Changes in Rural America- Does it Matter? Dr. Cathann Kress Vice President for Extension & Outreach

Trends to Discuss Iowa as a Case Study- are we similar or different than other rural areas? Getting Older but not that simple Where’s the Labor? Becoming more diverse but not that simple The Real Story

A snapshot 1900 – 74% of Iowans were rural 1990 – 39% of Iowans were rural That trend has accelerated since This is even more pronounced when you look at the county level.

Population trends

Population Natural Gain and Loss

Population Migration

Getting Older but not that simple

Youth Distribution Where are Iowa Youth?

Population Pyramids

Where is the Labor?

Rural Workforce Gap

Becoming more diverse but not that simple

Less Diverse, but Growing Rural areas less diverse than metros, but are catching up. Metro Iowa less diverse than peers. Rural Iowa about the same. Rural diversity dependent on economic cycles. Hispanics dominate in rural areas, non-whites in metros.

Demographic Shifts

The Changing Face of Iowa Source: State of Iowa Data Center African American Latinos in Iowa & African Americans in Iowa 2013

Group Net Change Total Population 476,927 -4,319 White430,677 (90.3%) 377,238 (79.8%) -53,439 Am Indian/Alaska2,447(.5%)2,034 (.5%) -413 Latino17,019 (2%)43,979 (9.3%) +26,960 African American 18,510 (3.9%) 24,621 (5.2%) +6,111 Asian American/PI 8,274 (1.7%)10,228 (2.2%) +1,954 Kids of Color 46,250(9.7%) (20.2%) +44,423 ELL 3.2%5% About 70% speak Spanish (next Vietnamese at 3%) Iowa State Public Schools Student Enrollment Source: Iowa Department of Education Growth Of Youth of Color in Iowa Schools 32,255 = Number of students in Private Schools (12% of Color) 4,295 = Number of Immigrant Students (Student Not born in US in SY )

Less Diverse, but Growing

The Real Story Rural Poverty

Low Socio-Economic Status

January 2015 What people say isn't always what they mean. It's more productive to watch what they do.

Poverty Amid Plenty Poverty Paradox – high incomes yet rising poverty … MHHI higher than in s, yet rising poverty. The distribution of income rather than the aggregate amount!

Missing Middle Classes … Lower classes saw large income losses – cause of poverty. Middle classes also became poorer, but “near poor”. Upper classes saw income gains – cause of high MHHIs.

Poverty Amid Plenty Poverty on the rise … Poverty falling since 1970s, with large drop in the 1990s. However, recessions of 2000s wiped away these gains. Great Recession of 2008 hit hard … Worse than farm and manufacturing crises of the 1980s. Metros fared worse (housing & finance) than rural (farm economy).

S T A T E D A T A C E N T E R O F I O W A

Iowa Change in the Achievement/Opportunity Gap Since 2002 (Percent that meets or exceeds performance standard) White 80 % (in 2002) Black 49% Black 49% Latino 57.3% Latino 57.3% 4 th Grade Reading Proficiency Kids in Poverty 61.4% Source: IDE Test Changed

Poverty Amid Plenty

Bottom Line Across the United States, more than 50% of rural counties have seen population decline. Rural America accounts for nearly 75% of the land area of the United States but only 16% of the population- the lowest in our nation’s history. Poverty rates average 17% higher in rural areas than metropolitan even with a strong agricultural economy Access to key resources (health care, education) is unequal Some areas are prospering either due to amenities or industry (North Dakota) but mostly fewer opportunities

Does it matter? Rural is tied to natural resources and their stewardship. Rural America is over-represented in military service (over 40%). Rural America will become less relevant and influential in political decision-making (Sec. Vilsack) –More than 80% of lawmakers are not representing rural areas

Some suggestions Regionalism or Localism Amenity-Based Development Value-Added Production