Measuring parliamentary impact in the legislative process Steven MacGregor PSA Conference paper - March 2016 politicsphd.wordpress.com

My PhD – the short version Government brings forward a Bill What impact does Parliament have during that process? Parliament scrutinises/amends that Bill Bill becomes law, if approved by Parliament

Parliaments definitely have an impact… AuthorParliamentSuccess rate of non- Government amendments Griffith (1970s)UK5% Tsebelis etc (1990s/2000s)European50% Shephard and Cairney (early 2000s) Scottish12% Me (current)Scottish26% Thompson (current)UK1% PLUS, Government’s own amendments often “inspired” by parliament Conclusion – parliament has an impact, it is not insignificant and its more than we think

Recent analytical approaches - interesting but abstract From Tsebelis & Kalandrakis – 28% insignificant (editing amendments) – 32% significant (substantive changes) – 24% highly significant (even more substantive) – 9% important (alter the scope of legislation) – 6% highly important (considerable alterations)

Gaelic Language Bill Case-study example of how key part of PhD analysis will be conducted – “traditional” amendment analysis – *“structural” analysis – *“thematic” analysis

Gaelic Language Bill – policy content ThemeDescription Bord na Gaidhlig The central provision of the Bill, establishing a public body to promote and facilitate Gaelic development and specifying its broad functions National Plan for Gaelic This section placed a duty on the Bord to develop a National Plan for Gaelic to provide strategic direction to Gaelic development Gaelic Language Plans These sections provided a power to the Bord to require any Scottish public authority to develop a Gaelic Language Plan, setting out how they would promote Gaelic development, and specifying the approval and update mechanisms of those plans; it also enabled the Bord to develop statutory guidance which public authorities would have to have regard to when developing their Gaelic Language Plans Gaelic educationThis section enabled the Bord to issue statutory guidance on the development of Gaelic education. General These sections set out the interpretation and commencement provisions of the Bill for the other sections of the Bill SchedulesSchedule 1 set out the detail of the Bord’s constitution, such as the minimum and maximum numbers of members of the board of the Bord. Schedule 2 amended other statute consequential to the provisions of the Bill, such as inserting the Bord into the schedule of public bodies required to comply with the Ethical Standards in Public Life etc. (Scotland) Act 2000

Successful substantive amendments Government9 Govt (inspired by parliament)13 Parliament14 Total36 Gaelic Language Bill - amendments

GLB – structural analysis SectionOriginal word count Words added Words deleted Word change Final word count % change Long title % 1 – Constitution and function of Bord % 2 – National Gaelic Language Plan % 3 – Gaelic Language Plans % 4 – Review of, and appeal against, notices % 5 – Approval of plans % 11 – Regulations and Orders 4200+/-042+/-0% 12 – Consequential amendments 600+/-06+/-0% 13 – Short title and commencement 6611+/-066+/-0% Schedule 1 – Bord na Gaidhlig / /-0% Schedule 2 – Consequential amendments /-0125+/-0% Totals %

Variation - % Change during Parliamentary Passage

Required parliament to be consulted in the development of the National Plan, and for final version be laid before parliament. Required National Plan to be updated every 5 years rather than when considered appropriate by Ministers. Specified that the National Plan must contain strategies for the development of the Gaelic language, culture and education. Specified that the Bord must publish a draft of its education guidance, rather than just consult those with an interest. Broadened the coverage of the Bill beyond Scottish public authorities to include cross-border public authorities. GLB – practical impact

GLB – themes Category A – amendments which effectively have no policy or procedural impact -Addition of words to long title Category B – amendments whose impact appears to be predominately procedural and does not significantly change the underlying policy of the Bill -Timescales by which action should be taken -Consultation requirements -Extension of application of Bill’s provisions to wider range of entities -Specification of information which must be included in documents Category C – amendments which appear to have a substantive policy impact no examples

Not just the Scottish Parliamet Griffith revisited – methodical study of amendment outcomes in late 1960s/early 1970s UK Parliament – book provides good quality descriptions of 166 amendments – Recurring categories of amendment impact Delegated/order-making powers Parliamentary procedure Offences/penalties/sanctions Time periods Consultation

Conclusion Much progress has been made in identifying and analysing impact in the parliamentary process But risk that the abstract nature of some analysis is masking what impact is really like Doing the fine-grained policy analysis is difficult and time-consuming But we don’t need to be scared of it, and it can help build up a thematic picture of the types of change which parliaments make to legislation That in turn can give us a policy-based lens through which to decide whether parliamentary impact has been genuinely “significant” or not Much more data to collect, but willing to predict significant amount of parliamentary impact is procedural and process-based (adding layers of detail and constraint) and a very small minority substantively changes the underlying policy of a Bill