Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level C-Change in GEES Changing Coastal Environments Session 4 Session 4: Predicting Future Sea Level

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Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions Considerations in modelling sea level Global mean sea level and IPCC projections: Thermal expansion Land ice melt Local/Regional projections Session Outline Photo: alles-schlumpf (flickr.com)

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Atmosphere General Circulation Models Mathematical simulation of climate systems Inputs of temperature, pressure and water vapour in cells (horizontal and vertical components), CO 2 concentration etc Radiation code describes incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation Parameterization of processes: convection, conduction, cloud cover, albedo etc.

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Coupled Ocean Atmosphere General Circulation Models Development of the climate models used by the IPCC Incorporates ocean and atmospheric processes with set parameters for fluxes between the two Examples: HadCM3, GFDL, CM2.X HadCM3 is used in IPCC climate change forecasts Higher resolution in the tropics to better account for the intricacies of ENSO [Fig 1.2. p.99] Le Treut, H., et al. 2007: Historical Overview of Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Atmosphere Ocean Interactions The oceans and atmosphere store and exchange energy in the form of heat, moisture, and momentum The circulation of the oceans is affected by variations in atmospheric circulation. Vertical motions in the ocean are critical to the exchange of heat and gases such as CO 2 between the surface layer and the deep ocean. Interannual variations in upwelling at the coast create fluctuations in biological production in coastal ecosystems – trends in upwelling related to climate change? Information courtesy of NOAA-PFEL

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Current Contributions to the Sea-Level Budget Density and thermal expansion Ice melt contribution Terrestrial Storage Isostatic changes Lag times Local variation (‘sea level is not level’) Estimates of the various contributions to the budget of the global mean sea level change. Shows some discrepancy between observations and estimate: other factors or inaccuracies? 1961 to 2003 (blue) and 1993 to 2003 (brown). Figure 5.21 IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, Set al.(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Density and Thermal Expansion Global sea level change due to thermal expansion for 1955 to 2003, based on Levitus et al (2005a, black line) and Ishii et al (2006, red line) for the 0 to 700m layer, and based on Willis et al (2004, green line) for the upper 750m. Thermal expansion is the key contributor to sea-level rise and is likely to continue to be over the next century Non-linear relationship between warming and expansion – depends on initial temperature and pressure Average rate of sea-level rise caused by ocean heating (for m layer): 0.40 mm yr -1 between 1955 and mm yr -1 between 1955 and 2003 (Antonov et al., 2005) Figure TS.16. Solomon, S. et al (2007) Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Ice Melt Contribution Important distinction between land ice changes (which affect sea level) and sea ice changes (which do not) Eustatic and isostatic effects Uncertain effect of ice melt on saline properties of oceans – secondary effect on density, upwelling and circulation Mitrovica, J.X., M. Tamisiea, J.L. Davis, and G.A. Milne (2001) ‘Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea level change’. Nature 409 ( ) Table 5.3. Solomon, S. et al (2007) Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Terrestrial Storage of Water Groundwater storage, permafrost and lakes Climate changes – temperature and precipitation – are likely to affect groundwater storage and permafrost Terrestrial storage changes may only be significant over geological time scales – influenced by tectonic movement Continental water balance models: Land Dynamics (LaD) Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A. and Gennero, C. (2003) ‘Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise’PNAS 100(23): National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A © 2003

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Modelling Isostatic Changes Isostatic changes cannot be incorporated into global models because of local intricacies and influences Not only affected by mass loading/unloading but also: Crustal thickness Rock density Gravitational field Horizontal movements etc… Processes remain poorly constrained and difficult to quantify Deviations from the theoretical gravity of an idealized smooth Earth NASA GRACE mission image (nix.nasa.gov)

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Lag Times and Uncertainties Dispute over long term relationship between GHGs, temperature change and sea-level rise: Sea levels likely to continue to rise even after atmospheric temperature increase has stopped (remember oceanic thermal inertia). But disputed and uncertain. Isostatic change lag times Uncertainties over density changes in deep ocean and vertical heat transfer Model factors such as cloud formation and inland water storage remain poorly constrained and uncertain Spatial resolution Scenarios and projections rather than predictions Meehl, G.A. et al. (2005) ‘How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?’ Science 307(5716): Wigley, T.M.L. (2005) ‘The Climate Change Commitment’ Science 307(5716):

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level IPCC Projections Time series of global mean sea level. The blue area represents the range of model projections for the SRES A1B scenario. Beyond 2100, the projections are increasingly dependent on the emissions scenario used. 4 SRES emissions scenarios provide the basis for future predictions Several different models Error margins In scenario A1B, global sea level reaches 0.22 to 0.44 m above 1990 levels by the mid 2090s BUT… usefulness of these predictions at the local level for coastal planning is limited FAQ 5.1, Figure 1. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, Set al.(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Local/Regional Considerations Several factors will influence sea level at the local/regional scale: Change in local mean sea level, change in tidal range, change in storm surge heights, vertical land movements IPCC concentrates only on mean sea level (thermal expansion and ice melt) Incorporating isostatic changes through integrating geophysical models may improve understanding Still require improved understanding of impacts on tidal ranges and storm surge heights Gehrels, R and Long, A. (2008) ‘Sea Level is Not Level: the case for a new approach to predicting UK sea-level rise’ Geography 3(1): 11-16

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Session Summary Projecting future sea level is done through Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models and an understanding the links between atmospheric change and oceanic changes Some of these links remain poorly constrained IPCC projects global mean sea level based on emissions scenarios Projections consider thermal expansion and ice melt only Difficult to translate global projections into local/regional projections, which are also dependent on changes in tidal range, storm surge heights and vertical land movements

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level References Antonov, J. I., Levitus, S. and Boyer, T.P. (2005) ‘Thermosteric sea level rise, 1955– 2003’ Geophysical Research Letters, 32. Bindoff, N.L., et al. (2007) ‘Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level’. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Gehrels, R and Long, A. (2008) ‘Sea Level is Not Level: the case for a new approach to predicting UK sea-level rise’ Geography 3(1): Meehl, G.A. et al. (2005) ‘How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?’ Science 307(5716): Mitrovica, J.X., M. Tamisiea, J.L. Davis, and G.A. Milne (2001) ‘Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea level change’. Nature 409 ( ) Wigley, T.M.L. (2005) ‘The Climate Change Commitment’ Science 307(5716):

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Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES Themes 2 and 3: Changing Coastal Environments – Predicting Future Sea Level AuthorDr Katie Szkornik Stephen Whitfield Institute – OwnerKeele University, School of Physical and Geographical Sciences TitlePredicting Future Sea Level Powerpoint Presentation Date CreatedDecember 2009 DescriptionPredicting Future Sea Level - Powerpoint Presentation – Part Four of Changing Coastal Environments Educational Level3 Keywords (Primary keywords – UKOER & GEESOER) UKOER, GEESOER, modelling, Climate Change, Projections Creative Commons LicenseAttribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales Item Metadata