1 Lima, Peru, June 2010 Kenneth S. Casey, Tess Brandon NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center Nick Rayner Met Office Hadley Centre June 2010 GHRSST Reanalysis Technical Advisory Group (RAN-TAG) 2010 Summary of Current Activities Kenneth S. Casey, Tess Brandon NOAA National Oceanographic Data Center Nick Rayner Met Office Hadley Centre June 2010

2 RAN Technical Advisory Group Ken Casey Ed Armstrong Jorge Vazquez Craig Donlon Hiroshi Kawamura Gilles Larnicol David Llewellyn-Jones Nick Rayner Gary Wick Dick Reynolds Bill Emery Helen Beggs Gary Corlett Tess Brandon Current RAN-TAG Membership

3 Historical and In situ Activities

4 LDEO [Kaplan et al., 1998, 2003] SST Project Goals To provide a statistically homogenous analysis of the full historical data set of in situ observations, accompanied by verified uncertainty estimates, using realistic covariances of the “true” field and data error, with the minimum of other assumptions. To support studies of climate variability and paleoreconstruction verification; serve as a benchmark for other century-scale analyses. Current Status The original 5 o x5 o analysis version of for in situ data only (1856--) extended to present using monthly NCEP OI v.2 is updated operationally by IRI Data Library; part of GCOS intercomparisons. Recent methodological developments: joint estimation of reduced space patterns and amplitude timeseries (w/ A.Ilin, HUT); ensemble representation of uncertainty (w/ A.Karspeck & S.Sain, NCAR). Looking Forward Using SST variability estimates from satellite data to model in situ data error and use it in a reduced space analysis of historical data; adding middle scales of SST variability to the global large scale solution at 1 o x1 o resolution; representing the uncertainty of by an ensemble of realizations; making this ensemble available on the web (collab w/A.Karspeck, NCAR). Alexey Kaplan, LDEO

5 Viva Banzon & Richard W. Reynolds - NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC/Remote Sensing and Application Division ERSST Version 3b Project Goals 1.Provide historic SST monthly analyses from 1854 to present on a 2 o spatial grid 2.Merge SST and land surface temperatures to produce global surface temperatures 3.Improve documentation Current Status 1.Improved tuning procedures result in stronger anomalies prior to Version 3b available with in situ data only AVHRR data not used because Residual Pathfinder v5 AVHRR biases impact climate signal Looking Forward 1.Reprocess analyses with update COADS data 2.Improve satellite bias correction 3.Reprocessing using new releases: ICOADS 2.5 and Pathfinder v6 SST Annual Anomaly ( o C) Viva Banzon, NOAA NCDC

6 HadSST3 in situ SST product Project Goals 1.Bias corrected global in situ SST data set 1850-present 2.Quantify uncertainties comprehensively 3.Compare uncertainties arising from measurement error, bias correction and reconstruction methods. Global average HadSST3 anomaly Current Status 1.Bias corrected data set with uncertainties based on ICOADS2.0 completed to ICOADS2.5 data quality controlled and ready for bias correction 3.No callsign information after Looking Forward 1.Independent test of bias corrections possibly using subsurface data 2.Comparison with corrected marine air temperatures 3.Input to HadISST2 4.Regularly update product and feed into global temperature data set HadCRUT4. Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session

7 Level 1 Activities

8 Project Goals 1.To collect as much AVHRR HRPT data from receiving stations all over the world 2.To reformat and stitch together the collected Level 0 data, generate L1b data from that stitched data, and then produce L2 and L3 SSTs. 3.To serve as a fundamental input to high-resolution GHRSST CDRs Current Status 1.Kick-off meeting held at GHRSST-10 2.Agreement on roles of original data providers, a central HRPT Data Assembly Center, and a long term archive 3.Identified numerous committed partners and potential partners 4.Ad hoc group created draft plan Looking Forward 1.Begin collection of Level 0 data at URI 2.Continue evaluation of SeaDAS- based Pathfinder software for LAC/HRPT use 3.Seek commitments from other potential partners – LOTS OF INTEREST AVHRR HRPT/LAC Reprocessing

9 Level 2 and Level 3 Activities

10 AVHRR Pathfinder SST Project Goals 1.To provide the longest, most accurate, and highest resolution consistently- reprocessed SST climate data record (CDR) from the AVHRR sensor series 2.To serve as a fundamental input to GHRSST Reanalysis CDRs Current Status 1.Version 5 Available: Daily, 5-, 7-, 8- day, Monthly, Yearly SSTs for , and climatologies 2.Included in GCOS Intercomparisons 3.Available via FTP, HTTP, OPeNDAP, WCS, WMS, LAS and JPL POET 4.Basis for 25km Daily OI plus others… 5.Basic V6 code in place, establishing overall workflow at NODC now Looking Forward 1.SeaDAS-based processing at NODC expected within a year 2.Version 6 to be in GHRSST L2P, L3U, and L3C formats, with uncertainties 3.Higher-resolution reference field (25 km Daily OISST) improves coverage in coasts and near strong gradients 4.HRPT/LAC “Pathfinder” coordination Pathfinder SSTs available at Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session SST Anomaly (ºC) December , 1982

11 Correcting V5 Pathfinder Biases Project Goals To reduce bias in v5 AVHRR pathfinder SST Current Status Period from 1985 to 2008 processed AVHRR bias calculated from (A)ATSR-AVHRR differences and TOMS aerosol data Pre 1991 (ATSR-1): AVHRR node times matched with later (A)ATSR-AVHRR data to use later (A)ATSR-AVHRR data to calc bias Outside (A)ATSR swath: monthly (A)ATSR- AVHRR average data used to calc bias Looking Forward 1.Explain biases with AATSR post Modifications to bias calculations 3.Use alternative aerosol data since TOMS data not available whole period 4.Develop an error model 5.Reprocess whole dataset for consistency 6.Use in HadISST2 Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session HadSST3 = in-situ data Roger Saunders and Sarah Millington, UKMO

12 MODIS SST Improvements Project Goals 1.Add LATBAND SST retrievals to MODIS Aqua and Terra 2.Implement new MODIS Collection 6 calibration 3.Minimize seasonal, latitudinal differences with respect to reference observations Current Status 1.Update to MODIS Collection 6 calibration 2.Developed new matchup databases 3.New SST retrieval equation calculated 4.New Hypercube tables being computed (discrete values) Looking Forward 1.Proposal submitted to NSA to support implementation of Hypercube with continuous functions 2.LATBAND and Hypercube being implemented in Pathfinder for all 5- channel AVHRRs Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session Bob Evans, UMami/RSMAS

13 (A)ATSR SST Version 2.0 Project Goals 1.To provide the first consistently processed (A)ATSR data set 2.To compare time-series of global and regional (A)ATSR SST with those of other SST datasets. 3.Production of (A)ATSR only climatology Current Status 1.(A)ATSR data set (V2.0) complete. 2.Discussions underway to get into the LTSRF Looking Forward 1.See next slide…

14 ATSR Re-processing for Climate Project Goals Re-processing of ATSR series observations to derive: 1.Independent record of  15 years of SSTs 2.Radiometric (skin) and depth SSTs 3.Biases <0.1 K, regionally 4.Target stability  0.05 K decade -1, regionally 5.Comprehensive error characterization Current Status Time series will cover 1991 to New formalism for retrieval coefficients developed. ATSR-2 and AATSR work complete. Bias target substantially achieved (see graphic: bias map of D3 SST against drifting buoys for AATSR). Looking Forward ATSR-1 in progress, due end of summer Homogenization using overlaps. Quality and stability assessment by Rayner and Kent during autumn L4 production. Set up data distribution by end Project will end circa. January Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session Chris Merchant, Univ. of Edinburgh

15 IMOS HRPT AVHRR SST Reprocessing Project Goals 1.To reprocess HRPT AVHRR data back to 1996 from Australian and Antarctic ground stations to L2P and single day/single night L3C SSTskin 2.Aim to reduce errors by using: Regional drifting buoys to produce regression coefficients Improved BT to SST algorithms with day-time terms including latitude and higher order Improved CLAVR-based cloud clearing Nighttime NOAA-18 L3C Current Status 1.Producing RT and reprocessed HRPT AVHRR SSTskin L2P and single day/night L3C files from NOAA-17, 18 and 19 stitched raw data from Australian RX stations back to June For 1 Jun 2008 to 23 May 2010, IMOS HRPT AVHRR L2P SSTfnd cf drifting buoy SSTfnd exhibited standard deviations of: NOAA-17: 0.23  C (Night), 0.37  C (Day) NOAA-18: 0.25  C (Night), 0.36  C (Day) NOAA-19: 0.27  C (Night), 0.34  C (Day) Looking Forward 1.L2P and L3C files back to 1996 available from GHRSST GDAC by June Include Casey and Davis raw AVHRR data 3.Test using Chris Merchant’s Bayesian cloud clearing 4.Test NOAA’s MTSAT-1R physical retrieval method to produce skin SST from AVHRR 5.Implement Jon Mittaz’ AVHRR raw data to BT calibration method using semi-analytic retrieval models Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session Helen Beggs, ABOM

16 NEED SLIDE ON GOES Project Goals 1.? Current Status 1.? Looking Forward 1.? Pathfinder SSTs available at Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session Andy Harris and Eileen Maturi, NOAA

17 NEED SLIDE ON MT-SAT Project Goals 1.? Current Status 1.? Looking Forward 1.? Pathfinder SSTs available at Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session Andy Harris and Eileen Maturi, NOAA, others?

18 SEVIRI Project Goals 1.To reprocess SEVIRI data back to beginning of MSG, in 2002 Current Status 1.Will use new processing chain and algorithms making use of ECMWF outputs) 2.Reprocessing is scheduled for 2013/ SST files will be produced a hourly GDS v2.0 L3C, collating data from 15 minutes slots in 1 file Looking Forward 1.Data will be ready for delivery after 2014 Pathfinder SSTs available at Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session Pierre LeBorgne

19 IASI L2P SST Project Goals 1.Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) is a key payload element of the METOP series 2.IASI L2P SST 3.Core L2P produced from March 2010 experimentally. Current Status 1.No current re-processing plans Looking Forward 1.If the full IASI L2P products are produced in the OSI-SAF CDOP-2 phase, then these plans could include re-processing activities (CDOP-2 is post March 2012). 2.IASI L2 EUMETSAT products (which include surface temperature) are available from April Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session

20 Level 4 Activities

21 MGDSST reanalysis Project Goals 1.Provide consistent time series of global daily SST analysis during the satellite era 2.Used for ocean reanalysis with a regional ocean data assimilation system (MOVE/MRI.COM-WNP) real-time analysis vs. reanalysis Current Status 1.Use a system same as operational MGDSST 2.SSTs for was calculated using Pathfinder V5. Working on going back to In 2005, began operational recalculation (delayed about 5 months) using AQUA/AMSR-E and NOAA/AVHRR(GAC). Looking Forward 1.recalculate using Pathfinder V6 for compare with another of JMA`s SST analyses (COBE-SST), which has long term record (> 100yrs) and uses only in-situ observation. 3.Interested in providing to GDAC/LTSRF Shiro Ishizaki, JMA

22 Project Goals 1.Provide consistent long L4 SST daily timeseries for regional climate modelling, and climatologies to be used as background (first guess) field for operational real-time L4 processing. (MERSEA-IP, PRIMI, MyOCEAN) 2.Assess the system variability and trends via statistical analyses (SESAME-IP) 3.Build robust climatologies for comparison and validation of in-situ climatologies (SeaDataNet) =407 Current Status 1.Version 1 Available: Daily , and climatologies 2.Available via FTP, HTTP 3.Climatologies are used as first guess for the L4 operational production within MyOCEAN SST-Tematic Assembly Center Looking Forward 1.Working on ultra high resolution product now 2.Available late 2010 Mediterranean and Black Sea re-analyses Bruno Buongiorno Nardelli, GOS/CNR

23 OSI SAF Sea Ice Concentration ( )‏ Steinar Eastwood, met.no OSI SAF sea ice concentration reprocessing completed Jan 2010 Contains sea ice concentration from to using SMMR and SSM/I data on swath format Provided on polar stereographic 10km and lambert azimutal 12.5km grids, on NetCDF3 format Uses dynamical tiepoints (30days window) and includes error estimates for each data point Available at: –

24 OSTIA Reanalysis Project Goals 1.To produce a 20-year SST and sea- ice concentration reanalysis using the OSTIA system with input data from Pathfinder AVHRR v5, re-processed (A)ATSR, ICOADS in situ data and re- processed SMMR and SSMI sea-ice concentration from the EUMETSAT OSI-SAF. Current Status 1.A preliminary version of the reanalysis from has been completed. 2.Assessments of the impact of ATSR- series data (particularly ATSR-1) is being undertaken. 3.More general assessments of the accuracy and stability of the reanalysis are underway. Looking Forward 1.Decision on how to deal with the ATSR-1 data to be made. 2.Further detailed assessments of the first version. 3.Re-run the reanalysis before the end of Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session Monthly mean anomaly, Feb 1992 Matt Martin, UKMO

25 Richard W. Reynolds & Viva Banzon - NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC/Remote Sensing and Application Division Daily OI Version 2 Project Goals 1.Produce Daily OI on 1/4 o spatial grid Include satellite bias correction with respect to in situ data 2.Compute analysis for entire period with satellite data 3.Make product useful for climate applications Current Status 1.Uses AVHRR + In Situ Data September present 2.Uses AMSR + AVHRR + In Situ Data June present 3.Interim (1 day of data) and final (3 days of data) versions 4.Ship SSTs corrected using buoy SSTs Looking Forward 1.Add higher resolution daily OI with ~ 1-10 km spatial resolution Use 1/4 o daily AMSR+AVHRR OI at current day and strongly damped high resolution analysis at previous day as first guess Use IR (AVHRR/MODIS) data only June present AVHRR-only AMSR+AVHRR Anomaly SST Impact from Hurricane Katrina

26 Richard W. Reynolds & Viva Banzon - NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC/Remote Sensing and Application Division Daily High Resolution “Two-Stage” OI Project Goals 1.Two-Stage Analysis allows processing to take advantage of both microwave (MW) and infrared (IR) satellite data MW has better coverage than IR IR has higher resolution than MW 2.High resolution features are only present when high resolution IR data are available Current Status 1.Low resolution analysis (stage 1) uses AMSR, AVHRR (Pathfinder v5) and in situ data 25 km grid; daily analysis 2.High resolution (stage 2) uses AVHRR (Pathfinder v5) only 4.4 km grid; daily analysis June 2002 – December 2006 Looking Forward 1.Replace AVHRR Pathfinder v5 with v6 2.Make high resolution (stage 2) analysis operational 3.Create web site 4.Make analysis available to users

27 Global 1-km SST (G1SST) Goal: To produce a multi-year G1SST reanalysis data product Current Status: G1SST is a real-time, merged SST product (L4) using 16 satellite sensors and in situ measurements. Daily G1SST maps are produced in near real-time. The JPL G1SST web site provides basic visualizations and serves the data via OpenDAP. The G1SST data are also delivered to GHRSST for broader distributions. Future: The G1SST will be improved by applying corrections of bias and diurnal cycle and by implementing a multi-scale merging technique. We would like to produce a G1SST reanalysis before May 2009 using GHRSST L2 products.

28 DMI L4 Reanalysis, with Greenland Research Climate Centre Project Goals 1.A L4 SST reanalysis in 4 km to present, based upon Pathfinder and ARC data 3.Cover Arctic and focus upon Greenland waters around Nuuk. 4.Use the OSI SAF reanalysis ice mask. Area Current Status 1.Reanalysis planned to be carried out jan-march Released April Looking Forward 1.Trends and anomalies will be derived from the dataset during 2011 and compared to in situ time series in Greenland. Project Summary: GHRSST-11 Reanalysis Breakout Session

29 Multi-sensor Ultra-high Resolution (MUR) T. Mike Chin, Jorge Vazquez, Ed Armstrong (JPL); Arthur Mariano (U.Miami) MUR Relevance to NASA Goals Looking Forward Impacts on weather forecast studied through “Research To Operations” project Will incorporate feature detection for motion compensation. Plans to incorporate reprocessed AVHRR data (from P. Cornillon and R. Evans). A program set has been built for SST product validation using in situ data from fixed and moored buoys.. Project Goals NASA MEaSUREs Project for merged satellite SST product. Uses the MRVA approach to merge on the 1-2 km spatial scale. Initially focused on the post-2000 data. Contributes to improved understanding of ocean physics which will aid in improving climate models. Increases our understanding of the role of oceans and atmosphere in the climate system and improves our predictive capability Single vs multi- resolution analysis from the same data using the same finest-level analysis scale. Date: Jan 30, 2008 Current Status Two complete years of the MUR “Version 0” analysis available for in GHRSST L4 format. NCAMERICA regional domain (USA-centric parts of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans), more regions planned. Product validated using validation program set for both drifting and fixed buoys. Preliminary results show biases close to zero with no seasonal dependence and RMS values less than 0.4 C°.

30 OTHER L4 WE SHOULD TRACK? Perros-Guirec, June 2008

31 GHRSST L4 In Situ Matchup Validation Project Goals 1.To provide in situ validation system for JPL PO.DAAC L4 product development efforts. Built on IDL. 2.Uses in situ data from drifting/moored buoys and ships etc. 3. Access methods to in situ and satellite data include HTTP/FTP clients wget and curl, and IDL OPeNDAP client Current Status 1.Being developed for in-house use only at present 2.Adapted to use AATSR L2P as validation sources Looking Forward 1.Could possibly be made public, perhaps using a web services approach Project Summary: GHRSST-X Reanalysis Breakout Session Ed Armstrong, JPL PO.DAAC

32 Data Tools/Intercomparison Activities

33 GCOS SST Intercomparison Framework Looking Forward 1.Pick up pilot study where it was left off 2.Update graphics for all products and standard diagnostics 3.Update products with new versions (e.g. ERSSTv3b) and new data (e.g. PFV ) 4.Summarize differences as a set of strengths and weaknesses for each product to provide guidance to users of SST analysis products Current Status 1.Eleven unique products in the framework, including historical and satellite-era products, as well as standard diagnostics and browse graphics for each 2.New linear trend maps as a standard diagnostic for all historical products 3.Pilot study to determine the origins of observed differences using a common set of input data – on hold Project Goals 1.To understand differences between global and near-global SST analyses with the aim of producing better, long-term SST climate data records 2.To use this understanding to link the modern satellite-based records with the historical, primarily in situ-based records Tess Brandon, NOAA NODC

GHRSST Data Availability Getting closer for both GAC and HRPT Still no progress

GHRSST Data Availability Complete, but not at LTSRF yet Getting closer for both GAC and HRPT Proposed to NASA ROSES (Vazquez) Plans now in place for reprocessing during