Security & Cooperation

Recent Security Threats

21 st Century Security 9/11 (2001) War on Terror ◦ Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003) North Korea ◦ Concerns Concerns ◦ UN Resolution 2270 passed 3/2/16passed 3/2/16 ¤

21 st Century Security Arab Spring Arab Spring Syria ◦ Assad regime

21 st Century Security Jihadism- ‘ struggle ’ Islamic extremists ◦ al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas ◦ al-Shabab- Somalia ◦ Boko Haram- Nigeria, bordering states  ‘Against Western education’ Islamic State (IS) ◦ Iraq, Syria, Libya Ivory Coast ◦ Numerous attacks ¤

21 st Century Security Ebola epidemic Zika threat Ukraine ◦ Crimea annexed ◦ Eastern revolt ¤

Soviet Empire  15 Countries

History Repeating Itself? Rising Soviet Union Munich Conference ◦ Sudetenland ◦ Appeasement Policy  Concerns Neville Chamberlain ‘appeasing’ Hitler, 1938

Post-CW Era and NATO Why is the Baltic situation compared to the Sudetenland? Native-speaking Russians ◦ Estonia = 25% ◦ Latvia = 27% ◦ Lithuania = 6% - but– Kaliningrad factor Fear annex by Russia to protect ‘local’ population ◦ Russia  Ukraine (Crimea annex)  Latvian Russians support annexation (2 in 3) ◦ Poland also concerned Want EU, NATO to do more ◦ Tougher sanctions ◦ Need alternative gas supply ¤

SECURITY CHALLENGES

Increase in Arms Transfers Cold War, post-CW ◦ More weapons in circulation UNSC P5 + 1 ◦ Top arms sales countries in 2014 UN ATT proposal RankSupplierArms exports sales 1 United States$10.2 b 2 Russia$597 m 3 China$197 m 4 France$120 m 5 Germany$110 m, 6 United Kingdom$10.8 m ; data from

Increase in Severity: Technology Saudis use cluster bombs in Yemen Saudis use cluster bombs in Yemen

Focus, Frequency Change in focus of security ◦ Guns and bombs  human security Increase in frequency ◦ Decolonization ◦ Civil unrest

Consequences of Conflict: Syria History More than 4m have fled Syria 66,000 fled in one day into TurkeyTurkey ¤

Consequences of Conflict: Syria

Consequences of Conflict a Syrian refugee camp in Jordan for 600,000+ people

Consequences of Conflict What are the int’l consequences of conflict? ◦ Spill-over effect ◦ Creates hostilities ◦ Interferes with trade ◦ Forestalls development ◦ Emigration ◦ Intervention issues ¤

THREATS

Int’l Terrorism What is terrorism? ◦ Instill terror in civilians ◦ Reaction to perceived threats  Colonization, westernization Int’l terrorism ◦ Organize, attack across borders  al-Qaeda, IS ◦ State-sponsored terrorism  Rwanda (Tutsi)  M23 Congo rebels  Iran (Shia)  Hezbollah, Houthis ¤

Domestic Terrorism Objectives ◦ Attention ◦ Challenge gov’t ◦ Independence  Basques- Eta Is domestic opposition terrorism?  Freedom fighters v. terrorists ¤ Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK)

Additional Threats Transnational crime ◦ Traffic drugs, humans, weapons, etc. Cyber attacks ◦ Target infrastructure ◦ Steal data Piracy ¤

Piracy Article Piracy Article How has piracy around Africa changed over the last few years? Government ◦ Somalia- failed state ◦ Nigeria- corruption  Targets often involved Area of seizure ◦ Somalia- int’l waters ◦ Nigeria- coastal Much more violent ◦ S- Hostages for ransom ◦ N- Stealing goods ¤

Piracy Article Piracy Article Why do people turn to piracy? GS economic issues ◦ Somalia- very poor ◦ Nigeria- oil; funding campaigns; illegal, and terrorist activities How do int’l efforts differ in east and west Africa? ◦ UNSC ◦ Regional IGOs ◦ Lack resources ◦ East more trafficked ◦ East int’l waters ¤

SECURITY THROUGH COOPERATION

Collective Security Bilateral China in SCS US response- Sell arms to Vietnam Multilateral Regional IGOs ◦ NATO, African Union Global IGOs  INTERPOL  UN ¤

Arms Reduction Pacts Antipersonnel Mine Treaty  161 signed- U.S., Russia, China didn’t  U.S.  sign w/ Korea exception UN Arms Trade Treaty Nuclear, chemical, biological conventions ¤

Combatting Terrorism How do charcoal exports support terrorism in Somalia? Supply Unique charcoal to offer al-Shabab takes a cut ◦ Impose ‘taxes’ ◦ ‘Shareholders’ Lack of UN export ban enforcement ◦ Import weapons from Yemen Demand Gulf states – shisha lounges Ignore UN ban ¤

Combatting Terrorism How can cooperation curb exports? African Union, Somali troops capture Barawe ◦ Located to smaller port in Kismayo Use anti-piracy forces to stop, search vessels Get importers to comply with UN sanctions ¤

Recap Security Challenges Threats Security through cooperation ¤