Air Force Weather Agency I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e SPACE WEATHER FOR THE DOD WARFIGHTER: CURRENT OPERATIONS AND PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS AT AFWA Col Patrick M. Condray Commander Air Force Weather Agency Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 2 Roles and Responsibilities DoD Interest in Space Weather The Space Flight at AFWA Current Capabilities Shortfalls Technology Transition and Near Term Projects Future Capabilities Model Coupling The Way Ahead Overview

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 3 Det 1, Learmonth Det 5, Palehua San Vito Det 4, Holloman Det 2, Sag Hill HQ AFWA 2 WS (Space Flight) The AFWA Structure: Space Weather

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 4 Space Characterization Mission: Plan and program for acquisition of ground- based sensing solutions to fulfill DoD space environmental monitoring requirements Develop and maintain the environmental pillar of Space Situational Awareness through observation and modeling 2d Weather Squadron’s Space Flight will provide 24/7 mission-tailored analyses, forecasts, and warnings of system-impacting space weather to DoD and national agency operators, warfighters, and decision-makers Provide backup for our civilian counterpart Space Weather Prediction Center (Boulder, CO) AFWA’s Current Space Weather Responsibilities

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 5  Degraded SATCOM  Dual Frequency GPS Error  Positioning  Navigation  Timing Scintillation  SATCOM Interference  Radar Interference  HF Radio Blackout  Geolocation Errors  Satellite Orbit Decay X-Rays, EUV, Radio Bursts Proton EventsGeomagnetic Storms  High Altitude Radiation Hazards  Spacecraft Damage  Satellite Disorientation  Launch Payload Failure  False Sensor Readings  Degraded HF Comm (high latitudes)  Spacecraft Charging and Drag  Geolocation Errors  Space Track Errors  Launch Trajectory Errors  Radar Interference  Radio Propagation Anomalies  Power Grid Failures Space Weather Warfighter Impacts

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 6 WOXX56 KGWC SUBJECT: AFWA EVENT WARNING REPORT ISSUED AT 0802Z 20 JAN 2005 PART A. SOLAR RADIATION DOSAGE EVENT (UPDATE): A SOLAR PROTON EVENT IS IN PROGRESS. BELOW IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM RADIATION IN MILLIREMS BASED ON THE GOES SPACECRAFT PROTON MONITORS. YOU WILL RECEIVE AN UPDATE EVERY HOUR OR WHENEVER ONE OF THE CATEGORIES BELOW IS CROSSED. THE CURRENT RADIATION DOSE CALCULATION AS OF 0701Z IS 212 MREMS. CATEGORIES ARE: GREEN = LESS THAN 10 MREMS YELLOW = 10 – 99 MREMS RED = 100 OR GREATER MREMS PART B. N/A PART C. REMARKS: ISSUED BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY, OFFUTT AFB, NE. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR REQUIRE FURTHER\ INFORMATION, CALL THE DUTY FORECASTER AT DSN , COMMERCIAL INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED AT UNDER THE SPACE WEATHER LINK. FORECASTERS: Bauman/ Otero Warnings Geomagnetic Activity Solar Event, Flare, Radio Burst Energetic Particle/Charging Short Wave Fade Specification & Forecast Ionosphere Magnetosphere Solar Wind Products Radar Auroral Clutter HF Illumination GPS Error HF/UHF Point-to-Point Ap/F10 Forecast Anomaly Assessments UHF SATCOM Scintillation Mitigation of Impacts

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 7 Specification starts with collecting remote and in-situ data Ground-based: Includes solar (optical & radio), ionosondes, magnetometers, GPS, SCINDA, and neutron monitors Space-based: Includes DMSP, LANL, GOES, POES, ACE, SOHO, STEREO Data from many government and non- government sources Data partnerships are crucial Note that we do leverage and rely on R&D missions as data sources (e.g. ACE, SOHO, STEREO) Current Capabilities Observations

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 8 Current Capabilities Ionospheric Modeling Large Scale: Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model: Initial capability Dec 06 – Specification emphasized Specification every 15 min; 24 hour forecast capability Multiple data types (TEC, ionosondes, DMSP in-situ densities) critical to high fidelity output Better output with more data to assimilate and wider data coverage, especially in data sparse regions Scintillation Scale: WBMOD & SCINDA Climatology conditioned by location, time and a global disturbance index with SCINDA data Auroral Oval: Auroral Boundary Enhancement completed May 06 Combination of OVATION and Hardy models Specification and 1 hour forecast

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 9 Current Capabilities: Magnetospheric Modeling Three models provide 1 st generation capability to specify required particle energies (largely conditional climatology) Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM), inner/middle magnetosphere 100 eV-100 keV ions and electrons Specification of fluxes, electric and magnetic fields 3 hour prediction based on neural networks Standoff distance, Dst, equatorward edge of aurora used to determine B-field configuration New fluence products based on longitude and energy Relativistic Electron Prediction (REP), geosynchronous MeV and >2 MeV energy electrons Prediction out to 27 days New fluence products combining past observations and predicted values MSFM REP

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 10 Radiation Belt Environment (RBE), radiation belts 10 keV-5 MeV electrons, 10keV-1MeV protons Specification only, 2-10 R E Based on Fok Radiation Belt-Ring Current model Future plans to drive with forecasted solar wind data for 24 hr predictive capability FY08 Task will be to define the way ahead for a next generation capability c.2010 Current Capabilities: Magnetospheric Modeling RBE

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 11 The Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) kinematic solar wind model implemented Sep 06 5-day forecast of solar wind with event driven capability Critical to efforts to forecast changes in magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere conditions Limitations: Non-MHD – no IMF orientation Not coupled – gray matter fusion Not net-centric friendly Current Capabilities Solar Wind Modeling

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 12 While the Space Flight has considerable capability, the 4-D data cube has not been fully realized AFWA lacks predictive models for several domains Much modeling capability is based on conditional climatology driven by global indices… Need to move to physics-based modeling and data assimilation as technology allows Many domains are severely under sampled Some shortfalls driven by a lack of basic research understanding AFWA utilizes an aggressive technology transition process to combat these shortfalls Partnerships are again crucial Shortfalls

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 13 Maturing the model through assimilation of additional data sources DMSP UV data integration in Jan 2008 GUVI UV data integration in Dec 2008 COSMIC RO and UV data integration in 2009 Follow-on “full physics” upgrade planned for 2010 Developing an interactive HF Point-to-point application using output from GAIM Future Capabilities

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 14 JMSESS database AFW starting on the creation of a number of net-centric Joint-METOC databases XML-based, discoverable, uses Joint METOC Broker Language Space Weather Segment in development Develop real-time space weather metrics program Gauge model performance, impact to the warfighter Identify biases, shortfalls Identify deficiencies to support advocacy for additional funding Future Capabilities

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 15 Ultimate goal: unified modeling system from Sun to Earth Battlespace Environments Institute (BEI) DoD-funded initiative to couple environmental models (GAIM and HAF) Beta delivery expected in early 2009 for December integration Follow-on projects involve using ensemble techniques to quantify uncertainties Coupling Efforts

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 16 Communicate impacts to warfighters through tailored products Document operational capabilities through metrics to validate/verify models and prioritize targeted improvements Maturing our ionospheric modeling capability through model upgrades and additional data sets Continue with additions of targeted capabilities to provide warfighter-focused products Partnerships (as seen with GAIM) will continue to be crucial to the enhancement of operation support Way Ahead