Middle East Cold War

1979 Islamic Revolution Regional and Religious leadership aspirations Contest over direction of internal politics Dominance over Oil export policy Relations with the West Contest over the role of religion in governance Less ideological more identity based Alliances based on common enemies and common interests, (Iran, Syria)

Allies and Clients Revolutionary Bloc; Hezbollah, Syria, Hamas Status Quo Bloc; Saudi, Jordan Gulf States Divided; Iraq Unaligned; Egypt, Turkey, Qatar

Parameters Weak and failed states that invite in outsiders Sectarianism as a tool not a cause Alawite narrative Proxys non-state actors Material support and identity links

Cold Conflicts Yemen, Bahrain, Egypt, Syria/ Iraq, Lebanon, Iran; al Assad, Shia militias, Hezbollah, Iraq government, Hamas, Peshmerga Saudi; Salafi anti Assad groups, Free Syrian Army, al Sisi Yemen, Houthi Shi’ites 2009 Saudi invasion Lebanon, Civil War, 2006 War

Bahrain Bahrain uprising Quelled by troops from UAE and Saudi Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati “All Islamic countries, as long as they're not themselves involved in the crime, bear responsibility to support the Bahrainis in their fight,“ 70% Shi’ite Political Naturalisation 1981 Iran backed plan to depose al Khalifa

Egypt "The awakening of the Islamic Egyptian people is an Islamic liberation movement and I, in the name of the Iranian government, salute the Egyptian people and the Tunisian people,“ Ayatollah Khamenei Egypt under Mubarak an ally of Saudi Arabia The revolution represented and opportunity for Iran to gain influence Egypt’s position not yet determined

Turkey; A Populist Approach Turkey: Support for Hamas, MB in Egypt, opposed to al Assad, Kurdish Question Turkish model, Post authoritarian transition AKP, A populist voice

Qatar: The Little Hegemon Soft Power hegemony Support for Islamists groups Regional conflict negotiator Balanced relations with the West Hosts Top Universities Al Jazeera

Palestine/ Israel Israel seeks to maximize security but is unable to exert real influence beyond occupation Israel Palestine conflict serves as a point of legitimacy for hegemonic aspirants.

International Relations Loyalties formed during the global Cold War Russia and China pragmatic powers seek stability US, West seek to maximize influence Shia Crescent Détente, 1997 Muhammad Khatamemi, Dialogue of Civilizations Amadinejad, Invasion of Iraq, Arab Spring

Iraq 2003 invasion changed MECW dynamics Saddam Hussein a regional stabilizer, Limiting hegemonic ambitions through non-alinement Iran gains influence Saudi Arabia put on the defensive Jihadist return to the region

Syria\Iraq War ISIS as a unifying element? The rise of ISIS and the existential struggle it represents forces powers to abandon rivaled regional ambitions for co-operation 62 Coalition countries Unlikely partners; Assad regime, Iraq government, Hezbollah, Jordan, Saudi, US, UK, Iran

Politics of the Middle East Palestine Israel Conflict

Mandatory Palestine Balfour Declaration 1917, “His Majesty's government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people” Influx of Jewish Migrants, Jerusalem Riots 1920 White Paper Limited Jewish immigration 1929 Riots, 116 Arabs 133 Jews killed Hebron Massacre 67 Jews killed 1931, 17% of Palestine Jewish Arab Revolt Civil War

1948–1949First Arab–Israeli War 1951–1955Reprisal operations 1956 Suez War 1967 The Six-Day War 1967–1970War of Attrition 1971–1982Palestinian insurgency in South Lebanon 1973 Yom Kippur War/ October War 1978 First South Lebanon conflict 1982 First Lebanon War 1985–2000 Second South Lebanon conflict 1987–1993First Intifada 2000–2004Second Intifada 2006 Second Lebanon War 2008–2009Gaza War 2012 Operation Pillar of Defense 2014 Israel–Gaza conflict

Palestinian Liberation Organisation Founded 1964 Arab League Summit Objectives: Liberate Palestine through armed struggle 10 factions the largest Fatah Granted UN observer status 1974 Labeled a terrorist organization until Madrid Conference recognized right of Israel to exist

Yasser Arafat, PLO Chairman 1969 Advocated guerilla warfare War of Attrition 1970 Black September 1974 Ten Point Plan, Establish a State, Rejection of Israel, Right of Return 1982 relocates to Tunis 1 st and 2 nd Intifada 1995 Taba Agreement 1996 Arafat wins Noble Prize 2004 Death of Arafat 2005 Mahmoud Abbas

First Intifada A road accident involving the IDF and 4 Palestinian deaths at a refugee camp in Gaza Iron Fist Policy, Post 1967 occupied territory extrajudicial killings, mass detentions, house demolitions, forced migrations, relocations and deportation High unemployment, increased population density 40% of Palestinians working in Israel, border restrictions Boycotts, strikes, stone throwing and Molotov cocktails 80,000 IDF deployed 1,162–1,204 Palestinians killed 100 Israeli civilians and 60 IDF

James Baker, US Secretary of State “Israel should abandon its expansionist policies” Madrid Conference, Syria Lebanon, Jordan, PLO, Israel Oslo I 1993 Oslo II (Taba) 1995 Palestine gains control of civil affairs, Safe passage of peoples, economic cooperation

Assassination of Yitzhak Rabin 4 November 1995, Yigal Amir Netanyahu, Rabin “removed from Jewish tradition and Jewish values.” Annual rally, 33,000 attended in 2013 Yonatan Ben Artzi“ My grandfather was murdered over peace, and you owe us all peace.

Second Intifada Sparked by visit of Ariel Sharon to Temple Mount Election of Netanyahu, failure of Oslo Jerusalem, Temple Mount, Right of Return Deaths, 3000 Palestinians, 1000 Israelis, 64 others Sharm el Sheikh Summit 2005

Separation Wall 1949 Armistice Line 700 Km Construction began 2002

Settlement Land, who owns it 4 th Geneva Convention, Protection of civilians privately owned land can not be part of a settlement, unless the land has been confiscated for military purposes Over 120 settlements 382,031 West Bank, 300,000 East Jerusalem 20,000 Golan Heights Freedom of Movement restricted

Right of Return and Condition of Refugees Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Post Conflict Policy first-generation refugees and descendants have a right to the property they or their forebears left behind or were forced to leave Compensation in lieu of return Israel regards this as an unrealistic demand

Jerusalem Netanyahu "Jerusalem belongs to the Jewish people and will remain under Israeli sovereignty for eternity.“ UN international city PNA, An open city with freedom for all to worship

Temple Mount or Haram al Sharif Dome of the Rock Night Journey Al Aqsa Mosque Western Wall