NCEP Production Suite Review 2015 Eastern Region

What are biggest challenges Boundary layer issues Boundary layer issues Temperature, moisture (GFS, RAP/HRRR)Temperature, moisture (GFS, RAP/HRRR) Convective potentialConvective potential Snow coverSnow cover Data to support communication of uncertainty Data to support communication of uncertainty

Does current production suite help with challenges No – need solutions for BL issues No – need solutions for BL issues Uncertainty issue is primarily a dissemination issue? Uncertainty issue is primarily a dissemination issue? More of an "end-to-end delivery" issue than a "production" issueMore of an "end-to-end delivery" issue than a "production" issue Ensemble-based probabilitiesEnsemble-based probabilities

Amount of guidance The real issue is getting the best or optimal data to suit needs (current forecast process). Examples: The real issue is getting the best or optimal data to suit needs (current forecast process). Examples: Limited data from GEFSLimited data from GEFS Not able to take advantage of SREF and SSEONot able to take advantage of SREF and SSEO Limited access to post-processed data from RAP/HRRRLimited access to post-processed data from RAP/HRRR Innovative post-processed products slow to get to field. Examples: Innovative post-processed products slow to get to field. Examples: Simulated satellite and radar dataSimulated satellite and radar data

What models and products are needed in the next 1-2 years Availability of high resolution model and ensemble data Availability of high resolution model and ensemble data More agile way of getting new fields out of testbeds into operations (R2O), e.g., BL fields More agile way of getting new fields out of testbeds into operations (R2O), e.g., BL fields Address GFS and RAP/HRRR issues Address GFS and RAP/HRRR issues Improved RTMA/URMA Improved RTMA/URMA

What models and products are needed in the long term Difficult to answer; however, this is the most important question Difficult to answer; however, this is the most important question The need is to support a next generation forecast process The need is to support a next generation forecast process Develop a coherent plan that provides data to an integrated field structureDevelop a coherent plan that provides data to an integrated field structure Develop ensemble systems to address DSS and WRN needsDevelop ensemble systems to address DSS and WRN needs

Defining the next generation forecast process A comprehensive and holistic plan – a unifying approach A comprehensive and holistic plan – a unifying approach Plan would encompass: Plan would encompass: Probabilistic forecastingProbabilistic forecasting Roles of field, regions, national centersRoles of field, regions, national centers Linkage of model production and disseminationLinkage of model production and dissemination The forecast process forms the driver for: The forecast process forms the driver for: Tools needed to add value to model output (man/machine mix)Tools needed to add value to model output (man/machine mix) Addressing WRN Roadmap issues of “evolving the forecast process” and “forecaster-over- the-loop”Addressing WRN Roadmap issues of “evolving the forecast process” and “forecaster-over- the-loop”

Suggestion As an outgrowth of the NCEP Review: As an outgrowth of the NCEP Review: Organize a series of focused discussion sessions on model, analysis, product, and dissemination needs to support an integrated field structure and a next generation forecast processOrganize a series of focused discussion sessions on model, analysis, product, and dissemination needs to support an integrated field structure and a next generation forecast process Participants would include key players from all parts of NWSParticipants would include key players from all parts of NWS Outcomes would lead to a well defined path forwardOutcomes would lead to a well defined path forward