Joseph Fitzwater, Senior Analyzing Hurricane Intensity with a New Classification for the 21 st Century

Introduction Hurricane Katrina is the costliest natural disaster in US history. Its classification did not justify this extreme storm

The Saffir-Simpson Scale The current scale in use for classifying hurricanes Created in 1971 by Herbert Saffir and Robert Simpson Based solely on wind speed

Purpose of Capstone Create a modern classification for hurricanes before storms make landfall Base this classification on more than just winds More information on a hurricane used in a classification yields a more accurate product to share to citizens

Methodology 1) Determine availability of data 2) Find hurricane parameters where data is available, and the parameter is applicable to strength 3) Create a formula from these parameters to accurately rank hurricanes based on these parameters 4) Test this formula on past hurricanes at landfall for precision

1) Determine Availability of Data Data available from the NHC (National Hurricane Center) Only some data is available for older hurricanes

2) Find Hurricane Parameters Where Data is Available, and the Parameter is Applicable to Strength Parameters chosen based on availability of data in step 1 Parameters include: 1 minute sustained wind speed (As used by Saffir-Simpson scale, knots) Tropical storm force wind radii (knots) Hurricane storm force wind radii (knots) Pressure (mb) Velocity (knots)

Maximum One Minute Sustained Wind Speeds A major indicator in determining strength of storm Found near the eye wall of a hurricane

Wind Force Radii The amount of distance from the eye (center) of a hurricane where a specific wind speed is measured. Hurricane force wind radii: Distance from the center where hurricane force wind speed is measured (65 knots). Tropical storm force wind radii: Distance from the center where tropical storm force wind speed is measured (35 knots).

Pressure Generally parallels strength with maximum one-minute sustained winds of a hurricane. Measure of the barometric pressure of the center of the storm.

Velocity Hurricanes generally produce similar rainfall rates Huge indicator of flooding.

3) Create a Formula from these Parameters to Accurately Rank Hurricanes Based on these Parameters W= 1 minute maximum sustained winds T = Tropical storm force wind radii H = Hurricane force wind radii V = Velocity P = Pressure Produces Point Value (x) to be categorized

4) Test this formula on past hurricanes at landfall for precision

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Rank

Category Classification

Hurricane Rank from Developed Formula

Conclusions The size of a hurricane’s impact has a significant impact on this project’s categorization system. Both the tropical storm and hurricane force wind radii provided a sufficient glimpse in determining areas of significant impact. Wind speed still bears a large weight in determining classification, but the introduction of additional parameters lessens its impact, since the Saffir-Simpson scale is solely based on winds. Velocity has a significant role in this classification, since flooding is a common bi-product of hurricanes.