IHA Secretariat STATE OF AUSTRALIA’S HOUSING INDUSTRY Dr Harley Dale Chief Economist, Housing Industry Association

2 COUNTRY: Australia NAME OF ORGANIZATION: Housing Industry Association Ltd 1- ORGANIZATION OVERVIEW: As the only national industry association for Australian building professionals, the HIA represents the interests of Australia’s housing industry at regional and national levels. The HIA’s extensive membership program supports residential builders, trade contractors, developers, design professionals, kitchen and bathroom specialists, manufacturers and suppliers. The HIA has been supporting the Australian home building industry for more than 60 years. HIA Economics is Australia’s market leader in housing research and analysis. The team of experienced economists provides HIA members, industry and media with a trusted source of economic data, analysis, research, forecasts, and commentary relating to the Australian housing industry’s conditions and trends. HIA Economics has the best housing forecasting record in Australia over the last 15 years. Through its consultancy arm – Australian Construction Insights (ACI) – the economics team offers a tailored market research service, together with analysis and forecasts of Australia’s non-residential construction markets. Who is the Housing Industry Association?

3 2- HOUSING ECONOMIC STATISTICS: Is Australia really the ‘lucky country’? Starts:Percentages:Numbers: - Single Family (detached) 5.4%114,384 - Multifamily (multi-units) 5.4%100,945 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) $bn (Sep 2015 qtr) GDP Growth (annual Sep Qtr 2015) 2.5% GDP Per Capita (Yr to Sep 2015 qtr) 0.8%68,580 House Price Index capital cities (Yr to January 2016) 7.4%572,500 Consumer Price Index1.7% Unemployment (December) 5.8% Home Mortgage Interest Rate (discounted variable rate, January 2016) 4.85% Home Ownership Rate (Yr to June 2014) 66.70% Population Growth/Net (annual growth, June 2015) 1.4%317,100

Australia is also in an election year, while new home building remains the kingmaker of the Australian economy 4  The Australian economy has not had a recession since the early 1990’s!

New home construction is at record levels 5  Australia’s new home building sector defied global (& domestic) economic conditions and surged to record highs in 2015.

A slowdown is ahead, with heightened uncertainty around the approaching downturn 6  The tide is now turning and economic and political developments are unfavourably timed.

Renovations activity has failed to fire up 7  Why is it that renovations (remodeling) activity failed to follow new home building higher?

IHA Secretariat THANK YOU FOR YOUT TIME Dr Harley Dale Chief Economist – HIA & ACI