First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 1 International Workshop on FORESIGHT Bucharest, Romania – January 26, 2004 SWOT analysis Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats Rafael Popper Research Associate

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 2 Outline Commonly used foresight methods The SWOT analysis Why SWOT? Origins of SWOT Criteria for SWOT History matters… Starters for SWOT discussion Questions (5 minutes) Exercise & discussions (30 minutes)

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 3 Commonly used methods… QUALITATIVE QUANTITATIVE STEEPV - BRAINSTORMING SWOT & SCANNING CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS SCENARIO BUILDING STAKEHOLDERS MAPPING DELPHI TECHNIQUE TIME SERIES REGRESSION MODELS STOCHASTIC SIMULATION ECONOMETRIC MODELS PRIORITISATION Future-oriented visions Past & current data

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 4 The SWOT analysis Strengths (internal competences & capabilities) –What we have Weaknesses (lack of internal C&C) –What we lack Opportunities (external positive circumstances) –What we could get Threats (external negative circumstances) –What we could lose

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 5 Why SWOT? –Mapping Competences & Capabilities - what we have? What is available? …possible? …feasible?...reachable? –Mapping wide ranging issues - what we are? local, national & regional levels (themes, sectors) –Mapping longer-term implications - what to avoid/do? What are the positive/negative trends? –Mapping strategies - how to do? defence, attack, surrender, create alliances, etc.

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 6 Origins of SWOT No certainty Probably more than 2,000 years –Sun-Tzu in his 'Art of War' wrote: “Know your enemy, know yourself, and your victory will not be threatened.” “Know the weather, know the terrain, and your victory will be complete.”

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 7 Examples of criteria for SWOT Quality of best groups/sectors in Eastern Europe Quality of EE research in general Areas in which EE has a few outstanding groups/sectors Areas in which EE has strength in depth Other fields of critical importance Areas in which EE has a general absence of high quality research Areas in which the EE has ‘islands of excellence’ but significant weakness Comparative resources for research Effectiveness of knowledge transfer Spending priorities

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 8 History matters… (i.e. Romania) consider influences of Byzantine empire consider number of battles for independence consider influences of Ottoman empire cultural renaissance Romanian Revolution of December 22, 1989 –continued financial policies? –continued privatisation? –continued structural reforms? –continued growth in the Romania economy? –employment? –standards of living? –EU accession in 2007? –continued national pride and identity?

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 9 Starters for SWOT discussions Demographics (neighbours/EE) STEEPV comparisons (neighbours/EE) –Social –Technology –Economy –Environment –Politics –Values & ethics Uniqueness of Romania

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 10 Population (Romania & EE) Source: PRB 2002 World Population Data Sheet POPULATION ROMANIABULGARIAEE Mid-2002: 22,400,0007,800,000301,000, (projected): 20,600,0006,600,000279,000, (projected): 17,100,0005,300,000231,000,000 Change (projected %):

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 11 Comparison with EE (Population) Population projections (percentage changed from previous year)

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 12 Comparison with neighbours…(1/18)

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 13 Comparison with neighbours…(2/18) S OC

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 14 Comparison with neighbours…(3/18) T ec

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 15 Comparison with neighbours…(4/18) T ec

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 16 Comparison with neighbours…(5/18) T ec

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 17 Comparison with neighbours…(6/18) T ec

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 18 E CO Comparison with neighbours…(7/18)

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 19 Comparison with neighbours…(8/18) E CO

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 20 Comparison with neighbours…(9/18) E CO

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 21 Comparison with neighbours…(10/18) E CO

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 22 Comparison with neighbours…(11/18) E CO

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 23 Comparison with neighbours…(12/18) E CO

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 24 Comparison with neighbours…(13/18) E CO

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 25 Comparison with neighbours…(14/18) E CO

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 26 Comparison with neighbours…(15/18) E CO

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 27 Comparison with neighbours…(16/18) E CO

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 28 Comparison with neighbours…(17/18) E NV

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 29 Comparison with neighbours…(18/18) P OL

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 30 Rafael Popper PREST, University of Manchester, UK Questions (max. 5 minutes) Thank you!

First International Capacity Building Workshop in Romania - January 26, 2004, Bucharest 31 Exercise 2- SWOT for Romania 2025 (30 minutes) Please get together in 4 groups You will be assigned one of the SWOT elements Discuss about Romania C&C or lack of them as well as + / - circumstances affecting the country by 2025 –Nominate one group Facilitator & one Secretary –Use results from STEEPV exercise together with the regional comparison of this presentation as starting points for your discussion –Identify a maximum of 10 issues (up to 15 words each) –Rank the level of importance of each issue (1-10) and assign a level of uncertainty from 1-10 (10=very uncertain) –The facilitator will try to keep conversation alive/dynamic –The secretary will try to take notes of most relevant issues