E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 2ºC Global Scenarios Prepared for: Department of Energy and Climate Change August 2011

Content Summary Strategic Context Desired Outcomes Methodology E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 2

Summary Terms of Reference E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 3 Objective: Outputs: Timeframe: Develop medium/long term framework and scenarios of the global climate regime (covering the period with a view to 2030) Identify the political space and critical levers to enhance ambition in the medium/long term Undertake high level assessments of strategic countries/blocks with a view to developing proposals for further deep dive analysis 2°C Global Scenarios – including analysis of the political space, key political drivers to 2020, opportunities to leverage transformational change and implications for short- term action High Level assessments of strategic countries/blocks accompanied by draft proposal for developing follow up deep dives October 2011 – February 2012

Content Summary Strategic Context Desired Outcomes Methodology E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 4

Strategic Context New drivers shaping international dynamics around sustainable development  Resource scarcity and shocks are increasingly becoming a major factor which may have significant security implications  The rise of emerging economies and implications for international trade and access to resources  Fallout from the financial crisis and implications for global investment and corporations UNFCCC negotiations cannot successfully be resolved in the short-term  The current political cycle means that it will take several years to build towards the next ‘moment’ when global ambition can be increased to a level consistent with a below 2 o C trajectory is the likely medium-term window to build towards a review of ambition Need to build political conditions in key countries to unlock progress  Political will has drained for the international process, our ability to shape the agenda has been somewhat constrained. Instead our focus internationally has predominately followed the rhythm of negotiating powers, shifting tactics as opposed to red lines  The UNFCCC is crucial in delivering an effective response to climate change, but by itself it will never be sufficient. E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 5

Strategic Context Critical issues and trends to be addressed: – How will resource scarcity and volatility impact the transition towards a green economy – Identify emerging foreign policy and global energy priorities – How will the rise of emerging economies impact green growth and political confidence – What are the critical technology triggers to deliver 2 degrees – To what extent will climate security concerns catalyse domestic action – Which communities/interest groups will play a critical role in shaping international climate policy – What are the opportunities to regain political awareness around climate – Which coalitions can catalyse significant change E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 6

Content Summary Strategic Context Desired Outcomes Methodology E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 7

Desired Outcomes Enhanced understanding of the critical catalysts, opportunities and coalitions required to deliver 2°C pathway High level assessment of strategic actors to realising 2°C goal Medium/long-term roadmaps and scenarios – broadening analysis beyond annual COP interventions E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 8

Objectives E3G will develop three complimentary work streams: Develop medium/long term framework and scenarios of the global climate regime (covering the period with a view to 2030) Identify the political space and critical levers to enhance ambition in the medium/long term Identify deep dive strategic opportunities for analysis in key countries to identify opportunities for leveraging transformational outcomes E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 9

Content Summary Strategic Context Desired Outcomes Methodology E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 10

Project Flowchart E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 11 Assess key drivers and timelines Formulate scenarios and pathways Establish decision space Political intelligence mapping Close working with DECC to refine objectives Testing with key stakeholders Final report

Methodology – 2 o C Scenarios E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 12 Iteration process Gathering and analysing political intelligence Developing scenarios Political Economy Mapping Undertake political economy analysis through research and on basis of interviews Research and report on drivers of change and incentives in the global climate regime Identify key milestones, opportunities and processes for delivering outcomes Articulate critical assumptions underpinning scenario analysis Indentify decision- making space available Develop a political framing for each scenario Provide a compelling political narrative and frame for each avenue Identify critical countries for potential deep dive strategic analysis Identify key stakeholders to test proposal Test plausibility of assumptions Work with DECC to understand and develop recommendations Conduct high level strategic conversations and interviews with Senior EU, US and Developing country delegates and political aides, Investors and Financial community, security and foreign policy community; development and climate community Monitor the UNFCCC and near negotiations forums

E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 13 Expectations from HMG There will be some critical interactions required between HMG and E3G – Interviews to identify upcoming strategic economic, energy and security challenges (DECC, DFID, FCO, HMT, DBIS, MoD) – High level assessment of strategic countries (FCO, DECC, DFID, MoD) – Testing and refining scenarios and country assessments (DECC, DFID and FCO) Expectations on HMG, esp. DECC need not be burdensome – brief interviews and testing will be required from selected staff

Change Framework E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 14 Desired Outcome Generate Policy Options Map Politics Coalitions/Animation/Change Policies/Tools/Methods Probing/ Testing Real Choices

Project Gnatt Chart E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 15 Scenarios and Medium-term outcomes OctoberNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruary Gathering political intelligence Mapping political drivers Developing narrative and scenarios Testing Scenarios Drafting deep dive proposal Product