting in the NFL ● career games started ● Non-Rookie, Less than one year starting ● 1-15 career games started ● True Rookie ● First Year in NFL

General Formula

Non-Rookie, 1-3 years starting in the NFL 0.5(Opponent PPG allowed 2014) + 0.5(avg. PPG in career)

Non-Rookie, Less than one year starting 0.6(Opponent PPG allowed 2014) +0.3(own team's QB stats 2014) + 0.1(Total Career Points / # games started)

True Rookie 0.6(Opponent PPG allowed 2014) + 0.4(own team's QB stats 2014)

Week 1 Results

Outliers A quarterback who has not started 10 or more games during the season that is being analyzed outliers ◦Peyton Manning ◦Andrew Luck ◦Ryan Mallett ◦Colin Kaepernick ◦Tony Romo

Results Yahoo predicted 16 quarterbacks more accurately We predicted 16 quarterbacks more accurately Including outliers ◦We were 1,063.3 points over from the actual results(2.076 points/game /quarterback) ◦Yahoo was points over from the actual results(.956 points/game/quarterback) Excluding outliers ◦We were 18.3 points over (.0357 points/game) ◦Yahoo was points under (.6865 points/game)

Results cont. We next analyzed the data using the square root of sums of differences squared ◦Shows pure difference between projections and actual results Including outliers: ◦We were off by points (17.48 points/QB for the season) ◦Yahoo was off by points (16.32 points/QB for the season) Excluding outliers: ◦We were off by points (10.98 points/QB for the season) ◦Yahoo was off by points (12.86 points/QB for the season)

Updated General Updated: 0.6[part 1] [part 2]+0.49[part 3]+0.532[part 4] Original: 0.5[part 1]+0.5[part 2]+0.5[part 3]+0.5[part 4]

Comparison | Aaron Rodgers

Updated Non-Rookie, 1-3 years starting in the NFL Updated: (Opponent PPG allowed 2014) (avg. PPG in career) Original: 0.5(Opponent PPG allowed 2014) + 0.5(avg. PPG in career)

Updated Non-Rookie, Less than one year starting Updated: 0.6(Opponent PPG allowed 2014) (own team's QB stats 2014) (Total Career Point /games started) Original: 0.6(Opponent PPG allowed 2014) +0.3(own team's QB stats 2014) + 0.1(Total Career Points / # games started)

Comparison | Derek Carr

Updated True Rookie Updated: (Opponent PPG allowed 2014) (own team's QB stats 2014) Original: 0.6(Opponent PPG allowed 2014) + 0.4(avg. PPG in career)

Errors ● Trades/offseason moves ● Two points conversions not factored in ● Lacking past data on two-point conversions ● With the rule change, we assumed teams kick PAT almost always ● Injuries ● Quarterbacks start for full season ● Yahoo!/ESPN projections ● Timing of the project

Thank you

Sources ● Bales, Jonathan. Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft. North Charleston, SC: CreateSpace, Print. ● "ESPN." Fantasy Football. ESPN, n.d. Web. 26 Oct ● "Fantasy Sports." Yahoo Sports. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Oct ● Kimbrell, Charles E. Fantasy Football Guide Tips on How to Draft and Play Fantasy Football. Place of Publication Not Identified: Sold by Amazon Digital Services, Print. ● "Pro Football Reference." Pro-Football-Reference.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 26 Oct ● paper to be posted on Augustana Digital Commons...

Any Questions?

Criteria ● General Formula ● Greater than 47 games started ● Non-Rookie, 1-3 years starting in the NFL ● career games started ● Non-Rookie, Less than one year starting ● 1-15 career games started ● True Rookie ● First Year in NFL