POPULATION  POPULATION DISTRIBUTION  MEASURING POPULATION  POPULATION CHANGE  OVERPOPULATION 1

UNIT #2 KEY ISSUES Where is the worlds population distributed? -Where do people live and where do they NOT live -Why some reasons are more/less densely populated Where/Why has the worlds population increased? -Why has it increased so much so recently -Population growth Components and measurements -Population pyramids Why is population increasing at different rates in different countries? -Demographic Transition Model! -Thomas Malthus Why might the world face an overpopulation problem? -What is overpopulation and is it a problem?

THE WORLD TODAY: MORE THAN SEVEN BILLION PEOPLE Global Population today (9/20/2015): 7,274,061,380 More than 50% urban (in or near cities) 90% live north of the equator 90% live on 20% of the earth’s land 80% live at less than 500 m elevation 2 / 3 live within 500 km of an ocean 3

DISTRIBUTION BY LATITUDE 4 Source:

DISTRIBUTION BY LONGITUDE 5 Source:

7 BILLION PEOPLE: DISTRIBUTION 6

GLOBAL POPULATION: 2 / 3 OF THE WORLD IN 4 MAJOR CLUSTERS East Asia More than 1.5 billion people More than 20% of humanity About 20% of humanity in China About 50 % rural South Asia More than 1.5 billion people About 20% of humanity Nearly 20% of humanity in India About 60% rural Southeast Asia About ½ billion people 8% of humanity More than 2 / 3 rural Europe About ¾ billion people 11% of humanity About ¾ urban 7

EAST ASIA Eastern China, Japan, Korean peninsula & Taiwan ¼ World’s Population 5/6 live in PRC China: ½ of population (rural) Japan & Korea 40% live in 3 major cities (Tokyo, Osaka, & Seoul) ¾ Urban and work in industry/service jobs

SOUTH ASIA India, Pakistan, Bangladesh & Sri Lanka ¼ World Population ¾ live in India 68% in rural areas 47% work in Agriculture

EUROPE 3 rd Largest (including European portion of Russia) Includes 37+ countries 1/9 of world population ¾ live in cities > 10% farmers Concentrated near major rivers and coal fields of Belgium and Germany

SOUTHEAST ASIA Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, & Papua New Guinea Largest = Java = 100 million Most work as farmers in rural areas

EMERGING POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA NE U.S. & SE Canada Boston  D.C  Chicago 2% of the world’s population Most urbanized concentration >2% farmers WEST AFRICA West Africa, including south facing coast & Nigeria 2% of the world’s population Nigeria = most populous African nation, ½ of this concentration Most work in agriculture

OTHER CLUSTERS 13  Egypt  West & East Africa  Eastern North America  US West Coast  Highland Mexico  Urban South America & the Caribbean

THE “ECUMENE” The “ecumene” is the inhabited area of the earth. Today, the only areas that aren’t inhabited are those that are too hot, dry, cold or at high elevations. 14

POPULATION DENSITY Density is a measure of “how many per.” The question is – what are we interested in finding out? Different density measures give us different insights, such as: Level of development Type of economy Clues about population growth, health, status of women, overall economy, etc. 15

POPULATION DENSITY 1.Arithmetic Density 2.Physiological Density 3.Agricultural Density

ARITHMETIC DENSITY The total number of people divided by the total land area Pros Easy to compare Cons Tells us “where,” but not “why”

PHYSIOLOGICAL DENSITY The number of people per unit of area of arable land, which is suitable for agriculture Pros More meaningful Cons Higher = more pressure to produce more food

AGRICULTURAL DENSITY The ratio of the number of farmers to the total amount of land suitable for agriculture MDCs Lower agricultural density Fewer farmers, more extensive areas Due to better technology & finances

COMPARISON What does it mean when we have a large difference between arithmetic & physiological density?

DIFFERENT DENSITY MEASURES ARITHMETIC DENSITY (“average density”) (total population)/(total land area) US population = 314,260,309 (August 2012) US land area = 9,161,966 km 2 (314,260,309)/(9,161,966) = 34.3 PHYSIOLOGIC DENSITY (“farmland density”) (total population)/(total arable land area) US population = 314,260,309 US arable land = 1,650,070 km 2 (314,260,309)/(1,650,070) = AGRICULTURAL DENSITY (“farmer density”) (total number of farmers)/(total arable land area) US farmers = 2,199,822 (2009 estimate) US arable land = 1,650,070 km 2 (2,199,822)/(1,650,070) = (data on population, farmers and farmland from the CIA “World Factbook”: and the USDA Economic Research Service: )

DENSITY: COMPARISON TABLE (DATA FROM TEXTBOOK) Arithmetic Density Physiologic Density Agricultural Density% Farmers% Arable CAN 36512%5% USA %18% EGY 802, %3% NTH 4001,748233%22% 22 (data on arable land from the CIA “World Factbook”:

DENSITY: COMPARISONS 23 Arithmetic Density Physiologic Density Agricultural Density people per km 2 people per km 2 of farmland farmers per km 2 of farmland

BASIC POPULATION MEASURES: BIRTH, DEATH & NATURAL INCREASE Crude Birth Rate CBR = (births per year)/(total population) Crude Death Rate CDR = (deaths per year)/(total population) Rate of Natural Increase CBR – CDR = NI Note: The CBR & CDR are usually expressed in per thousand, while NI is usually expressed in percent. 24

CRUDE BIRTH RATES ( ) 25 Created online with the United Nations Environment Programme Environmental Data Explorer:

CRUDE DEATH RATES ( ) 26 Created online with the United Nations Environment Programme Environmental Data Explorer:

THE RUSSIAN PROBLEM In fairness, in 2011, according to the World Health Organization, Russia ranked 4 th in per capita alcohol consumption. The top 5 in order (liters/per person): Moldova 18.22; Czech Republic 16.45; Hungary 16.27; Russia 15.76; and Ukraine The US ranked 57 th (9.44 liters/per person). 27 Source:

RATES OF NATURAL INCREASE 28 Created online with the United Nations Environment Programme Environmental Data Explorer:

POPULATION RATES: TWO EXAMPLES Mexico 2011 (July est., CIA World Factbook) Population: 113,724,226 Births: 2,175,544 Deaths: 552,699 CBR = 2,175,544/ 113,724,226 = 19.13/1,000 CDR = 552,699/ 113,724,226 = 4.86/1,000 NI = – 4.86 = 14.27/1,000 = 1.43% US 2011 (July est., CIA World Factbook) Population: 313,232,044 Births: 4,331,999 Deaths: 2,624,885 CBR = 4,331,999/ 313,232,044 = 13.83/1,000 CDR = 2,624,885/ 313,232,044 = 8.38/1,000 NI = – 8.38 = 5.45/1,000 = 0.55% 29 Note that Mexico’s growth rate is almost 3 times the US rate

DOUBLING TIME: INTEREST 1.$ $10.00 = $ $ $10.00 = $ $ $10.00 = $ $ $10.00 = $ $ $10.00 = $ $ $10.00 = $ $ $10.00 = $ $ $10.00 = $ $ $10.00 = $ $ $11.00 = $ $ $12.10 = $ $ $13.31 = $ $ $14.64 = $ $ $16.10 = $ $ $17.72 = $ $ $19.49 = $ Simple vs. Compound Interest Initial amount: $100 Interest: 10% SimpleCompound At 10% compound interest, the initial amount doubles in less than 8 years.

WORLD POPULATION GROWTH The rate of natural increase declined between 1950 and 2000 – but the number of people added to the world’s population each year has remained fairly steady for about 40 years. Why? Because global population increased from 2.5 billion to over 6 billion during this time period! This is sometimes called “population momentum.” 31 See:

OTHER POPULATION MEASURES Total Fertility Rate (TFR) An estimate of how many children a woman will have during her childbearing years. Assumes women in the future will act exactly as women today do. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) Deaths of infants less than 1 year old, divided by total births per year. (total infant deaths)/(total births) Life Expectancy An estimate of the number of years a child born today can expect to live at current mortality levels. 32

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE 33 Created online with the United Nations Environment Programme Environmental Data Explorer:

INFANT MORTALITY RATE 34 Created online with the United Nations Environment Programme Environmental Data Explorer:

INFANT MORTALITY FIGURES, 2012 The Five Worst: 1.Afghanistan Mali Somalia Cent. Af. Rep Guinea-Bissau94.40 The Five Best: 218.Sweden Singapore Bermuda Japan Monaco  Figures are infant deaths per 1,000 live births.  The US ranks 173 rd, at 6.00/1,000 Data source:

LIFE EXPECTANCY (AT BIRTH) 36 Created online with the United Nations Environment Programme Environmental Data Explorer:

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION Q: Why do the US and Mexico have different rates of natural increase and different fertility rates? Why do these rates change? A: The Demographic Transition The demographic transition is a model of how birth and death rates change Birth and death rates change because of Changes in the economic system Changes in information about health and health care Changes in people’s attitudes about family size 37

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION 38 Source:

STAGE 1 – HIGH FLUCTUATING HIGH CBRHIGH CDR Reasons: High IMR Lack of family planning Need for workers Children are economic assets(support parents) Religious beliefs Roman Catholics Muslims Hindus Reasons: Disease Famine War Poor hygiene & sanitation Lack of healthcare Lack of education

Demographic transition modelPopulation Stage 1. Natural increase (population growth) is low because although there are a lot of births the similarly high number of deaths effectively cancels them out, leaving a low but stable population.

STAGE 2 – EARLY EXPANDING HIGH CBRDECLINING CDR Same reasons as Stage 1 Reasons: Improved healthcare Improved sanitation Improved food production Decreasing IMR Outside stimulus

Demographic transition modelPopulation Stage 2. Natural increase (population growth) is high because there is now a large gap between births and deaths, increasing the population rapidly.

STAGE 3 – LATE EXPANDING DECLINING CBRDECLINING CDR Reasons: Changing status of women Cairo Conference Availability of family planning Lower IMR Increased standard of living Better technology = lower demand for workers Welfare/Retirement Same reasons as Stage 2

Demographic transition modelPopulation Stage 3. Natural increase (population growth) remains high due to the gap between births and deaths but as this stage the increase slows as births and deaths match up again.

STAGE 4…AND 5? STAGE 4 – LOW FLUCTUATING STAGE 5 CBR & CDR are low Population is stable CBR drops below CDR Population starts to decrease Officially only 4 stages Not part of the original DTM, but some geographers have added it So if there is 5, why not 6?

Demographic transition modelPopulation Stage 4. Natural increase (population growth) is again low as births and deaths virtually cancel each other out, but now the population is high..

THE EPIDEMIOLOGIC TRANSITION At different stages of development there are different processes that affect the death rate. Different countries have different levels of technological development – and different health problems. Stage 1: Pestilence & famine (“Black Plague”) Stage 2: Receding pandemics (“Cholera”) Stage 3: Degenerative & human-caused diseases (“heart attack & cancer”) Stage 4: Delayed degenerative diseases (“cardiovascular disease & oncology”) Stage 5: Reemergence of infectious & parasitic diseases (“AIDS,” “SARS,” “TB,” “Ebola,” “Bird Flu,” etc.) 48

POPULATION PYRAMIDS One way of visualizing how a country is changing (and how it may change in the future) is by using a population pyramid, a kind of bar chart that shows the age and sex structure of the population. 49 Source:

POPULATION CHANGES: US PYRAMIDS,

POPULATION CHANGES: JAPAN, : 84 million2000: 127 million2050: 109 million Data Source: Note: in 1960 Japan’s population was the 4 th largest in the world. In 2050 it will be 16 th largest.

POPULATION PYRAMIDS

HOW IT WORKS… Population Pyramid: A bar graph representing the distribution of population by age and sex Males on the left, females on the right Sex Ratio: The number of males per 100 females in the population Youngest on the bottom (0-4), oldest on the top (100+) Age Distribution: The percentage of the population within a country in each age group (broken down into 5-year intervals) Dependency Ratio: The number of people under the age of 15 and over age 64 compared to the number of people active in the work force Generally done as a percentage of the population, sometimes as total numbers Shape of the pyramid is generally shaped by the CBR in a country

ANALYZING PYRAMIDS 1.“features” -Obvious details of what the pyramid looks like -i.e “wide base, small percentage of elderly, etc.” 2. “Demographic characteristics/processes” -Reasons and processes -i.e High CDR and low CBR contribute to slow growth, etc. 54

POPULATION PYRAMIDS & DTM Population Pyramids and the DTM can generally by applied together Certain shapes have been associated with specific stages of the DTM

PYRAMID FOR STAGE 1 Wide base = very high birth rate Narrows very quickly = high death rate Very few reach old age

PYRAMID FOR STAGE 2 Wide base = High birth rate Wider & taller = people living longer

PYRAMID FOR STAGE 3 “Domed” shape = more people living to be older Proportionately fewer births

PYRAMID FOR STAGE 4 Small base, small top Bulge in the middle

ALL FOUR STAGES Concave Profile Convex Profile

SEX RATIOS (MALES PER HUNDRED FEMALES, 2011 ESTIMATE) 12 Highest UAE219 Qatar200 Kuwait154 Bahrain124 Oman122 SaudiArabia118 Palau114 Bhutan110 Jordan110 Pakistan109 India108 China Lowest Estonia84 Djibouti86 Latvia86 Russia86 Ukraine86 Belarus87 Armenia89 Lithuania89 Antigua90 Georgia91 Hungary91 Moldova91 Data Source: Image Source: Global average: 101 males per 100 females

…AND IN INDIA 62 Source: The estimated overall sex ratio for India is 108.

OVERPOPULATION? The only rational way to define over- population is to say that if the population is too great for the local environment to support it, a place is overpopulated. Any other defin- ition is based on cultural values – basically, what you approve of! 63

THOMAS MALTHUS Thomas Malthus ( ), British clergyman and economist. Published An Essay on the Principle of Population in Crucial insight: Population tends to grow faster than the food supply. Population growth can be stopped: FAMINE “MORAL RESTRAINT” Was Malthus right? For people – not so far! “Neomalthusians” vs. “cornucopians” 64

MALTHUS: THEORY VS. REALITY 65

NEO-MALTHUSIANS Neomalthusians – Believe population growth to be a problem and provide the foundation for many antinatalist population policies. Argue that recent growth is worse than Malthus projected 1.Malthus’ theory is almost 200 years old 2.Many LDCs are progressing due to help from MDCs rather than progressing on their own 1.Bigger gap between population & resources 3.World population is outpacing other resources other than just food 1.Environmental destruction 2.Lack of land 3.Non-renewable energy

CORNUCOPIANS… 67 Ester Boserup- Believed that as population Grew, so would human innovation to meet Challenges. More population= more production! Julian Simon- Population growth stimulates economic growth. More people = more brains

COMMIES 68 -Claim no cause and effect relationship exists between population growth and economic development -Poverty, hunger & other social problems are a result of unjust Social and economic structures, not population growth.

DECLINING BIRTH RATES ECONOMIC Improving economic conditions leads to more money on education & healthcare programs CONTRACEPTION Cairo Conference U.N. conference that focused on stabilizing global population at 7.27 billion by giving women greater social & economic control of their lives. Cairo Conference Focus on giving women greater social & economic control Faster than economic changes Governmental choices to distribute contraception Many oppose contraception for religious & political reasons

DECLINING BIRTH RATES 70

HOWEVER… There are some who worry that population won’t decline. They worry that the pattern we see in the US, Japan, etc. is not universal – that not everybody will stop having larger families, that the decline in the TFR can “stall,” and point to countries such as Jordan (with a TFR of 4) or Indonesia (TFR 2.5). Is it possible? Hard to say – the Demographic Transition model has been successful at predicting how populations change – but we can’t be certain it always will be. 71 Source:

REDUCING NATURAL INCREASE The rate of natural increase can only decline if either birth rates decline or death rates increase. Normal people prefer the first – but even this approach is controversial! Reducing birth rates: Economic development Contraception Education Gender Equality 72

CONTRACEPTION 73

CONTRACEPTION CONTROVERSIES 74 Sources:

ALL FOUR STAGES Concave Profile Convex Profile

STAGE 5 76 Demographic characteristics: High total population CBR and CDR very low (~10/1000) Negative NIR = Population decline Features: Wide top because of previously high CBR Narrowed and Narrowing bottom because of lower CBR Population Momentum will assist in the continued decrease in pop. Smaller groups of women coming of child bearing age will continue having smaller amounts of children

WEAKNESSES OF DTM 77 -Based on the experience of industrialised countries --- a country can develop in other ways such as through a tourist industry - The model assumes that the death rate falling in Stage 2 is due to industrial revolutions but this is now more due to medical care improvements etc. -Some countries are developed but have high birth rates –this is due to culture, religion and not evidence of a poor, less developed country - Original model has had to change to include an unexpected Stage 5 clearly seen in Eastern Europe -The model does not take into account the migration of people which is key in understanding population as a system of inputs, population change and outputs. -A model is a representation of reality and not in fact reality- which is way more complex

STAGE 5- EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL 78 Diseases continue to evolve and sometimes re-emerge in Stage 5 countries Relocation diffusion of disease is much more possible for Stage 5 Of the ETM (AIDS, Ebola, TB, etc. from other countries to USA/Europe)