Driving Disease How are infectious pathogens an increasing threat to biodiversity? Alexander S. Rose

Outline Disease: wildlife extinctions Ecology: interacting forces Solutions: conservation action

Lack of spotlight 3.7% past animal extinctions (Smith et al 2006) 8% current ‘Critically Endangered’ (Smith et al 2006) Q.66 – how to best manage infectious diseases (Sutherland et al 2009)

Epidemiological scenarios RISK OF EXTINCTION? NO Density-dependence = pathogen ‘fade-outs’ YES Small host populations Frequency-dependence Reservoir hosts

Interactive drivers Cunningham et al 2003, MEA 2005: “Pathogen-pollution” Habitat change Climate change Over- exploitation Introduced species Environmental Pollution DISEASE

Aim YES Small host populations Frequency-dependence Reservoir hosts Habitat change Climate change Introduced species

Habitat change Mexican bighorn sheep response to epizootics (Cassigne et al 2010) Initial Population (N) Mortality (%) Bighorn epizootics Long-term persistence min. pop. ≥188 Initial Population Expected mortality % Estimated remaining

Climate change Temperature °C R0R0 Week Response to 1.5°C avg. warming ( Harvell 2002)

Temperature-sensitive pathogens Increased vector transmission with warming (Harvell et al 2002)

Introductions & non-natives SQPV – red squirrel, UK (Rushton et al 2005) CDV – African wild dogs Masai Mara (Alexander et al 1994) Globalisation Urban interface Wildlife trade

Bd chytrid fungus CITES amphibian records =IMP =EXP

WHY NOW?

Fungi forecast Fisher et al, Nature 2012

Ambiguous data? Crisis-based Sampling bias Lack of baseline Confounding evidence Correlation vs. causation Sir Austin Bradford Hill

Where has conservation worked? Ethiopian wolves Geo-targeted vaccination Low-coverage, low cost (Haydon, Nature 2006) R 0 map - Rabies

ACTION Science: surveillance Policy: trade restrictions & regulations Conservation: ‘strategy suite’ Vaccinate hubs? e.g. badger social network + bTB (Weber 2013)

Summary Q: How are infectious pathogens an increasing threat to biodiversity? A: MULTIPLE SYNGERGISTIC DRIVERS Closer proximities Favourable conditions Compound sources