Multi-hazard assessments for building sustainable and resilient communities UCL-CAFOD partnership Melanie Duncan UCL EngD Candidate

“The only thing that is certain (in climate science) is that there will be surprises.” (SEI in FIC and HFP, 2010: 10)

Climate Change in Context Climate Change Geophysical Hazards Resource miss- management Man-made Hazards Source: c12, Shutterstock Source: Zastol`skiy Victor Leonidovich, Shutterstock Source: SOPHII.org Source: Antonio V. Oquias, Shutterstock Geophysical Hazards Man-made hazards Resource mismanagement Climate Change

Multi-hazards Hyogo Framework for Action Academia/ research Funding bodies NGOs Need to capture:  Feedbacks and interrelations between hazards  Dynamic nature of hazards across time and space Source: kentoh, Shutterstock

CCA and DRR Debate Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) –Overlaps –Interactions –Discrepancies Role of science? Indigenous Knowledge Integration Multi-hazard Interdisciplinary Scaling up Mainstreaming DRR Participatory (H)VCA CCA External knowledge and science Source: Christian Aid (2010: 6)

Process User Appropriate Intervention Indigenous knowledge Science Vulnerability/ capacity assessment

Current approaches to Hazard Assessment How do NGOs currently assess hazards? London based interviews with: –INGOs –Consultants –Research Institutions –Donor organisations Desk studies and literature review Observations during workshops

Themes Integrated sustainable development; Integrated risk management CCA and DRR are perceived to overlap Tools Science Single vs. multi-hazard Scale Feedback and evaluation ‘Add-ons’

Systems thinking Complexities –Multi-hazard –Scenarios/ long-term perspective –Scale of analysis –Need to shift from impact to cause –Multi-stakeholder/ multi- sector Systems theory –Inherent and emergent –System dynamics –Multi-scale –Argues against linear, event-orientated views –Necessitates an interdisciplinary approach

The Philippines Recent field visit to: –Metro Manila –Albay Province –Mindanao

Hazard Assessments Multi-hazards: individual hazards collectively Exacerbating effects of land degradation Contextualisation of climate change DRR and CCA Science and indigenous knowledge integration: –Individual/ organisational –Source of science Scale Feedback and evaluation Source: author’s own

Emergent Themes Political vs. natural systems Source: author’s own Source: adapted from wowlegaspi.com

Emergent Themes Political vs. natural systems Source of science Emphasis on disaster response and preparedness Hazards Integration – development planning and water basin management Target audience? –Process –Dialogue Source: author’s own

Process Users Appropriate Intervention Indigenous knowledge Science Vulnerability/ capacity assessment Source? Framework: Defining the system? Multi-level?

The way forward What is the hazard? –Scientific, contextualised, analytical approaches Process: multi-hazard assessment Framework: systems theory –Naturally integrates concepts –Avoids linear, impact oriented approaches –Scenario planning Trial process in the New Year Any Questions?

References Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in Feinstein International Center (FIP) and Humanitarian Futures Programme (HFP) 2010 Humanitarian Horizons: A Practitioners’ Guide to the Future [available online: last accessed: 15/11/10] Christian Aid, Integrating climate change adaptation into secure livelihoods, Adaptation Toolkit 1. International Council for Science (ICSU), A Science Plan for Integrated Research on Disaster Risk Addressing the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards [available online: last accessed: 18/11/10] Allenby, B. (2007). Earth systems engineering management. Environmental Science and Technology 41(23): Hjorth, P. and A. Bagheri (2006). Navigating towards sustainable development: A system dynamics approach. Futures 38(1): Waltner-Toews, D. K., James K.; Marie-E Lister, Nina (2008). The ecosystem approach: complexity, uncertainty, and managing for sustainability. Chichester. Bibliography