Hsueh-Hong(Constance)Wang Visiting Scholar Sigur Center for Asian Studies Elliott School of International Studies The George Washington University Thursday, December 5, 2013

 Stands for Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement  12 negotiation partners across Asia-Pacific region  Originated from P-4:  Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, Brunei(2006)  US, Australia, Peru, Vietnam(2008)  Malaysia(2010)  Mexico, Canada(2012)  Japan(2013)  Taiwan(?)

Current TPP members

 We are delighted to have achieved this milestone in our common vision to establish a comprehensive, next generation regional agreement that liberalizes trade and investment and addresses new and traditional trade issues and 21st-century challenges.

 29 chapters/similar structure to recent US FTAs:  Market access in goods and services  Rules: government procurement, foreign investment, technical barriers to trade, trade remedies, SPS measures, IPRs, environmental protection, labor..  Cross-cutting issues: regulatory coherence, competitiveness, business facilitation, small and medium-sized companies, SOEs..

 Aiming to conclude the negotiation by the end of 2013  is one of the most significant trade blocs globally  TPP % of world GDP: 39.0% (2012)(US$28,136.0 billion )  TPP % of world population: 11.3% (2012)(792.8 million)  TPP % of world trade: 25.8% (2012)

US plays a leading role: -revitalizing its economy  TPP members -represent a $1.7 trillion trading relationship for the US -Account for 45% of US exports If concluded: further expand its export market and support growth of its economy

 TPP also serves several strategic goals for US -the economic element of its “rebalancing toward Asia” -affirms its engagement in the region -shape the region’s trade and investment rules and norms

 Taiwan is a major trading nation which exports of goods and services accounts for 74% of its GDP  Five of Taiwan’s top ten export destinations are TPP parties % of Taiwan’s total trade

 Expand market access  as an external driver of domestic economic reform  Diversify its market which is overly dependent on China  a means to counter South Korea's proactive free trade agreement strategy

Strengths  Geopolitical importance -situated in the first chain of islands -Taiwan Strait serves as an indispensable route to all Asian countries

Sound economic performance -27 th largest economy with annual GDP of 747 billion and the 7 th largest in Asia -close business ties with current TPP parties- Five of top ten export destinations are TPP parties, representing 40.1% of Taiwan’s total trade

business sector known for its competitiveness in ICT manufacturing -an integral part the global supply chain, Include Taiwan in TPP would strengthens and further enables the production networks -With ECFA in place, TPP member can use Taiwan as a gateway to the Greater China market

 -structural economic problems  -disruptive domestic politics  -the leader is lack of political capital to invest in promoting TPP  -sectoral interest over national interest as a whole

 China factor  Limited FTAs  The future of TPP  standing trade issues with TPP parties

-TPP is open to all APEC economies -ANZTEC and ASTEP in place may help pave the way to TPP -Japan expresses its support for Taiwan’s bid -key members in the US Congress voice their support -China expresses its interest in joining TPP

 Rejuvenate the bilateral economic ties  Taiwan shares the common values of freedom, democracy, rule of law and market-oriented economy  can fulfill its commitment of “the US would remain committed to a strong relationship with Taiwan, an important security and economic partner” - without Taiwan would be a missing link in TPP, US should go beyond the economic façade and weigh in on the political calculation

 Domestically-need desicive leadership and skill Make joining TPP a more urgent priority -several actions need to be taken:  roll out economic roadmap (including tackle thorny trade issues)  Better Communicating with stakeholders  Build up consensus among parties Ratify the Cross-Strait Service Pact-send a signal to TPP partners that Taiwan is ready

Trumpet the cause- Announce its will to join right after TPP is concluded-among the first of late comers With US -convince the US it’s in its interest for Taiwan to join TPP and US should facilitate it. With Other TPP members: -Kick off bilateral consultations- confidence-building measures

 TPP is vital for Taiwan to keep up pace with its regional competitors by expanding its market beyond dependence on China  It’s in the US interest to help Taiwan to join.  US should demonstrate its political determination to “take on the cause”.  Taiwan need to restore TPP members’ confidence by tackling standing trade issues.

 It takes efforts from both Taiwan and US to work-  As soon as Taiwan signals its determination, US should respond reciprocally in a timely fashion to facilitate Taiwan’s accession

 Cause baby, There ain't no mountain high enough Ain't no valley low enough Ain't no river wide enough To keep me from getting to you Remember the day I set you free I told you You could always count on me From that day on I made a vow I'll be there when you want me Some way,some how

Thank you!