Photo: S. Allen, IFPRI “T HE C HALLENGE AND O PPORTUNITY OF P RIVATE S ECTOR C LIMATE R ESILIENCE ” Maximo Torero, IFPRI Cartagena 2016

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND RISK Moderate consensus that temperate regions will have increased variability in temperature and rainfall No consensus on tropical regions (IPCC AR4) But increased mean temperature increases risk

Climate change and Agriculture: what can we quantify? Changes in yields Water Temperature CO2 fertilization Changes in Pest and Disease Extreme events Climate Change Climate models: Global Circulation Models  changes in weather patterns (here 4 different models will be used) Agronomic models: Crop models  changes in yields at constant economic conditions (here different models will be used based on AgMip) Economic models: Impact on the economic systems, feedback of investments, specialization… (here we use the MIRAGRODEP CGE)

Figure 1. Impacts of climate change on global yields, area, production and prices of the 5-crop aggregate relative to baseline values in 2050 for each Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) compared across five models Note: ENV = ENVISAGE, FAR = FARM, IMP = IMPACT, MGN = MAGNET, MGP = MAgPIE. Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, LEI-WUR, PIK, Purdue, USDA-ERS, IDS Climate Change Price Impacts SCENARIO RESULTS

Average Impact of climate change (yield effects) on fruits and vegetables consumption per capita, %, by 2050 Geographical grouping Income grouping

Suitable for all categories business and personal presentation Stages of progression Public goods called for at each stage Social and Economic benefits Public sector, governments, NARS, CG centers (AFS) Ngo & foundations Other civil society organizations Subsistence smallholders Semi-commercial Small holders Commercial smallholders Advanced farmers PPPs (Public- private) PPPs (Private-private) Private for-profit sector through BOP sales Private not-for-profit sector (i.e. foundations) Public sector Civil society organizations Private for-profit sector (input industry, agro- dealers, processors ad buyers of produce) Public sector Civil organizations Private for-profit sector Public sector Civil organizations R&D partnershipsR&D partnerships Extension partnershipsExtension partnerships Seed systemSeed system Financial servicesFinancial services ConnectivityConnectivity Contract farmingContract farming Market accessMarket access

Examples of interventions to strengthen value chains and linking with private sector Policy reforms; tax and trade Third party validation of quality in milk marketing in Vietnam Contract farming incentives to increase regularity of delivery of milk in Senegal, with added incentives for child nutrition Quality grading of onions in Senegal Design of working capital loans for farmers’ organizations in Uganda to support aggregation for marketing and secure higher prices