22 April 2008 Josh Floyd Strategic Foresight Program Australian Graduate School of Entrepreneurship Faculty of Business and Enterprise Swinburne University of Technology Melbourne, Australia “How to foresight?” MiMeR / Boliden Foresight Seminar Luleå, Sweden

Background questions 1.What is foresight? What does it have to do with recycling? 2.Why should I speak to you about this?

My history at Rönnskär here (off the official map!) History with Boliden (a look back before looking forward)

My office at Rönnskär

Engineering career with Ausmelt Here it is a little warmer than my office at Rönnskär

Deeper history…a long way back now An early Sirosmelt demonstration plant—small enough to fit on the back of this truck—c (the slightly taller person in the photo is David Conochie – some of you may know him)

Social context of technology

Q: Why do we want this technology in the first place?

Social context of technology Q: Why do we want this technology in the first place? A:1. “X thousand tpa”

Social context of technology Q: Why do we want this technology in the first place? A:1. “X thousand tpa” 2. “Stop bothering us with these irrelevant questions (The poor fellow must be a little simple)”

Strategic foresight and sustainability

Master of Science (Strategic Foresight) [now Master of Management (Strategic Foresight)]

Strategic foresight and sustainability Master of Science (Strategic Foresight) [now Master of Management (Strategic Foresight)] In Sweden there is also a history of encouraging people to ask strange questions, at Lund University

What is foresight?

Strategic foresight – 3 layers of collective capacity:

What is foresight? Strategic foresight – 3 layers of collective capacity: 1.Concepts and language for thinking together about future 2.Methodologies and tools for creating forward view 3.Embedded processes for linking forward view with decisions and action in the present

From strategic foresight to social foresight What ends are served?

From strategic foresight to social foresight What ends are served? Strategic foresight: “What is good for our particular organisation?”

From strategic foresight to social foresight What ends are served? Strategic foresight: “What is good for our particular organisation?” Social foresight: “What is good for humanity, other species and the planet?

What relevance for metals recycling?

Technical know-how alone doesn’t ensure widespread recycling practices

What relevance for metals recycling? Technical know-how alone doesn’t ensure widespread recycling practices Compare E-waste processing in Sweden in 1992 with Australia in 2008: Australia sends est. 1.6M PCs to landfill each year

What relevance for metals recycling? Technical know-how alone doesn’t ensure widespread recycling practices Compare E-waste processing in Sweden in 1992 with Australia in 2008: Australia sends est. 1.6M PCs to landfill each year Differences in social arrangements, politics and cultural norms, not in technological know how

How to foresight?

Simple view: “foresight is an individual talent” In ancient times: oracles and fortune tellers In modern times: genius forecasters e.g. Herman Kahn, Alvin Toffler, “Megatrends” by John Naisbitt

How to foresight? Philosophical foundations Advanced view: “foresight culture can be grown in organisations”

How to foresight? Philosophical foundations Advanced view: “foresight culture can be grown in organisations” Strength of culture depends on philosophical foundations

How to foresight? Philosophical foundations Advanced view: “foresight culture can be grown in organisations” Strength of culture depends on philosophical foundations Three basic principles (adapted from futurist Roy Amara):

How to foresight? Philosophical foundations Advanced view: “foresight culture can be grown in organisations” Strength of culture depends on philosophical foundations Three basic principles (adapted from futurist Roy Amara): 1.The future is not predetermined

How to foresight? Philosophical foundations Advanced view: “foresight culture can be grown in organisations” Strength of culture depends on philosophical foundations Three basic principles (adapted from futurist Roy Amara): 1.The future is not predetermined 2.The future is not predictable

How to foresight? Philosophical foundations Advanced view: “foresight culture can be grown in organisations” Strength of culture depends on philosophical foundations Three basic principles (adapted from futurist Roy Amara): 1.The future is not predetermined 2.The future is not predictable 3.The future can be influenced by individual decisions and actions

Three modes of futures thinking and practice ModeAimMethodologiesRecycling questions Predictive“Know THE future”; identify most PROBABLE future Forecasting“What materials separation technology will be required for car body recycling in 10 years?” AnticipatoryPre-empt multiple POSSIBLE futures Environmental scanning and scenario analysis “How might metals recycling be effected by greater use of bio-materials or bio- processing technologies?” NormativeImagine, define and create PREFERRED futures Visioning and design “What role for metals recycling in society of being needs rather than having needs?”

Three modes of futures thinking and practice ModeAimMethodologiesRecycling questions Predictive“Know THE future”; identify most PROBABLE future Forecasting“What materials separation technology will be required for car body recycling in 10 years?” AnticipatoryPre-empt multiple POSSIBLE futures Environmental scanning and scenario analysis “How might metals recycling be effected by greater use of bio-materials or bio- processing technologies?” NormativeImagine, define and create PREFERRED futures Visioning and design “What role for metals recycling in society of being needs rather than having needs?”

Three modes of futures thinking and practice ModeAimMethodologiesRecycling questions Predictive“Know THE future”; identify most PROBABLE future Forecasting“What materials separation technology will be required for car body recycling in 10 years?” AnticipatoryPre-empt multiple POSSIBLE futures Environmental scanning and scenario analysis “How might metals recycling be affected by greater use of bio-materials or bio- processing technologies?” NormativeImagine, define and create PREFERRED futures Visioning and design “What role for metals recycling in society of being needs rather than having needs?”

Three modes of futures thinking and practice ModeAimMethodologiesRecycling questions Predictive“Know THE future”; identify most PROBABLE future Forecasting“What materials separation technology will be required for car body recycling in 10 years?” AnticipatoryPre-empt multiple POSSIBLE futures Environmental scanning and scenario analysis “How might metals recycling be affected by greater use of bio-materials or bio- processing technologies?” NormativeImagine, define and create PREFERRED futures Visioning and design “What role for metals recycling in society of being needs rather than having needs?”

In case the last question sounds irrelevant for your work… …here is the book that prompted the question (page 45)

Foresight—integrating the three modes Foresight practice draws on all three modes of futures thinking:

Foresight—integrating the three modes Foresight practice draws on all three modes of futures thinking: Forecasting provides basic inputs

Foresight—integrating the three modes Foresight practice draws on all three modes of futures thinking: Forecasting provides basic inputs But to be useful, forecasting requires reflection on how our assumptions about the world shape what seems to be happening

Foresight—integrating the three modes Foresight practice draws on all three modes of futures thinking: Forecasting provides basic inputs But to be useful, forecasting requires reflection on how our assumptions about the world shape what seems to be happening Look inside to understand what is really happening

Integrating the three modes Emphasis on weaving together anticipatory and normative modes: What might happen in our future environment? Our preferred futures Focuses and directs “organs of anticipation” Shapes where we would like to go

Integrating the three modes Emphasis on weaving together anticipatory and normative modes: What might happen in our future environment? Our preferred futures Focuses and directs “organs of anticipation” Shapes where we would like to go navigation

Navigation characteristics Navigation of human activity systems characterised by: Real-time sensing Continuous adaptation Response-ability Intentional innovation

Fundamental principles of foresighting Four fundamental principles:

Fundamental principles of foresighting Four fundamental principles: 1.Collaboration, participation, integration of diverse perspectives

Fundamental principles of foresighting Four fundamental principles: 1.Collaboration, participation, integration of diverse perspectives 2.Continuous process – cannot be switched on and off

Fundamental principles of foresighting Four fundamental principles: 1.Collaboration, participation, integration of diverse perspectives 2.Continuous process – cannot be switched on and off 3.Action-oriented: better decisions and more effective actions in present

Fundamental principles of foresighting Four fundamental principles: 1.Collaboration, participation, integration of diverse perspectives 2.Continuous process – cannot be switched on and off 3.Action-oriented: better decisions and more effective actions in present 4.Look within: know our own ways of knowing – exterior transformation flows from interior transformation

Benefits of foresighting In a global environment of increasingly complex interconnection, successful enaction of these principles and practices will lead to greater sustainability by: Conserving what is valued from the past and present and Innovating to create new value in the future