Beyond 2011 Voluntary Sector Statistics User Event Minda Phillips Amelia Ash

The Beyond 2011 Programme Why change? – Why look beyond 2011? Rapidly changing society Evolving user requirements New opportunities – data sharing Traditional census – costly and infrequent UK Statistics Authority to Minister for Cabinet Office “As a Board we have been concerned about the increasing costs and difficulties of traditional Census-taking. We have therefore already instructed the ONS to work urgently on the alternatives, with the intention that the 2011 Census will be the last of its kind.”

Programme Purpose Not ‘scrapping the census’ Look at ALL of the options Find out what REALLY matters to users Work out ways we could deliver this.... and recommend the best way forward DRIVERS : Cost, efficiency, intrusion, burden CRITERIA : Cost V social and economic benefit of outputs, privacy, public acceptability, risk etc Recommendation in Sept 2014 (or earlier) Develop a business case & plan to take it forward

Government Spending 2010 Cost of the 2011 Census – £50m / year Source: guardian.co.uk

population estimates population characteristics outputs detailed design procure / develop develop / test ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION detailed design developtestrehearserunoutputs TRADITIONAL CENSUS SOLUTION research / definition initiation BEYOND 2011 ‘Phase 1’ Sept 2014 recommendation & decision point Beyond Timeline - the key decision

Beyond 2011 : Statistical options Aggregate analysis Full (100%) linkage Partial (1%?) linkage Address register + Survey Administrative data options Full Census (long form to everyone) Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period) Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample) Short Form + Annual Survey (US model) Census options Survey option(s)

Beyond 2011 : Statistical options – leading options linkage of admin data Administrative data options (Largely Internet) Full Census (long form to everyone) Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period) Short Form + Annual Survey (US model) Census options annual rolling survey 10 yearly survey + OR + 10% check in 2021??

Potential data sources ? Population data (age and sex) NHS Patient Register DWP/HMRC Customer Information System Electoral roll (> 18 yrs) School Census (5-16 yrs) Higher Education Statistics Agency data (Students) Birth and Death registrations Attributes (everything else) Attribute Survey (large to begin with) Admin data (some)

Customer Information System (DWP+HMRC) Patient Register Linkage Of Administrative Sources Electoral Roll Resident Population Missing includes: Some migrant worker dependants Some international students Undocumented asylum seekers Extras includes: Some ex-pats Some deceased Short-term migrants Higher Education (HESA) School Census ALWAYS SOME PEOPLE MISSING (but same with census)

Comparison of SPD 5 against 2011 Census estimates

Admin data compared to 2011 Census - Population Pyramid Good results at national and LA level Focus now on small area geographies and data about small populations Already encouraging results down to MSOA/Ward level

Emerging view Increasing confidence that a solution based on reusing administrative data seems feasible Admin data direction of travel seems feasible - but how quickly can we prove the quality? Likely to need: legislation – data sharing and compulsory surveys? a full understanding of real benefits of small area data – and data about small populations – to make the case for funding To understand what matters to users in the key trade-off

The key trade off Census solution More data, for smaller areas Better quality at lower levels A more complete national benchmark & continuity Admin data solution Lower cost, reuse of existing data, more efficient Fewer questions - lower burden More responsive, more frequent, more up-to date outputs Good data every year rather than great data every 10 years Clear trade-off – upon which we will be consulting

Voluntary sector use of census data

Aim of voluntary sector research To gain a clear and comprehensive understanding of user requirements, and make an assessment of the value placed on the information.

Approach so far Statement of User Requirements: Background research to gain an understanding of the sector – size and scope of its activities Contacted the Top 50 organisations and ONS colleagues Focussed on a number of key questions Responses from a number of charities, including:

What you’ve told us…. High level geographies Basic population counts For monitoring / information purposes Supports activities, but does not necessarily add financial value Would ideally like more frequent data

The business case Need to submit a business case to secure funding so benefits must exceed costs (Census and Beyond 2011) Business case will get closely scrutinised We expect the case for producing population estimates to Local Authority level to be strong But the case for producing attribute and lower level data will be harder

How you can help... Please review our Statement of User Requirements In particular…. Let us know how population and socio-demographic data are used and add financial benefit to your organisation What difference does it really make? Are you not just used to having it? Do you need attribute data or information at small area level?