COOSA-NORTH GEORGIA REGIONAL WATER PLANNING COUNCIL Water Demand Forecasting: Energy Update May 4, 2016 NGWRP Meeting CH2M

Water Planning Process

Regional WDCP Review and Revision Process Initial 5-Year Review Process will focus on: Updated water demand and wastewater forecasts Updated Surface Water and Ground Water Availability Resource Assessments (Quantity) Updated Surface Water Quality / Assimilative Capacity Resource Assessment Refinement of Management Practices, if needed, to address water resource gaps

Review and Revisions Process Schedule

WATER DEMAND FORECASTS

Water Demand Forecasting Incorporates the primary key water use sectors: – Municipal – Industrial – Agricultural – Energy 6

Projecting Municipal Water Demand Updated Municipal Water Need with Adjustment Factor Base Year Per Capita Water Demand Future Population Updated Water Need Per Capita Adjustment Factor Updated Population Projections Round 2 Approach

Regional Water Demand Forecast WATER DEMAND FORECASTS

Industrial Water Demand Forecasting Water is needed for industrial processes, sanitation, cooling and some domestic (employee) use Water need is linked to production Employment is linked to production Updates of employment data are not available, therefore industrial forecasts are not being updated at this time EPD recommends maintaining Round 1 estimates of industrial water & wastewater forecasts Regional Councils are encouraged to review Round 1 projections and identify any significant changes that may have occurred

Industrial Water Demand Forecasting EPD Permit Database Query by Industry, Region, Basin (Aquifer) Current Industry Water Need within Region and Basin * * Or Aquifer Large Industrial Municipal Customers Round 1 industrial forecasts retained

2050 Regional Industrial Water Demand (MGD)

Agricultural Water Use Forecasts Update current water use estimates based same methods used for estimates Animal Agriculture – Head per county x Water needs per head – Data sources: GA Farm Gate Survey, USDA NASS Horticultural Sector – Area per county (nursery/greenhouse) x Water needs per unit area – Data sources: GA Farm Gate Survey Crop Irrigation (wetted acreage mapping) – Detailed mapping – Desktop survey – Review source assumptions

NGWRP Ag Water Study vs. Current Demand Analysis

ENERGY WATER FORECASTS

Round 1 - Thermoelectric Power Facilities in Georgia with Water Withdrawal Permits

Round 1 - Energy Forecasting Methodology Estimated future energy demand in megawatt hours (MWh) based on the historic trends of energy use. Developed a list of all power generating facilities in the state with their corresponding total generating capacity. Developed water use estimates of water withdrawal and water consumption by 5 configurations of fuel type, prime mover and cooling system. A maximum sustainable generating capacity was identified by the Ad Hoc group for each of the 5 configurations Compared the aggregate generating capacity of all existing (and facilities expected to be on line by 2017) with the estimate of statewide future energy demand.

Water Use Factors by Generating Combination

Round 2 - Energy Forecasting Methodology Estimated energy needs using new population projections Estimated energy water needs for two scenarios: – Baseline Scenario: expected energy needs based on regression analysis and population projection – High Energy Demand Scenario: the standard error from the regression analysis is used to estimate the 95% upper limit (high demand)

Round 2 - Energy Forecasting Methodology

Assumed hydropower and biomass power generation will remain constant As suggested by the GA Power IRP, solar and wind power will contribute an additional 525 MW every 5 years. New facilities are more water efficiency generating configurations. Mainly coal-fired facilities with once-through cooling have been either taken off line, retired, or converted to more efficiency generating configurations. Round 2 - Energy Forecasting Methodology (cont.)

Water withdrawal requirements and water consumption rates (gallons per MWh) were multiplied by the power generation (MWh) of each power generating configuration to estimate the withdrawal and consumptive use. Estimated water withdrawals and consumptive use were allocated among the regions, watersheds and nodes based on their known location. Round 2 - Energy Forecasting Methodology (cont.)

One major power generating facility in the Coosa-North Georgia region (Plant Hammond in Floyd County) Coosa-North Georgia Expected Growth MGD Withdrawal Consumption00 High Growth Withdrawal Consumption00

Next Steps Minor update to the municipal water use forecasts based on revised per capita use data Finalize the agricultural use forecasts Compare total water use forecasts to the resources assessments to identify “gaps” Update management practices Revise the regional water plan